Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 7 Sep 2017 to Saturday 16 Sep 2017:

Thursday should be largely dry with sunny spells across the south. In the north it will be more unsettled with rain and strong winds which should spread southwards for Friday. The unsettled weather is then expected to last through next weekend. There will be some cloudy and wet weather, with spells of brighter but more showery conditions. It will often become windy with gales in places, with severe gales possible in exposure. The following week should start off rather unsettled but there are signs it may begin to turn drier as we head through the week. Temperatures will generally become cooler into next weekend, before recovering closer to normal later, perhaps even becoming warm at times.

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Sep 2017 to Sunday 1 Oct 2017:

Through this period, we are most likely to see changeable weather conditions across the UK with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with drier and brighter interludes. On balance the spells of rain and strong winds are most likely in the north and west, with drier, brighter weather more common in the south and east. Temperatures will probably remain close to normal for the time of year, though we may see short-lived warmer spells at times, especially in the southeast. There is a chance of a period of more settled conditions developing towards the end of the period.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 8 Sep 2017 to Sunday 17 Sep 2017:

A very unsettled spell of weather is looking increasingly likely for Friday, the weekend and the early part of next week. A band of heavy rain will sweep southeastwards on Friday, with brighter, showery conditions following on. Windy, especially in the north on Friday, but the threat of gales, perhaps even severe gales, will become more widespread into the weekend and early next week, with western and southwestern areas currently deemed most at risk. Accompanying the strong winds will be spells of heavy rain, and with all this factored in, temperatures will struggle. Towards the latter half of next week, a broad northwest-southeast split should develop, with the wettest and windiest weather in the northwest, and drier, brighter conditions more prevalent further southeast, though with temperatures still a little suppressed.

UK Outlook for Monday 18 Sep 2017 to Monday 2 Oct 2017:

This period will probably start on a rather unsettled note, with northwestern areas continuing to see the bulk of the rain and stronger winds. Eastern and southern areas will see longer drier, brighter interludes, but even here, some rain is likely at times. As we progress through the second half of September, whilst an overall changeable theme seems likely, there is a higher chance of more prolonged periods of settled weather developing more widely, which would lead to an upturn in temperatures, especially in the south and southeast.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 4 September—Sunday 10 September
Fairly quiet to start, but a more active finish.

The first full week of September looks like kicking off on warm and humid note. Sunshine may be at a bit of premium, but if it does come out, then you'll be reminded that we are only in the early days of Autumn. But by midweek, a passage of a cold front will lead to our weather will be streaming in from the North Atlantic, meaning a cooler and fresher feel for all of us, with a mixture of sunshine and showers.

We ramp it up a gear in time for the weekend, as a rather more disturbed weather pattern may develop with deep areas of low pressure rattling in from the Atlantic. This could potentially bringing the first widespread gales of the Autumn season. Mists and mellow fruitfulness on hold for now...

Monday 11 September—Sunday 17 September
Like the first week, but in reverse order.

The wet and windy weather of the previous weekend is likely to spill into the start of this week. However, as the week progresses, most of the computer models suggest a settling down of the weather, with high pressure taking charge. With this will come some pleasantly warm days, but with the likelihood of chilly nights and perhaps some early morning fog - at last mists and mellow fruitfulness!

At this time of year, Atlantic hurricanes can have an influence on our weather, and all eyes at the moment are on Hurricane Irma. As this storm potentially threatens the eastern USA, the warm air it drags north across the Atlantic can help build pressure towards our shores. It is this process which may see our weather calm down towards the end of this period.

Monday 18 September—Sunday 1 October
Towards climatology is our best guess

Confidence in the forecast is low looking this far ahead, primarily because of the potential for on-going Atlantic tropical storm activity. There is also a lack of any strong global drivers (e.g. an El Niño) in the weather at the moment. Therefore, we are uncertain what these weeks will bring.

Thus our best estimate for the second half of September and start of October is for our weather to revert to something close to what we'd expect at this time of year. This means that northern and western parts of the UK stand the greatest chance of seeing periods of wind and rain, and the further south and east you are the drier and brighter it should be, though even here some rain is likely at times.

