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With 15C+ uppers and 564+ dam line forecast widely (GFS,ECM) to drape the UK by the end of the coming week, I looked for this thread in search and it delivered no results. Perhaps admin can remove this if it's found?
It'll be hard to get date records- every day from 21st (bar 26th) has a 30C+ date record, but there could be some high night temperatures, particularly next weekend. Long way to go, mind.
With upper air temps of 18C on some models there is a chance of an all-time May record. The figure to beat is 32.8C, and GEM has large areas of England at 33C on Saturday, for instance.
Yes indeed Rob; that heat builds on GEM's warm night projections- temps at 6am between 20 and 22C over a large swathe:
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gem/150_uk2mtmp.png?cb=476
Christ, if we're getting 17/18C 850s in May, then who knows what could happen if something similar sets up in late July!
im think something similar happened back in May 3012 around the bank holiday of that month...
Longest range forecast I've ever read Pictures.
Interesting period coming up. The South has a good shot at 30C + but there could also be some noticably high temperatures in NW England and North Wales this weekend given the wind direction.
I'd say 29C on Saturday is not out of the question somewhere like Manchester City Centre, Crosby and Valley.
Hoping any thundery breakdown can hold off until Monday night if possible.
Yep the last time a heatwave lasting more then 3 days with temps in the mid to upper 20's / low 30's happened in May in the UK was back in 2012.... Could compare other similar comparisons to this year and that so far too... 😏2008 also had similar heat in May...Just saying...Perhaps best to make the most of this heatwave...
So did 1995. In early May 1995 we exceeded 25C for 4 consecutive days.
The Mays of 1997 and 2003 also had a few days in the mid/high 20s.
Just saying..
So did 1995. In early May 1995 we exceeded 25C for 4 consecutive days. The Mays of 1997 and 2003 also had a few days in the mid/high 20s. Just saying..
Nothing on the GFS max temps anywhere near 30C, which makes me wonder about a. cloud, b. onshore breezes, given the high upper air temps.What do Arome and other small scale models say?
Gfs temp charts are quite frankly appalling . Today they have a max of 21c in the East its already 24c prob get to 26c/27c later. 30c definitely on the cards later in the week.
Yes. I've found that on a sunny day in the summer you can add another 2-3C on to the temperatures shown by the GFS. It does very poorly with forecasting high temperatures.
It's curious. Many stations in the east and south east are registering 23C and 24C right now at 1330, but all the weather apps I have (met office for example) are forecasting that to be the maximum. I thought there was a little longer for heating at this time of day than that! I wonder if it's old model data predicting less just being nudged up to keep up with reality, or if something else is going on, like cooler air mass or some cloud floating across...?
Yes, some undercooking from GFS today- 21C was the best offered; we had 23C and less than a mile away 24C. That's today. The 850s don't look quite so warm at the weekend now-still above 15C though and the Beeb have announced 30C is a possibility. Not many 30s UK-wide in May. The 90s spells quoted didn't do that well. 2005 had a rogue one. 1944, 1922, 1947 were the ones.
Seems to me that the models are struggling with the movement of low-level airmasses out of NE Europe and through the likes of Germany and France prior to heading across to the UK. It seems that firstly there isn't quite enough modification upward by solar heating, warm ground etc. and secondly the cooling effect of the Channel Sea is possibly being extended too far inland.
These are just my musings though; not verified scientific statements on the matter. So they could well turn out to be a load of bull-doings