I seem to recall that the first week or so of March last year was quite cold here, coming as it did after a pretty mild winter.

March in my experience can either be very springlike or even almost summerlike as was the case in late March 2012, or it can be the exact opposite of that as we saw the following year.

the fact you have just said that March can be almost summer like really sums up how bad the Scottish climate is 😂

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2017021912/114-778UK.GIF?19-12 

It does still look like a brief chilly blast for parts is possible/likely for Thursday/Friday (and hopefully the more prolonged cold in the 06z op run in March is a one off blip not a trend!)

Sadly a few tweaks have meant that the mid teens seems much less likely for here tomorrow but is still easily possible for quite a few locations further south. 

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Only 2 posts since yesterday? - Wow! defo gone quiet on here.

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Only 2 posts since yesterday? - Wow! defo gone quiet on here.

That's because everyone are over at the UIA being busy putting the world to rights.  

Sorry, couldn't resist that one.

Back to about the models/weather, eyes are on two notable weather events this week. There's tomorrow's "warm" spell and a spell of rough-and-tumble on Thursday. Meto doesn't seem to be that interested in the latter, while the GFS does its trademark high-end scenario while ECM goes for the middle ground idea . . . ECM it is, then.  If and when that does arrive, it does look like being a daytime event (disadvantage is possible disruptions at rush hour) rather than a losing sleep at night time thing.

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That's because everyone are over at the UIA being busy putting the world to rights.  

Sorry, couldn't resist that one.

Back to about the models/weather, eyes are on two notable weather events this week. There's tomorrow's "warm" spell and a spell of rough-and-tumble on Thursday. Meto doesn't seem to be that interested in the latter, while the GFS does its trademark high-end scenario while ECM goes for the middle ground idea . . . ECM it is, then.  If and when that does arrive, it does look like being a daytime event (disadvantage is possible disruptions at rush hour) rather than a losing sleep at night time thing.

UIA?

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UIA?

Up In Arms!

I must be getting old, but I'm enjoying the warmer weather now. I've given up on ever seeing a proper winter again so we might as well go full throttle on climate change. The vineyards in Surrey produced wine as good as France last year.

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I must be getting old, but I'm enjoying the warmer weather now. I've given up on ever seeing a proper winter again so we might as well go full throttle on climate change. The vineyards in Surrey produced wine as good as France last year.

Don't forget that many parts of France get sharper frosts than the UK.

But I agree about enjoying the milder weather.  As I get older my interest in cold, snowy weather is as much about breaking up the dreary monotony of 3 otherwise rather grim months.

 

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There seems to be quite a strong signal in the GFS model for high pressure to form to the north of the British Isles in around two weeks' time.  It's been there for several runs now.

Tonight's 18z:

Evolves to a Scandi high following a pulse of WAA to end with this:

Still too far east and south to deliver to the British Isles but the repeating pattern is interesting.

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Up In Arms!

I WONDERED - I SEARCHED this on Google and this was what came up:

Ukraine International Airlines

 

 

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Some very cold 18z FI Ensembles: - What's more and more noticeable /notable is the reappearance of the Greenland HP which has been missing this winter. - Just a bummer this is in March and wasn't back in Dec/Jan.

11th Feb 2017 Deja vu!? But then for winds to turns south-easterly!?

 

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That GFS op could raise a few eyebrows if it was a trend!

That GFS op could raise a few eyebrows if it was a trend!

Surprisingly there also appears to be some support from this morning's ECM op run. 

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http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/00_384_mslp850.png?cb=207

FI and isolated in the spread, the OP gives a belter at the end of the run- but with the March sun doing its thing, even the near continent is given +ve temperatures despite the sub -10 uppers. Plenty of snow written into the mix, for some.

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That GFS op could raise a few eyebrows if it was a trend!

We have had so many decent scenarios snatched away from us this winter, we have to be cynical about any stellar output in FI. Interesting to see, but I shall only believe it when I see it is actually snowing outside my window :-)

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Huge amount of spread into March just look at the difference as well between the mean and op

Cue all the 'here's an example of snow in mid-March' 😉
I've enough garden paths now to last a lifetime so I for one will not be too bothered until it's within +72hrs.

It is a fairly consistent theme though ☺

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It is a fairly consistent theme though ☺

 

And here it is again on the 06z...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.gif

 

Edit:...which results in an irregular-shaped Murr sausage

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3241.gif

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And we're forecast to have another major strat warming by the back end of February to.

Plenty of active weather this wk but all eye's on the developments for Thu - Severe gales, heavy rain & heavy snow all possible. #onetowatchpic.twitter.com/ogHync8cOq

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am little more focused on the Low on Thursday which is due to go straight through the middle of the country with gale force winds, heavy rain and dare I say it snow.
I don't care about cold charts at 300 hours.

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