Next week

We'll find out if Hurricane Irma can, admittedly indirectly, bring us a period of fine and settled weather.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 10 Sep 2017 to Tuesday 19 Sep 2017:

Through Sunday and into the beginning of next week it is going to remain very unsettled and often windy. There will be frequent showers across all areas with some longer spells of rain and only brief sunny intervals. Some of the showers could be heavy and blustery, with thunder and hail. Some of the heavy rain may be accompanied by gales, perhaps severe in exposed parts. Conditions should begin to improve later next week, particularly in the south and west, with some longer drier and brighter spells developing and lighter winds. Thereafter it will remain changeable through to the end of the period. Whilst it will be rather cool at first, temperatures should rise to near normal, but with an increasing chance of chilly nights.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Sep 2017 to Wednesday 4 Oct 2017:

This period will likely be changeable, although northwestern areas are set to continue to see the bulk of the rain and stronger winds. Eastern and southern areas will see longer drier, brighter interludes, but even here, some rain is likely at times. As we progress towards the end of September, whilst an overall changeable theme seems likely, there is a higher chance of more prolonged periods of settled weather developing more widely, which would lead to an upturn in temperatures, especially in the south and southeast. However, the more settled weather will also bring an increased risk of morning fog.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Sep 2017 to Wednesday 20 Sep 2017:

Into the beginning of next week it is going to remain very unsettled and often windy. There will be frequent showers all areas with some longer spells of rain and only brief sunny intervals. Some of the showers could be heavy and blustery, with thunder and hail. Some of the heavy rain may be accompanied by gales, perhaps severe in exposed parts. By mid-week, conditions should begin to improve, particularly in the south and west, with some longer drier and brighter spells developing and lighter winds. Thereafter it will remain changeable through to the end of the period, with the driest and brightest conditions towards the southeast. Whilst it will be rather cool at first, temperatures should rise to nearer normal, but with an increasing chance of chilly nights.

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Sep 2017 to Thursday 5 Oct 2017:

This period will likely be changeable, although northwestern areas are set to continue to see the bulk of the rain and stronger winds. Eastern and southern areas will see longer drier, brighter interludes, but even here, some rain is likely at times. As we progress towards the end of September, whilst an overall changeable theme seems likely, there is a higher chance of more prolonged periods of settled weather developing more widely, which would lead to an upturn in temperatures, especially in the south and southeast. However, the more settled weather will also bring an increased risk of morning fog and frost.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Sep 2017 to Thursday 21 Sep 2017:

This period will remain unsettled at first with sunny spells and showers for many and perhaps some longer spells of rain. Some of this is likely to be heavy and accompanied by strong winds, with the risk of gales in exposed parts of the north and west. By mid month the weather may begin to improve from the south and west with some longer spells of drier and brighter weather, with lighter winds. This may lead to some rather chilly nights, with the risk of mist and fog forming where skies are clear overnight. Thereafter, it will remain changeable through the rest of this period, with the wettest and windiest weather in the northwest. On the whole it will be generally cool throughout.

UK Outlook for Friday 22 Sep 2017 to Friday 6 Oct 2017:

This period will likely be changeable, although north-western areas are set to continue to see the bulk of the rain and stronger winds. Eastern and southern areas will see longer spells of drier and brighter weather, although even here, some rain is likely at times. As we progress towards the end of September, whilst an overall changeable theme seems likely, there is a higher chance of more prolonged periods of settled weather developing more widely, which would lead to an upturn in temperatures, especially in the south and southeast. However, the more settled weather will mean that it may become chilly overnight with an increased risk of seeing fog and frost during the mornings.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41198388 
I do hope this doesn't bring with it a decline in the well-informed and grounded standard of coverage of weather-related stories in the Express.

---

BBC news: Will Grant reporting from Cuba: mentioned the heavy rain causing concern and then said that it could cause a storm surge. (About 5.20pm ish) I thought storm surges were more to do with low pressure. Educate me (or Will Grant).

---

Amber warnings out for the winds after midnight tonight:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2017-09-13

 

---

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

September to calm down after boisterous start

September has had an unsettled start, and further rain and strong winds are expected until around the 14th. After that, things should turn more settled, especially over England and Wales, with drier spells prevailing. Over Scotland and Northern Ireland these settled periods are expected to be more short-lived.

Monday 11 September—Sunday 17 September
Cool, showery and often windy. Drier later.

