Convinced now that the blocking high over central & eastern Europe is having a big effect on our bad spell of weather. I would say in summer it has a bigger effect than the Greenland high? Just looked at Bolty's historical vid of 1990 , and it shows on the models ,to the east more lows and also that they are on the cooler side of the high. For some reason the Azores high struggles to build strongly over the western and northern parts, or join up.

Will keep looking at the models for the blocking high to weaken, although I think summer will be pretty much over by then.

Convinced now that the blocking high over central & eastern Europe is having a big effect on our bad spell of weather. I would say in summer it has a bigger effect than the Greenland high? Just looked at Bolty's historical vid of 1990 , and it shows on the models ,to the east more lows and also that they are on the cooler side of the high. For some reason the Azores high struggles to build strongly over the western and northern parts, or join up.

Will keep looking at the models for the blocking high to weaken, although I think summer will be pretty much over by then.

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Normally Greenland HP that linked with Scandi HP are very good for us because it deliver easterly winds that bring very cold air in winter and hot air in summer.  But when people say on the models that showing northern blocking, I didn't see any yet that show HP in Greenland and Scandi areas which we saw it last year Sept to October that brought the heatwave and then below average temps quite quickly in October.  HP anywhere really cannot stay in situ forever so eventually the one in the East that had been stuck there for too long will force to move further east as it should be due to W to E natural flow for N Hemisphere.

Plus Azores HP still can move in despite the HP to the east as it will link with it like it does linking of Greenland and Scandi HP that bring easterly winds all the way to USA.

Is this the start of something from GEM ? they have better output than ECMF at the moment, remember it was GEM that picked up the late MAY heat and good weather. Or just more wishful thinking and waiting.

Light appearing at the end of the tunnel as agreement grows for a return of warmth and high pressure.

Nice gfs this morning ecm probably more realistic and is basically crap. GEM a half way house.

GFS OP a considerable outlier this morning, we must favour a continuation of cool and unsettled conditions as the more likely as we close out the Summer. 

GFS OP a considerable outlier this morning, we must favour a continuation of cool and unsettled conditions as the more likely as we close out the Summer. 

As I remember, the ECM 12z op from yesterday evening looked a little less unsettled towards the end of the run than this morning's run does.

More runs are needed IMHO.

GFS OP a considerable outlier this morning, we must favour a continuation of cool and unsettled conditions as the more likely as we close out the Summer. 

The whole of that statement is factually inaccurate. The GFS Op is at the top end of the ENS this morning but it is not an outlier, let along a considerable outlier.

What we can see from the ENS very clearly is that we have another rather cool week to come this week. From next Sunday (20th) the ENS suddenly develops huge scatter. Basically anything is possible for the following week from a continuation of cool conditions to something very warm or a return to average. So to say we must favour a continuation of cool conditions is totally misleading.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=1140&lid=ENS&bw=

GEM ENS shows essentially the same thing. The scatter might look less but that is only because the scale on the vertical side of the chart is different because one run goes a bit bonkers and gets well above 20C.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gem&var=2&geoid=1140&lid=ENS&bw=

Looking at just the op runs there is good agreement between GFS, GEM and ECM of a warm up in a weeks time. But this has to be with low confidence at the moment given the scatter in the ENS.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=multi&var=2&geoid=1140&lid=OP&bw=

I see the asylum has opened its doors again. 

Looks slightly better this morning. Absolutely nothing set in stone, but at least there are a very decent spread of good runs. 

I see the asylum has opened its doors again. 

Looks slightly better this morning. Absolutely nothing set in stone, but at least there are a very decent spread of good runs. 

Well we briefly enjoyed some relatively troll-free times 

Meanwhile the GEFS ensemble set looks a tad better in FI  although next week continues messy

Ohhh dear. More account deletions on the way.

It has to be said that this morning's GFS op may not have been a "considerable outlier" at the day 9-plus period, but compared with the 50 or so runs on the ECM ensemble, it was very firmly at the top end of the temperature scale, as shown by the blue line:

Well, camping trip to Blakeney north Norfolk is very much on this coming week with only 2-3 mm forecast up to Friday morning :I hope this is reasonably correct!

Growing chance of a transition to warmer and more settled weather next week. Could be great timing for the Bank Holiday weekend and the usual September is summer offering.

Looking good and for once good timing.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/panels.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&lid=OP

Yes, there still looks like an improvement in the medium term but with the Scottish school summer holidays finished I would dispute the good timing bit!

Wouldn't be the first time that has happened Michael, assuming the models are proved correct about an improvement next week. In each of the last two summers the weather has improved to some degree after the schools in Scotland have started back, having been pretty naff during the kid's holiday time. A classic case of Sod's Law, IMO.