Does the fact the ground is still wet surpress the temperatures by a degree or two? 10 days ago parts of the south were bone dry...that has now changed markedly.
Now don't quote me as hydrographers will be better at this I'm sure, but the deeper ground is quite dry and it will only take a few days of this strong solar heating and a bit of a breeze to dry the very surface out, which is what has been altered by recent rains. By the weekend, we're effectively looking at dry soils. Local pools, quags and dew ponds are barely damp. One I know in a dank wood near Romsey has always seemed to have standing water even in July and August, even in 2013, but this year the recent rains have muddied the surface enough to let the yellow irises bloom, but no more.
It will all depend on a perpetuation of those warm uppers, I reckon, with high insolation levels and a pressure alignment to scupper the sea-breeze.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.