Ukmo as has been said really is a thing of beauty today . 

From imby pov -

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.html  snow flurries getting heavier

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html heavy snow showers

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html heavy snow

 

Gfs is great longer term but not as good short term for imby. Further north it's great from day 3 to day 12.

 

 

Ecm not bad day 3 to 6 then goes massively Pete Tong again. But cold until day 8 so better than yesterday

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1201.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

 

 

I don't see how you can expect " heavy snow" from any of those UKMO charts. Cold cloudy and predominantly dry with maybe a spot of snizzle is my reading of them.

---

I don't see how you can expect " heavy snow" from any of those UKMO charts. Cold cloudy and predominantly dry with maybe a spot of snizzle is my reading of them.

 

Have a look a the Russian site has decent precipitation days 5 and 6 

---

A slight upgrade this morning that's for sure.

---

ECM not great into FI this morning. Crossing fingers that this isnt the start of a dry southerly in disguise. or Possibly start of spring in some sense.

Enough of that talk though - im no troll.

The GFS is where its at today 🙂

---

Could feel a tad wintry

---

Not a million miles from UKMO

---

Yes great gfs6z up to day 7 cold and the potential for decent snow for many especially over the weekend.

 

---

No point in taking anything else seriously beyond 120 / 144 .

Decent from GFS that's for sure

---

I have said it before, there are some people that could see the negative of a lottery jackpot win.
Scandi blocks notoriously difficult to model, dealing with a reversal of pattern is difficult at the best of times, but the weirdness of this year with still wQBO (which I think has probably scuppered what would have been a classic winter), with the PV being blasted has made it more so.
Get the block in place (which we do) then see what happens. Looking back at the 80's, they were always forecasting the block to be broken down, instead they just meander around. I believe we are seeing the advances in modelling picking up on the meandering.

 

My eyes at this point will now look toward the Meto and media for updates, as we have just seen (Meto 6z) BBC Weather just tweeting cold weekend with snow flurries.

---

Approaching FI now at 72 hours, even at this range the upgrades are impressive with much of the eastern half of the UK in sub -10c (850Hpa) air

---

Approaching FI now at 72 hours, even at this range the upgrades are impressive with much of the eastern half of the UK in sub -10c (850Hpa) air

Im not sure how necessary a -10 aimass is for snow in a Easterly type setup.

I'm hopping a few of us extreme southerners may also be able to sneak in a few snow showers in the -5 to -7 bracket. Looks possible 

Nice to see the 06z develop northern blocking in fi as well as another cold pool coming in from the east.

---

Good run from GFS

---

Significant long term interest on the 6Z as the 552 isopleth begins its pilgrimage to Greenland.

 

---

Purely fantasy BUT ....................BRRRRRRRRRR

---

Cold pool forming in situ over the UK. That's not something you see everyday

---

The 06z is a very very good run, but as others have said, there is no certainty the high will hold fast over Scandinavia to allow this kind of longer term evolution. The CMA best portrays a middle ground solution between GFS and ECM, so it would be best to assume something like that until theECM/GFS converge one way or the other....

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cma/runs/2017020600/cmanh-0-240.png?00 

(The CMA sinks the high initially, but then it rebuild strongly again by day 10..)

---

 

ECM was wrong in January, so why won't it be wrong now?

To be fair, I think that the situation we had 3-4 weeks ago ended up being something of a halfway house between the GFS and ECM solutions during that period. ECM seemed to be the keenest on an eatsrly spell around that time for a few days whereas GFS seemed to want to sink the HP to the west southwards towards Iberia. In the end we had a HP cell close to south-east England which as I say seemed to be a halfway house solution between what the ECM and GFS op runs had been suggesting.

Great GFS 06z run by the way!

---

NASA GEO5 has a roaring easterly towards the end

---

We don't need any Eastern European imports, when we can have our very own UK cold pool. If the GFS OP is to belived:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_252_mslp850.png?cb=492

They can use the FI part of this run in the Brexit negotiations.