GEFS00z looks less cold in the mid term than yesterday's comparable set. However, it's still looking chilly with some snow flurries in eastern and possibly central parts this week. 

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Great models this morning. Lots of scatter on the ensembles but that would be expected with the complexities of the cold pool and alignment of high pressure.
ECM is a step forward from last night in the mid-turn.

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UKMO is a big upgrade from yesterday over a wider area-
At 96-120 it develops its on cold pool off the continent- dropping to around -8/-9 @120- this is an estimate off the 500s ( 522 thickness along 1022MB contour )

ECM... well shocking again- I hope that doesnt verify...
S

UKMO is a big upgrade from yesterday over a wider area-
At 96-120 it develops its on cold pool off the continent- dropping to around -8/-9 @120- this is an estimate off the 500s ( 522 thickness along 1022MB contour )

ECM... well shocking again- I hope that doesnt verify...
S

I looked at GEM first-truncated cold spell,ECM second truncated cold spell,METO next - upgrade and finally GFS

And yes GFS is the star this morning a strong easterly maintained throughout and fantastic support from  the ENS they really are stellar with a load of snow opportunities

Rough % of cold ENS

96H 100

144h 85

180h  90

240h  85

360h 50

So what chance other models following GFS?

 

 

 

 

 

Definitely a meandering high in the outlook today, after initial easterly could well end up a cold static high close to if not over UK. ECM sinks but looks like slowly away from poor runs yest

Snow and deep cold or not, I'm just pleased to see a high pressure orientated set up thus keeping the angry Atlantic at bay possibly lasting for the rest of February. That'll then take us nicely into March with the rapidly increasing daylight - however March can be, and usually is, a month of unsettled and changeable weather.

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UKMO is a big upgrade from yesterday over a wider area-
At 96-120 it develops its on cold pool off the continent- dropping to around -8/-9 @120- this is an estimate off the 500s ( 522 thickness along 1022MB contour )

ECM... well shocking again- I hope that doesnt verify...
S

Why can we never seem to get full cross model agreement in these situations? In January, we had ECM out on a limb promising a beasterly which never materialised and now we have ECM leading the spoiler pack.

You would think that given the same inputs, the models would have similar outcomes.

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Ukmo as has been said really is a thing of beauty today . 

From imby pov -

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.html  snow flurries getting heavier

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html heavy snow showers

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html heavy snow

 

Gfs is great longer term but not as good short term for imby. Further north it's great from day 3 to day 12.

 

 

Ecm not bad day 3 to 6 then goes massively Pete Tong again. But cold until day 8 so better than yesterday

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1201.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

 

 

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Why can we never seem to get full cross model agreement in these situations? In January, we had ECM out on a limb promising a beasterly which never materialised and now we have ECM leading the spoiler pack.

You would think that given the same inputs, the models would have similar outcomes.

I think all the models have become more volatile in the mid to longer term today, so does that count as cross model agreement?! 

To be honest I think if you're looking for consistency beyond T+120 then its really not worth the effort. The usual climb downs and climb ups are to be expected.

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Re Cross model agreement , if we are constantly comparing T+144 hours then it's no wonder we don't have agreement . At least there is reasonable agreement on the start of the cold spell now, in the T+60 to T+120 around the initial cold pool.

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We are not seeing an Italian low to prop it up nor heights over Greenland. so I think it will sink slowly and we will lose the cold uppers. So enjoy whatever you get up to 168

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UKMO day 7 looks good this morning, although more south easterly than direct easterly.
Apparently decidedly dry away from east facing coasts. East Kent could see some lying snow in favoured spots.

edit: CFS really looking like holding its reputation for bin fodder:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif

 

ECM Op much closer to the mean this morning after last nights crazy run

Longer term I just don't think the ecm can be that wrong and we will see the gfs merge to a halfway house scenario which will still be cold but nothing that exciting. 

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Longer term I just don't think the ecm can be that wrong and we will see the gfs merge to a halfway house scenario which will still be cold but nothing that exciting. 

ECM was wrong in January, so why won't it be wrong now?

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Awesome output today.

UKMO looks potentially very snowy.

As we are in an easterly FI sits at 96-120 hours.

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

ECM's 10 Day Mean Chart for reference.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

Latest Verification Stats.

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ECM was wrong in January, so why won't it be wrong now?

 

The Law of Sod, that's why.

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ECM was wrong in January, so why won't it be wrong now?

 

Law of Sod yes. Not saying its got it nailed but a blended somewhat more boring solution as it merges with the gfs is my hunch. Hope I'm wrong .

Nearer term though could be a snowy weekend for many.

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Not bad at 66 hours away !
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn662.gif