The past few days have certainly provided a North/south divide with probably 15c difference in max temps, someone could perhaps provide the exact figures.

 I'm in the middle where it's been very pleasant and I dare not be envious of those further South, as I sympathise with those in the North! 

Met Office Hadley             17.2c.          Anomaly       1.7c.    Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                          17.42c.         Anomaly        0.9c.

Netweather                       17.56c.         Anomaly        1.06c.

Peasedown St John         18.2c.        Anomaly          0.0c.

A quite impressive 18.3*C here which is 1.7*C above the LTA.

Based on model numbers for tomorrow it could reach between 18.7 and 19.0*C and then between 18.8*C and 19.1*C after 7th before it starts to ease down at the weekend.

Yet this will still be short of the monthly means for July 2013 (19.2*C) and July 2006 (19.7*C), which goes to show just how impressive those months were in these parts. Unless the models are some way off the mark with the middle part of next week, or an exceptionally hot spell occurs for a large part of the second half of the month, it will be hard for 2017 to challenge those numbers. This year has had a tendency to do the unexpected, though...!

FWIW, the hottest August in my records (2000-2016), which is the famous one of 2003, sits nicely in between those hottest two Julys with 19.4*C.

How do you reckon we'll be by the middle of the month. I get the feeling I've bollocksed my chances with 16.5C. Would not be suprised if we were on 17.5C by mid month and even more by the final week.

Shaping up to be an excellent summer in my part of the country.

16.5c will be ok for middle of the month

Met Office Hadley            17.9c.           Anomaly        2.4c. provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                         17.94c.         Anomaly        1.47c.

Netweather                      18.1c.           Anomaly        1.61c.

Peasedown St john         19.9c             Anomaly        0.7c. 

I wouldn't be surprised if it is 17.5 at mid month, which is my guesstimate for the month.  But if that's the case I have a feeling my guess will be too low and we could end up around 18c.  I won't complain though!  

The mean here for the first 7 days of the month stands at 19.74c. 

Average max = 24.8c

Average min - 14.7c

Met Office Hadley            17.9c.        Anomaly        2.3c. Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                         18.08c.      Anomaly        1.62c.

Netweather                      18.35c.      Anomaly        1.86c.

Peasedown St John       19.01c.     Anomaly         0.9c.

Actual outcome has just about exceeded the expected range; 19.11*C to the end of yesterday and with 19.31*C after today (as both max and min now known). Most models had last night 2-3*C cooler than it actually was, so today has gone from a slight reduction of the mean-to-date to a notable increase. Funnily enough the consensus for tonight's minimum has in the past couple of runs increased by 2-3*C and as such tomorrow may raise the mean-to-date even further, to near 19.4 or even 19.5*C.

So July 2017 will be battling with the best of them but of course next week looks cooler until at least Thursday, enough so that the mean is likely to slide a fair bit. Not beyond any possibility of recovery back into the 19s later though... 

The running mean here has reached 19.79c after yesterday's warm one (thanks mainly due to the warmer night).

Anything above 25c today here will send this mean upwards again.  The chance of reaching the heavyweight 20c mean is now just out of reach due to the cooler conditions from tomorrow.

Running mean as follows:

1/7 - 18.6

2/7 - 18.83

3/7 - 18.21

4/7 - 18.04

5/7 - 18.37

6/7 - 19.18

7/7 - 19.74

8/7 - 19.79

Lets take a quick look at the summer temperatures so far.

We are currently nearly 2C above the 1971-2000 mean and about 1.5C above the 1981-2010 mean in the CET area.

So very warm but how does this compare to other hot summers, notably 2006, 2003 and 1976. Well the chart below shows we are ahead of 2003 at this point but behind 2006 and well behind (nearly 2C behind) 1976. These stats are all again for the CET area.

Now of course temperatures have varied considerably north to south this summer. If we look at the figures for Heathrow as being broadly representative of the south and south east of England we see that the anomalies are somewhat different.

Currently at Heathrow the mean temperature this summer is 19.20C (to yesterday). The equivalent figure for 2003 is 17.85C and for 2006 is 18.28C. So we can see that in the south temperatures so far this summer are well ahead of both 2003 and 2006 - by over 1C in the case of 2003. The anomalies will probably narrow a little this week as it turns much cooler.

Heathrow is still well behind 1976 when the mean temperature at this point was 20.65C. So we are 1.45C below this which is a lot but still a 0.5C smaller anomaly than for the CET area.

So it is fair to say that for the south at least this summer has been exceptional so far.

Lets take a quick look at the summer temperatures so far.

We are currently nearly 2C above the 1971-2000 mean and about 1.5C above the 1981-2010 mean in the CET area.

So very warm but how does this compare to other hot summers, notably 2006, 2003 and 1976. Well the chart below shows we are ahead of 2003 at this point but behind 2006 and well behind (nearly 2C behind) 1976. These stats are all again for the CET area.

