Sorry still very busy at the moment. Hopefully things should become quieter by the beginning of April. In the meantime here is a quick starting post for the April thread. I will try and post more details later in the week.
March turned out to be rather warm. I thought it could be quite a bit above average but not quite as warm as we have seen.
Please post your predictions for April in this thread. Entries can be made until 23:59 on the 2nd (Sunday evening) without penalty.
Historic summary for April
1971-2000 8.1C
1981-2010 8.5C
1996-2015 9.0C
Generally April has been a very warm month in recent times but three of the past five April's have seen a CET of 7.5C or below including last year. That said 2014 saw 10.2C and four of the past 10 April's have been above 10C.
Latest model output
850's looking generally on the mild to very mild side throughout
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=205&bw=&lat=51.7522&lon=-1.2560&zip=
https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim
Met Office contingency planners
There seems to be a very strong signal for a warm April. Probability of temperatures falling into the warmest category is 45%. Very unusual for it to be close to 50% in the warmest of 5 categories. High pressure expected to be to the east of the UK bringing in warm southerly winds.
If this pattern were to persist for much of the month the CET will surely exceed 10C and potentially be in line to challenge the record April CET. Very interesting.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-amj-v1.pdf
Edited by moderator
29 May 2017 13:33:12
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