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That seems awfully high Brian. A standard exposure I assume? I'm in the same general area as you (was actually in Berko til recently) and as of midday yesterday the soil in my garden remained solid to walk on. It certainly didn't feel like a double figures spring like afternoon. Maybe 7 to 8C at a push
Yes. I'm recording 3.1C today at 12:40.
Always check the GEFS and mean, and again the control and OP are masking a similar trend of the high just hanging about. I’m not saying it won’t wander west and north but there’s really no greater probability now as there was a week ago. Keep trying.
Absolutely; there’s really little point in just following the Op run down whatever garden path it’s decided to take.
This tells us all we need to know about the evolution produced by the Op: towards the end of the run it’s in the coldest 10%. Not an outlier, but to be treated with caution.
Absolutely; there’s really little point in just following the Op run down whatever garden path it’s decided to take.This tells us all we need to know about the evolution produced by the Op: towards the end of the run it’s in the coldest 10%. Not an outlier, but to be treated with caution.
Yes, a trend downwards and if you look at all the GEFS in FI, they do paint a rosier picture than recently. Just need to see if this builds and grows as it moves forward. But isn’t that the same as ever. Still I feel much more positive looking at the last 24 hours trends. martin
it’s good to have op and control onboard with a scenario towards the end finally, the control has been hinting at this for 5/6 runs. The control was best at picking up the cold spell last year so there is hopefully something in it. But as you say until it’s closer and supported it is just another scenario
seems ambitious. What are these ‘signs’ ?
I think it's important to remember that the control is run at a lower resolution and we all know that tiny changes can throw the evolution off in a different direction; changes that the lower res might miss.
Anyway, the next show is about to start; I can see the curtains twitching.
I think it's important to remember that the control is run at a lower resolution and we all know that tiny changes can throw the evolution off in a different direction; changes that the lower res might miss.Anyway, the next show is about to start; I can see the curtains twitching.
it’s all just a bit of fun at the end of the day! Hopefully something cold will come of it
Brrrrrr!!!
I reckom that if by about the 25th we do not get more substantial cold developing to our east we can look forward to first sign of spring end of the month.
I'm not seeing much sign of spring on the GEFS. Looks like a downward trend towards the end of the month with quite a cold cluster of runs.
A welcome change from the usual westerly January at any rate (even if today has been a bit grey, with some rain due overnight).
I'm not seeing much sign of spring on the GEFS. Looks like a downward trend towards the end of the month with quite a cold cluster of runs. A welcome change from the usual westerly January at any rate (even if today has been a bit grey, with some rain due overnight).
I agree but we have been here before. I think something will happen and we will see cold. Amazing that over in Eastern Europe there is distinct luck of sustained cold air. In the balkans they had a few days of below zero and some decent snowfall but temperatures never went into deep freeze.
Lets see what happens and not too long to wait. If it goes the wrong way by the end of the month I think we will get a taste of spring.
ECM T240 is a bit
Not too far from a return to zonality, which is a pretty big departure from recent runs.
End of January and early February show a cooling trend but it's all extended FI range but the GFS ENS trend for it to turn cooler or colder is still there:
Potential