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Peoples memories are strangely short. This 2 week unsettled spell in the south has now killed the perception of summer 2017. Up to until 21/7 is was an absolute stonker..you wouldn't believe that talking to people though.
Here in Gloucestershire we had a good spell for about 9 days mid June, it turned cool & wet for the final week, then first 1 week July was good, but then started slowly deteriorating, and been very unsettled and showery since, temperatures well down for the height of summer. My personal view is not a stonker of summer, if not the few days in June, then very average but now poor summer. Maybe things will improve , I hope they do. !
Indeed Phil.The signal for an improvement from around the 11th has been consistent for a while now. How far north and for how long is up for debate.In weather lore the saying 'long notice long pass' should hopefully hold true to give the UK a rather better August.Peoples memories are strangely short. This 2 week unsettled spell in the south has now killed the perception of summer 2017. Up to until 21/7 is was an absolute stonker..you wouldn't believe that talking to people though.
Indeed Phil.
The signal for an improvement from around the 11th has been consistent for a while now. How far north and for how long is up for debate.
In weather lore the saying 'long notice long pass' should hopefully hold true to give the UK a rather better August.
The summer down here in the south has been average at best with just a few hot days.. without those hot days it would have been poor.
Even the metoffice said July was wetter and duller then average, with near average temperatures away from Scotland.
Will also add that June for England as a whole was warmer and wetter then average.
Its a location based thing to a great extent. The actual/anomaly maps I have posted in the CET threads at the end of each month do tell a story that for many the summer has been quite average, and for some, wet. We have lucked out this year Steve, with the extreme SE being blessed with that incredible June and then very decent July. August is up for grabs.
Here is the ECM 12z: a potential improvement in MSLP over Britain after the North Sea low moves off.
Nice having one's own thread
This morning's GEFS show the possibility of a warming and drying trend. As time progresses, naturally there is plenty of scatter, with the third of the month week offering a control run heatwave or operational unsettledness.
Not looking too bad at all.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/panels.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&lid=OP
Was still using the charts off of "old" wetterzentrale until they ceased recently.Not sure if its me but the new charts on wetterzentrale are a step backwards.The only feature I like is the facility to run charts next to each other.Don't like any of the charts.Anyone else with the same opinion.
What I have found interesting in the last couple of weeks or so is how the "old" wetterzentrale GFS charts are still updating right up to T+240, but then not beyond that. On my machine, the GFS charts for T+264 and beyond are still showing the 06Z run on Wednesday 19th July; this I think was the day the GFS was updated.
Any settled spell seems to be disappearing yet again the complete write off summer for the north of England and Scotland looks like continuing. Maybe the odd better day further south but nothing to great.
This morning's EC15 run made for grim viewing but perhaps it is a once off.
What is next Saturday evening looking like for me? We're thinking of having family round for food and would like to cook paella outdoors. Am I fairly safe to arrange it?
Thanks David as did not realise it was still updating through the new site, up to 240.
Happier now can still see charts so familiar with.
A bit to far away to reliably forecast. GFS currently forecasting heavy showers over your location later on Saturday. No doubt this will disappear when the 18z run comes out! A weak ridge of high pressure nosing in from the south could will likely settle down the weather for the south but pesky fronts to the north will continue to threaten from time to time.
I'd say it's anything but safe in weather terms!
UKMO 11 August :
GFS 12 August:
UKMO 13 August:
The further SE the better the chance of bright warm weather as any frontal bands weaken as they encounter MSLP of 1020mb +.
I still see 11 August as potentially something of a turning point, for southern England at least.
A bit to far away to reliably forecast. GFS currently forecasting heavy showers over your location later on Saturday. No doubt this will disappear when the 18z run comes out! A weak ridge of high pressure nosing in from the south could will likely settle down the weather for the south but pesky fronts to the north will continue to threaten from time to time.I'd say it's anything but safe in weather terms!
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
Changeable
Or it might be easier to admit that the UK really isn't exactly a fresco/BBQ/beach type country. Anyway, I'll get back on topic and say that I do agree with WI with his thoughts, once we get past the mid-week gunk, the general outlook beyond that looks fairly useable for this neck of the woods, even if it does feel like pulling teeth at times.
Now this is what I call a very slack col-like set up for Friday.
Come on Exeter, no pressure!
Wednesday looks like a total washout down here but still some hints of drier weather after the weekend. Any signs of warmth seem to have vanished altogether though, I'll settle for a bit of sun!
Could be a wet couple of days or so for the drier parts of the UK. With better conditions for Edinburgh? With water levels very low locally and the local chalk stream in danger of drying up for the first time in a very very long while, I hope that these systems do manage to drop a lot of water in the places it is needed.