Warnings issued now

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2017-07-06 

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 9 Jul 2017 to Tuesday 18 Jul 2017:

A band of rain is likely to move southeast on Sunday, although much of England and Wales will remain dry and sunny. As the front weakens it looks like Monday is set to be more settled with plenty of dry weather, but cooler in the north. Through mid-week a return to more changeable conditions is favoured with brighter and sunnier weather more likely in the south and east. Cloudier, wetter and windier conditions are more likely for the north with temperatures on the cool side of average. This changeable setup looks likely to continue through the weekend with a mixture of cloud and spells of rain, sunshine and showers, possibly thundery in the southeast at times.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Jul 2017 to Wednesday 2 Aug 2017:

A changeable start to the period is likely, however longer dry and warm spells may become more prevalent across much of the UK through the second half of July, and perhaps continuing into August, although north-western areas are still likely to remain more unsettled. Temperatures may be around average in the northwest, in contrast to some warmer spells particularly in the southeast.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Well that's it then. Average temperatures at best for the north and changeable up to Aug 2nd! So no summer up here basically! A cracking warm dry and sunny Spring though!

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Well that's it then. Average temperatures at best for the north and changeable up to Aug 2nd! So no summer up here basically! A cracking warm dry and sunny Spring though!

More like winter if this comes off! but it is extreme FI (GFS 0z at T+384)

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/00_384_mslp500.png?cb=708 

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More like winter if this comes off! but it is extreme FI (GFS 0z at T+384)

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/00_384_mslp500.png?cb=708 

Lovely! Not a snowball's chance in hell of that coming off though.

In the meantime, an interesting forecast for tomorrow down here from the Met Office:

Thursday:

Thunderstorms will become more widespread, and probably locally severe with hail and large amounts of rainfall. Later thunderstorms drift away northwards, drier conditions follow. Generally very warm. Humid. Maximum temperature 29 °C.

It's not very often you get to see severe storms in the forecast!

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Thursday:

Thunderstorms will become more widespread, and probably locally severe with hail and large amounts of rainfall. Later thunderstorms drift away northwards, drier conditions follow. Generally very warm. Humid. Maximum temperature 29 °C.

It's not very often you get to see severe storms in the forecast!

And even less often in the UK, severe storms followed by continued hot weather, even it's only for a day or so on this occasion. Usually the Atlantic air coming in is the trigger.

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Well that's it then. Average temperatures at best for the north and changeable up to Aug 2nd! So no summer up here basically! A cracking warm dry and sunny Spring though!

Didn't realise that summer ends at the end of July!

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 10 Jul 2017 to Wednesday 19 Jul 2017:

Next week we will start to see more unsettled and cooler weather affecting the UK. A mixture of showers and periods of rain, these more common in the northwest, and also some drier spells at times. The brightest weather is more likely in the south and east, though even here will see rain at times. A generally more mobile, unsettled and at times windy theme looks set to last into mid July, feeling cooler by day with some chilly nights possible. The coolest weather most likely in the west; sheltered eastern areas probably closer to average temperatures. Thereafter, more dry, settled and warm conditions are likely to become more prevalent as we look towards the second half of July.

UK Outlook for Thursday 20 Jul 2017 to Thursday 3 Aug 2017:

A changeable start to the period is likely, however longer dry and warm spells may become more prevalent across much of the UK through the second half of July, and perhaps continuing into August, although north-western areas are still likely to remain more unsettled. Temperatures may be around average in the northwest, in contrast to some warmer spells particularly in the southeast.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Whilst the word "may" is still in the forecasts then I won't write the first half of summer off just yet. 🙂

The BBC forecast just 24 hours ago was for significant and potentially severe thunderstorms tomorrow. Just watched the 5.57pm forecast and it's a massive backtrack with just isolated risk of a shower. The forecasts were better and more accurate in the 1980s.

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Whilst the word "may" is still in the forecasts then I won't write the first half of summer off just yet. 🙂

 

If the second half of summer is like the first half I've had I'll be more than happy.....

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If the second half of summer is like the first half I've had I'll be more than happy.....

