ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Royal Tunbridge Wells | Weather.us
As with yesterday, definite signs of a cool down to average or a touch below on the ECM ens and broadly all models agree that the extremely mild interlude caused by HP just to the South won't last more than a few days. There's varying degrees of enthusiasm amongst the various op runs for amplification of the pattern but it's a signal that keeps cropping up.
Overall nothing to get excited about but equally nothing to get too despondent about (if it's cold you like), with enough hints of potential to keep model viewing at least vaguely interesting.
On the 'toppler' comments front - I'd rather have 2-3 days of chilly or cold weather and the chances of snow that brings to favoured spots (not MBY!) than the mostly mild, nondescript c**p we've had here for the last couple of weeks. The general pattern also seems to be one where the jet is far enough south that the UK is generally on the cold side. Again, not usually any good for here but can bring surprises further North, particularly if there's enough of a colder plunge ahead of the next Atlantic LP.
A decent cold spell isn't shown, the odd outlier aside, some chilly seasonal weather is and in January that's enough for some interest for some areas at least
(And just to pick up on ballamar's comment - if you advected 850s around the -10c mark from Scandi (about the best that cold pool has by that point, it'd be cold and even without the colder 850s hitting us the air at the surface is still only 3-4c at best for most areas. A Feb '91 classic it isn't but it's still a cold setup, as always it'd need luck to bring colder upper air over us. All a bit academic as it's one chart at the end of one run albeit something the GFS op has toyed with a bit recently).
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