Steady as she goes this morning with tentative signs of a gradual pressure rise from the south and southwest in the 7-10 time frame.

850Hpa temps are slow to recover suggests that initially we keep air from of WNW'ly direction as pressure gradually builds from the SW.

I will take this output even  if it means a slow and steady and nervy recovery. 

 

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I think we are already at it worse peak this morning Gusty.  Surely cannot get any worse now and already took away 2 weeks of valuable summer time away.  Like you said the winds coming from the NW is strange because in winter when we have HLB we get easterly winds so why it not happening now?  We overdue for a proper nationwide settled weather.

Longer term Mean ecm charts look ok even good certainly the best we've seen for a couple of weeks . But the Ops are consistently more unsettled so jury still very much out that summer will return any time soon.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html

 

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If there is one thing the way the models have behaved over the past couple of weeks, in fact the summer as a whole so far, it is that we should treat all output for more than 3-4 days or so ahead with rather a large dose of salt.

After the let-down there was with the potentially long-lasting settled spell that both ECM and GFS teased us with about three weeks ago which they indicated to commence in or just after mid-July, I will not believe a proper settled spell in on the way until it is within the range of the UKMO runs.

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If there is one thing the way the models have behaved over the past couple of weeks, in fact the summer as a whole so far, it is that we should treat all output for more than 3-4 days or so ahead with rather a large dose of salt.

After the let-down there was with the potentially long-lasting settled spell that both ECM and GFS teased us with about three weeks ago which they indicated to commence in or just after mid-July, I will not believe a proper settled spell in on the way until it is within the range of the UKMO runs.

Agree Dave, the models have been all over the place so it's foolish to write anything off just yet. At some point over the next few weeks I'd expect the Azores high to have more of an effect for those in the southern half of the UK at least.

MetO have updated their MRF to the 28th August and it isn't pretty.

Basically, if you are north of Birmingham its game over and even for southerners any settled weather will be fletting, no mention of the nationwide mid month high pressure and a mobile westerly flow dominates instead.

Oh dear.

Andy

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If there is one thing the way the models have behaved over the past couple of weeks, in fact the summer as a whole so far, it is that we should treat all output for more than 3-4 days or so ahead with rather a large dose of salt.

After the let-down there was with the potentially long-lasting settled spell that both ECM and GFS teased us with about three weeks ago which they indicated to commence in or just after mid-July, I will not believe a proper settled spell in on the way until it is within the range of the UKMO runs.

I would agree broadly speaking David but it just appears to me that when models are showing mobile westerly unsettled conditions they tend to verify far more frequently than when they are showing something more settled. Probably because the prevailing westerly/south westerly is almost always the default setting and the models handle this setup much easier. Certainly I always feel more confident in the models when they are showing this type of pattern as invariably they all handle it pretty well and usually once this sets in it tends to stay set in for a considerable period of time which certainly appears the case at the moment sadly.

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I would agree broadly speaking David but it just appears to me that when models are showing mobile westerly unsettled conditions they tend to verify far more frequently than when they are showing something more settled. Probably because the prevailing westerly/south westerly is almost always the default setting and the models handle this setup much easier. Certainly I always feel more confident in the models when they are showing this type of pattern as invariably they all handle it pretty well and usually once this sets in it tends to stay set in for a considerable period of time which certainly appears the case at the moment sadly.

What I have found interesting about this summer is the way the jet has behaved. For all that southern areas had a generally better first half of the summer than further north, there were occasions even during this period when the jet dived south and brought noticeable rainfall to southern areas. I can recall at least three occasions during June when my area had rainfall from LP that had moved up from the SW, S and SE. This probably explains why Edinburgh had such a wet June, as was evidenced by the numerous posts in the summer moaning thread by John and Crespular Ray who both live there.

To my mind, the models seem to do best when there is either a straight west-east atlantic driven pattern that you mention above, or there is a very settled spell with a large anticyclone either over or near to the UK. From what I remember, the models were pretty consistent back in July 2013 wrt the development of the nationwide heatwave we had that month and it's longevity, and also the way in which it eventually came to an end. Perhaps the jet during that summer was rather less active that it has evidently been this season thus far and was a factor in why HP came to dominate during that particular month.

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MetO have updated their MRF to the 28th August and it isn't pretty.

Basically, if you are north of Birmingham its game over and even for southerners any settled weather will be fletting, no mention of the nationwide mid month high pressure and a mobile westerly flow dominates instead.

Oh dear.

Andy

And yet the models can't even get a handle of 5 days out let alone a month+

 

Oh dear.

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MetO have updated their MRF to the 28th August and it isn't pretty.

Basically, if you are north of Birmingham its game over and even for southerners any settled weather will be fletting, no mention of the nationwide mid month high pressure and a mobile westerly flow dominates instead.

Oh dear.

Andy

 

Summer is over?

 

Go on, say it... you know you want to

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ECM 0z shows ridging in fi this morning.

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Please keep discussion about Met Office forecasts in the media thread.

Also remember to stay on track and not give me an excuse to delete your account. Once an account is deleted it can't be restored and we're not taking new registrations. Out means out.

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Please keep discussion about Met Office forecasts in the media thread.

Also remember to stay on track and not give me an excuse to delete your account. Once an account is deleted it can't be restored and we're not taking new registrations. Out means out.

 

Just spotted your quote in the Metro. Not very hopeful are you?

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Just spotted your quote in the Metro. Not very hopeful are you?

Think it looks quite changeable but I wouldn't be surprised to see some warmer and drier spells returning, particularly in the south.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3907&title=August+2017+weather

I'm not in the "summer is over" camp at the moment. Still time for things to improve and September is like a continuation of the summer more often than not IMHO.

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Was looking at next week as I'm off to Devon for family hols from Saturday and tentatively it doesn't look too bad. 12z GFS has HP gradually nosing in for a few days and even before then we looking at showers at worst so no prolonged wet stuff.

In deep FI it goes very autumnal looking but take that with a pinch of salt etc.

What with this morning's ECM run showing HP nudging in after a few more unsettled days to come and things aren't looking bad in the mid range imo

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EMS for Loughborough.

A cool and changeable start to August.

Hints of something a bit warmer in deep fi.

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GFS 06 looking much better, well better than it has for the last 2 weeks, the huge high over central Europe looks to be breaking down, and the Greenland high seems to weaken too. We have some ridging building over the country, hopefuly the next runs back it up !

Some hope at least for settled weather ?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=336&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3

 

Let's hope so, the ensemble is still looking quite mixed though. There's a rise by mid month but many members stay low and the warm ones dip back quite quickly!

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http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850plymouth0.png?cb=249

Good to see a healthy spread after 10 days- how it should be; there was an awful consensus in the ENS 10+ day outlook a couple of weeks back- unusual and- it seems- prophetic. The restoration of the uncertainty is what you need at that scale.

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GFS 12Z op markedly more unsettled than the majority tonight, bringing cooler temps and more rainfall. Happy that it's an outlier but wary it could be on to something and put the final nail in the coffin for anything settled this month.

As I'm a glass half full type of guy, I'm still pleased to see the majority of the 12z data going for a pressure rise from the 10th. Quite how long it'll last is of course up for debate. Still a few warm/very/warm/hotter solutions teasing us in FI, probably down to the orientation of the high when/if it parks over us.

More runs needed!

Or at the very least, hopefully another positive ECM this evening... 

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