Its been a good summer for those south of the midlands not so good further north, still we've still over half the summer left so times still on our side for something better nationwide.

 

 

If the second half of summer is like the first half I've had I'll be more than happy.....

Absolutely! Another baking hot sunny day here again today. The first month or so of summer has been amazing for the south generally. 

 

Edit: and it's gets better. The storms we looked like getting here tomorrow now projected to miss well to the east. Staying dry here. Fantastic!!!

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Just to echo what others have said. Been a great summer in the South East so far as well. Plenty of outdoor activities planned, so long may it continue to be better than "usable" weather.

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Jul 2017 to Thursday 20 Jul 2017:

Next week we will start to see more unsettled and cooler weather affecting the UK. There will be a mixture of showers and periods of rain, these more common in the northwest, and also some drier spells at times. The brightest weather is more likely in the south and east, though even here will see rain at times. A generally more mobile, unsettled and at times windy theme looks set to last into mid July, feeling cooler by day with some chilly nights possible. The coolest weather most likely in the northwest with sheltered south-eastern areas probably closer to average temperatures. Thereafter, more dry, settled and warm conditions are likely to become more prevalent as we look towards the second half of July.

UK Outlook for Friday 21 Jul 2017 to Friday 4 Aug 2017:

A changeable start to the period is likely, however longer dry and warm spells may become more prevalent across much of the UK through the second half of July, and perhaps continuing through until the end of the period, although north-western areas are still likely to remain more unsettled. Temperatures may be around average in the northwest, in contrast to some warmer spells particularly in the southeast.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Its been a good summer for those south of the midlands not so good further north, still we've still over half the summer left so times still on our side for something better nationwide.

I'm north of the midlands and I'm certainly not complaining - think it's also a west/east difference aswell as a north/south

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 12 Jul 2017 to Friday 21 Jul 2017:

From the middle of next week we will see more unsettled and cooler weather affecting the UK. There will be a mixture of showers and periods of rain, these more common in the northwest, and also some drier spells at times. The brightest weather is more likely in the south and east, though even here will see rain at times. A generally more mobile, unsettled and at times windy theme looks set to last into mid July, feeling cooler by day with some chilly nights possible. The coolest weather most likely in the northwest with sheltered south-eastern areas probably closer to average temperatures, possibly even warm at times. Thereafter, more dry, settled and warm conditions are likely to become more prevalent as we look towards the second half of July.

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Jul 2017 to Saturday 5 Aug 2017:

Longer dry and warm spells may become more prevalent across much of the UK through the second half of July, and perhaps continuing through until the end of the period, although north-western areas are still particularly likely to remain more changeable. Temperatures may be around average in the northwest, in contrast to some warmer spells particularly in the south and east.

Updated: 15:00 on Fri 7 Jul 2017 BST

MetO still going for a more general improvement in the second half of July. They have been consistent with this view for the last three weeks or so, therefore one can only assume that the signal for this must be a fairly strong one.

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 13 Jul 2017 to Saturday 22 Jul 2017:

During the middle of next week we will see more unsettled and cooler weather affecting the UK. There will be a mixture of showers and periods of rain, more often in the northwest, and also some drier spells at times too. The brightest weather is more likely in the south and east, though even here there may be some spells of rain. A generally more mobile, unsettled and at times windy theme looks set to last into mid July, feeling cooler by day with some chilly nights possible. The coolest weather is most likely in the northwest with sheltered south-eastern areas probably closer to average temperatures, possibly even warm at times. Drier, more settled and warm conditions are likely to become more prevalent towards the end of the period.

UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Jul 2017 to Sunday 6 Aug 2017:

Prolonged dry and warm spells may become more prevalent across much of the UK, perhaps continuing through early August, although north-western areas are still particularly likely to remain more changeable. Temperatures may be around average in the northwest, in contrast to some warmer spells elsewhere, particularly in the south and east.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

What a fantastic update!

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What a fantastic update!

All the models seem to be picking something up in late July. The 4 weeks after schools break up are the most important summer weeks - let's hope they're right.

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