theweatheroutlook

NickR
28 December 2016 21:32:05

Originally Posted by: pdiddy 


 


 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=18&lat=55.95854251&lon=-3.220&runpara=0


 


use this link and key coordinates in to the url... this allows every location to be viewed rather than just major cities.



Thanks! Shows how long it's been since I had the need to check the snowruns!

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
NickR
28 December 2016 21:37:54

Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 


 


Try this Nick R.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php


Click on the map for your location and it should produce the ensemble plot....



And thank you too!

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
White Meadows
28 December 2016 21:45:31
Met Office showing their true colours tonight with confirmed westerly QBO for the foreseeable winter phase.
I expect (with a heavy heart) a sizeable downgrade tomorrow 😩😤🤧😭
Gusty
28 December 2016 22:38:01

I'm not one to normally post charts at 200 hours but the signal for this second northerly is very strong at present !


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



doctormog
28 December 2016 22:39:04
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif  (510dam here on that chart! I'll believe that when it happens)
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Quantum
28 December 2016 22:52:15

Nice to see that 510 line!


Netweather GFS Image

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Chunky Pea
28 December 2016 22:52:59

EC15 a little less threatening tonight post day 10 with more in the way of Euro anticyclonicness than this morning's run. Too much wobble from run to run lately to be able to spot any worthy trend though.

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gandalf The White
28 December 2016 23:19:50

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


EC15 a little less threatening tonight post day 10 with more in the way of Euro anticyclonicness than this morning's run. Too much wobble from run to run lately to be able to spot any worthy trend though.



The London ECM ensemble post day-10 has the strongest clustering for a very cold spell that I've seen this winter. The Op takes that route on day 10, having tended towards one of the milder outcomes in recent runs.


Still some milder perturbations as is almost inevitable but they're scattered and in the minority.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Downdrafted
28 December 2016 23:29:35
Best charts in two years. Can't wait for the upgrades
Karl Guille
28 December 2016 23:34:25
I suspect that the 18z Ensembles may not be quite so good for the south tonight but it's just another variation of a potentially cold theme over the coming few weeks. Much milder IMBY in the shorts!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=226&ext=1&y=249&run=18&runpara=0 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
doctor snow
28 December 2016 23:39:18
The west Qbo seems to be very slack one we have not had hardly any westly winds in the south east last 3 months
Downdrafted
28 December 2016 23:45:54
I'm looking at the best charts since I took my daughter down the garden in a foot of snow 7 years ago. Very good. Let's see where mother nature takes from here. It won't be exactly like anything on show from from these logical algorithms.
Karl Guille
28 December 2016 23:48:12

It is only a matter of time before we see a decent Scandi High as there have been several failed recent attempts in the ensembles. Here the 18z Control gives it a good go!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-300.png?18


Meanwhile, FI looks to be cooking up plenty of winter fayre!


 


 


 


 

St. Sampson
Guernsey
Gooner
28 December 2016 23:57:15

ENS also looking good


P 1 (ish ) , 2 , 3 ( Belter ) , 4 ( ish later )  , 12 , 13 , 14 (ish ) , 15 , 17 , 18 ( lovely ) , 19 ( teasing Easterly later ) , 20


Some decent ones in that , only looked after 192 so well into FI , still plenty to play for.........................and be pleased about

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Karl Guille
29 December 2016 00:01:45
Not a bad night all in all Marcus!
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Rob K
29 December 2016 00:02:14

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Met Office showing their true colours tonight with confirmed westerly QBO for the foreseeable winter phase.
I expect (with a heavy heart) a sizeable downgrade tomorrow 😩😤🤧😭


Why? The QBO was about as westerly as it gets during Nov and Dec 2010 and it didn't seem to matter then!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
29 December 2016 00:07:15

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


ENS also looking good


P 1 (ish ) , 2 , 3 ( Belter ) , 4 ( ish later )  , 12 , 13 , 14 (ish ) , 15 , 17 , 18 ( lovely ) , 19 ( teasing Easterly later ) , 20


Some decent ones in that , only looked after 192 so well into FI , still plenty to play for.........................and be pleased about



The Op delivers virtually a week of ice days for London. I don't recall seeing anything that sustained for a long while.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Rob K
29 December 2016 00:08:20

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


The Op delivers virtually a week of ice days for London. I don't recall seeing anything that sustained for a long while.



Cold but not the sort of cold that will please many on here I'm afraid...

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
29 December 2016 00:14:55

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

Not a bad night all in all Marcus!


Fairly decent Karl I'd say


Even more so your lot won

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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