Why? The QBO was about as westerly as it gets during Nov and Dec 2010 and it didn't seem to matter then!

And that is a great reminder to all that even if something is against us we can still get something wintry to the UK

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Cold but not the sort of cold that will please many on here I'm afraid...

LOL.  Maybe, but the snow probability line on the ensemble runs up to 30% on occasion and is >0 for all of week 2.

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Quite interesting 0z in FI. Mighty close to a proper Beast from the East.

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Yes, plenty of easterly options in FI, including this monster in Pert. 20!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-20-1-300.png?0

Generally, things have changed very little this morning save for the fact that the initial cold blast on New Years Day looks as though it will be a blink and you'll miss it event in the far south.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016122900/gfs-1-114.png?0

Round 2 seems to keep things interesting for the eastern side of the U.K. before a half hearted attempt to set up that easterly.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016122900/gfs-0-210.png?0
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016122900/gfs-0-312.png?0

Judging by the ensembles there are a few runs that make a better fist of it! The Operational is certainly one of the milder runs initially but then nestles back below the mean as we enter FI.
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=313&ext=1&y=127&run=0&runpara=0

Great model watching again this morning but all rather FI IMBY. Best just sit back and enjoy the ride!

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My view this morning on the GEFS is that FI sets in as early as t72 as there is considerable scatter in the ensembles early on, much more so than normally.

Having said that, the cold snap around 2 Jan is still on course, but its snow delivery potential is muted as other have attested to.

Beyond that, the GEFS now suggest a second cold snap peaking around 7-8 January (five days after the first) from a similar scenario, so expect it to be a fairly  dry , though it must be said there is the potential for the second bite at the cherry to deliver a bit more longevity than the first, possibly extending into a drier,colder spell, with a mid-lat high and possibly a glancing blow of cold for the SE.  But more runs are needed and we need to get much closer to the time before making any firm predictions.

Beyond that, well, well in Fantasy Island people will see what they want to see, barely 3 runs deliver a true easterly, so I am exercising caution.

WI

 

 

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My view this morning on the GEFS is that FI sets in as early as t72 as there is considerable scatter in the ensembles early on, much more so than normally.

Having said that, the cold snap around 2 Jan is still on course, but its snow delivery potential is muted as other have attested to.

Beyond that, the GEFS now suggest a second cold snap peaking around 7-8 January (five days after the first) from a similar scenario, so expect it to be a fairly  dry , though it must be said there is the potential for the second bite at the cherry to deliver a bit more longevity than the first, possibly extending into a drier,colder spell, with a mid-lat high and possibly a glancing blow of cold for the SE.  But more runs are needed and we need to get much closer to the time before making any firm predictions.

Beyond that, well, well in Fantasy Island people will see what they want to see, barely 3 runs deliver a true easterly, so I am exercising caution.

WI

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A shame its ECM 240 hours (again) but for me this chart is awesome and would no doubt go on to a notable easterly.

PV over Baffin.

Energy spilling SE'wards in the western Atlantic

Huge Mid Atlantic ridge with a good dose of warm air advection 

A huge arctic high extension appearing

Pressure dropping away over Italy.

Surely our time will come....surely ?

 

 

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A shame its ECM 240 hours but for me this chart is awesome and would no doubt go on to a notable easterly.

PV over Baffin.

Energy spilling SE'wards in the western Atlantic

Huge Mid Atlantic ridge with a good dose of warm air advection 

A huge arctic high extension appearing

Pressure dropping away over Italy.

Surely our time will come....surely ?

 

 

A decent chart there Steve, well in FI.  Just keep and eye out on whether the second northerly plunge is accompanied by a falling of pressure over the western Med and Iberia.  Unless the pressure falls there (which is a tough call)  I cannot see any easterly of note. More runs and a dose of caution needed?

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Morning all.
Some eye candy in FI whilst the usual downgrades apply nearer the time.
All very typical.

Morning all.
Some eye candy in FI whilst the usual downgrades apply nearer the time.
All very typical.

I guess you are half right. Interesting FI yes, but downgrades nearer the time?

There have only been very small changes in the output for the start of the new year, and beyond that the details are changing as you would expect.  

Two northerlies in some form of anticyclonic sandwich has been the trend for days now. That trend continues.

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The elusive classic easterly remains a mirage today.

I'd say we're really close syponotically speaking but as always it's over a week down the line and subject to vanish on the next run.

Met Office showing their true colours tonight with confirmed westerly QBO for the foreseeable winter phase.
I expect (with a heavy heart) a sizeable downgrade tomorrow 😩😤🤧😭

Can't see that downgrade yet...

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It looks like ECM op run was on the warmer side for the first 10 days, awaiting extended ensembles.
Martin

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@MattHugo81

Some very interesting longer term clusters from the 00Z EC ENS this morning, Scandy highs, to Greenland blocks and poss E'ly flow.

Just been through the latest ECM and GFS charts and would say overall these are the best runs so far. For me its the word potential and feels like Winter is about to take its grip. Not that's its bad out there right now looking at a white landscape and well sub zero still.

Might please a few

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Morning all.
Some eye candy in FI whilst the usual downgrades apply nearer the time.
All very typical.

Looking at GEFS ENS there are already signs of ENS shifting towards ds lees cold.At 360h around a third are cold Scandi nor gGreenalnd HP,a third are back to westerly flows and a  third variable location HP

Of  course there is still hope of .something coming offbut I would be happier whwn an dif the METO monthly  if the extended METO stars to mention snow.

 

And that is a great reminder to all that even if something is against us we can still get something wintry to the UK

Indeed, Marcus. It just goes to show that whether or not we get a decent wintry spell during any given winter in this country is not dependant on one factor in isolation.

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I have seen worse at three to four days out:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.gif 
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn782.gif 

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Indeed, Marcus. It just goes to show that whether or not we get a decent wintry spell during any given winter in this country is not dependant on one factor in isolation.

Quite right Dave, with the flip side of that being how many times have certain teleconnections been favourable for cold yet have failed to deliver for this part of the world. Steady as she goes is the operative word this morning.