Now of course temperatures have varied considerably north to south this summer. If we look at the figures for Heathrow as being broadly representative of the south and south east of England we see that the anomalies are somewhat different.

Currently at Heathrow the mean temperature this summer is 19.20C (to yesterday). The equivalent figure for 2003 is 17.85C and for 2006 is 18.28C. So we can see that in the south temperatures so far this summer are well ahead of both 2003 and 2006 - by over 1C in the case of 2003. The anomalies will probably narrow a little this week as it turns much cooler.

Heathrow is still well behind 1976 when the mean temperature at this point was 20.65C. So we are 1.45C below this which is a lot but still a 0.5C smaller anomaly than for the CET area.

So it is fair to say that for the south at least this summer has been exceptional so far.

Great info there Simon. I have to say summer so far has been fantastic in my part of the country and to top it off - we had a very good June.

if the likes of the past 5 weeks or so is repeated til the end of August even allowing for a few interruptions this summer could end up in the top 5.

Met Office Hadley            17.9c.         Anomaly         2.2c.   Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                         18.09c.       Anomaly         1.62c.

Netweather                      18.38c.       Anomaly         1.88c.

Peasedown St John        19.3c.        Anomaly          1.1c.

Lets take a quick look at the summer temperatures so far.

We are currently nearly 2C above the 1971-2000 mean and about 1.5C above the 1981-2010 mean in the CET area.

So very warm but how does this compare to other hot summers, notably 2006, 2003 and 1976. Well the chart below shows we are ahead of 2003 at this point but behind 2006 and well behind (nearly 2C behind) 1976. These stats are all again for the CET area.

Now of course temperatures have varied considerably north to south this summer. If we look at the figures for Heathrow as being broadly representative of the south and south east of England we see that the anomalies are somewhat different.

Currently at Heathrow the mean temperature this summer is 19.20C (to yesterday). The equivalent figure for 2003 is 17.85C and for 2006 is 18.28C. So we can see that in the south temperatures so far this summer are well ahead of both 2003 and 2006 - by over 1C in the case of 2003. The anomalies will probably narrow a little this week as it turns much cooler.

Heathrow is still well behind 1976 when the mean temperature at this point was 20.65C. So we are 1.45C below this which is a lot but still a 0.5C smaller anomaly than for the CET area.

So it is fair to say that for the south at least this summer has been exceptional so far.

Really interesting comparisons, especially the graph, which clearly demonstrates the different timings for the 76 and 03 heatwaves. I wonder where 1983 and 1995 would sit in amongst this lot. I suspect we'd be well ahead of both at this stage, with indifferent Junes.

Thanks for this GW.

Amazing, didn't realise we were doing quite that well  - thanks as always  GW 

Last night was slightly (around 0.5*C) warmer than the model consensus here with a 15.5*C minimum, and today has already surpassed the 26*C consensus maximum, so the local mean-to-date may well make it over halfway towards 20*C from 19.

A drop is likely tomorrow, though it could be only slight as the arrival of the cooler air has been delayed enough that a very warm mid-late morning, peaking in the mid-20s, is a possibility.

A slightly cooler than average Tuesday will likely push the mean-to-date back into the 18s, though only just.

Wednesday then looks close to average, perhaps Thursday too as a cooler night is countered by a warmer day. Friday sees a tropical maritime flow establishing so not as cool by night but perhaps not that warm by day due to cloud cover.

Overall I'd say a local value in the mid-18s is likely by the time Friday is done. 

Then comes a weekend that looks likely to be dominated by a subtropical airmass down this way so the trend in the mean-to-date could well turn back around .

I expect this analysis of prospects is at least loosely valid for much of the CS and SE regions .

I have now added a few extra years to the table so we have all of the top 7 warmest summers in the CET series, which includes 1995 and 1983.

I have now added a few extra years to the table so we have all of the top 7 warmest summers in the CET series, which includes 1995 and 1983.

Shows how remarkable 1995 was: to turn it around from such a frigid start. I remember in the 3rd week of June wondering if summer had been permanently abolished.

1846 must have been a right bummer after June. But that June truly is spectacular, when you think June 1976 was a whole degree cooler.

Brilliant stuff GW, much appreciated (as will be the CET update for June when you have the time).

Today has been another effortlessly brilliant summer's day here on the south east coast.  Max of 26.4 and minimum of 15.4.

We are in an exceptional run.  I hope the cooler interlude will bring some much needed rain!

Anecdotally, I think that June was better than 1976 here, and July is running at 19.1, second only to the monumental 2006. 

But its been fabulous down here since about mid May, we are 2 months in and the possibility of a further 2 months of exceptional weather possible, if not probable.

Met Office Hadley            18.0c.          Anomaly       2.3c.  Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                         18.27c.        Anomaly       1.80c.

Netweather                      18.59c.        Anomaly        2.1c

Peasedown St John        19.7c.           Anomaly       1.5c.