The week begins with a yellow warning in place for southwest England and South Wales for strong westerly winds. But all parts will be cool and breezy with heavy and locally thundery showers, with sunny intervals in between.

Tuesday daytime will see sunshine and fewer showers, before wet and very windy weather sweeps eastwards overnight, followed by westerly gales in some areas - these winds may be disruptive.

Wednesday and Thursday will be blustery, cool days with heavy showers in most areas, but by next weekend the weather will be turning calmer with more dry weather around, although there could still be a few showers - in southeast England on Saturday, and in the northwest on Sunday.

Monday 18 September—Sunday 24 September
More settled - and a little warmer

By the 18th high pressure will be bringing mostly dry weather to much of the country. Temperatures will be back up to normal by day but with some chilly nights leading to early fog in places. North and west Scotland and Northern Ireland will keep more cloud and patchy rain at times. This pattern is expected to last through much of the week, with a lot of dry weather with some sunshine. Many places should become rather warm but still with some overnight fog taking a while to shift in the mornings. By the weekend there's the likelihood that unsettled weather over N and W Scotland will spread across all parts, with the breeze increasing and temperatures dropping back to normal.

Monday 25 September—Sunday 8 October
Maintaining the trend for plenty of dry weather

In contrast to August and early September, for the end of the month and the start of October there's a signal that high pressure will dominate the UK's weather patterns. This would bring predominantly dry weather with variable amounts of cloud and some sunshine. Along with this pattern come chilly nights with some early ground frosts and the continuing prospect of foggy starts in places. Overall, temperatures won't be far from normal and rainfall totals will be below average. The one caveat to this optimistic story is that we are having an active Atlantic hurricane season. Occasionally, the remnants of these tropical systems can have significant downstream impacts on the weather patterns over northwest Europe, even if they don't cross the Atlantic, so confidence in the longer range forecasts can never be high at this time of year.

Next week

We'll focus on whether the transition to drier weather is looking more likely, despite the Autumn equinox's reputation of being a period when strong winds are common.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 18 Sep 2017 to Wednesday 27 Sep 2017:

Next week will be off to a mostly settled start, with showers largely confined to the southeast. There should be some sunshine too, but then outbreaks of rain may push in from the west. Winds will be light, making it warm in sunshine but cold at night. From around the middle of next week it may turn more unsettled, with cloud and outbreaks of rain, but southeast England will hold onto the driest weather for longest, with slightly higher temperatures. Into the following week the weather looks to be rather changeable, with the northwest of the UK seeing more wet and windy weather, and southeastern parts drier and brighter on the whole. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year, with an increasing risk of frost and fog.

UK Outlook for Thursday 28 Sep 2017 to Thursday 12 Oct 2017:

For the rest of September and into the start of October, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in the forecast. Changeable weather seems the most likely, with a northwest - southeast split across the UK; the northwest most likely to see spells of wet and windy weather. There are signs of lengthier settled spells in between though, with the south and east likely to see the driest weather. Temperatures look as though they will be close to normal, with southeast England perhaps warm too. Some cold nights are likely though, with frost and fog possible.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK weather: Long range forecast reveals if it is going to be a white Christmas

It’s 100 days to Christmas, but it’s highly unlikely the UK will be covered in snow on the Big Day. Long-range forecasting is always a hazard for British weather, but early models point to a continuation of the wet and windy conditions which have dominated for the past few weeks.
 
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-long-range-forecast-11177317 

UK weather: Long range forecast reveals if it is going to be a white Christmas

It’s 100 days to Christmas, but it’s highly unlikely the UK will be covered in snow on the Big Day. Long-range forecasting is always a hazard for British weather, but early models point to a continuation of the wet and windy conditions which have dominated for the past few weeks.
 
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-long-range-forecast-11177317 

Thats that then.😁

Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Sep 2017 to Saturday 30 Sep 2017:

Cloud and outbreaks of rain are likely to spread eastwards during Thursday including some heavy bursts. Brighter, showery weather may follow into the northwest by Friday. It will probably be breezier for many with strong winds across some northern areas. Next weekend is likely to stay generally rather unsettled in the north and west with rain and stronger winds at times. In the south and east there will be more sunshine and lighter winds. There are signs that the weather will turn more settled generally during the following week, but with more chance of early mist and fog following chilly nights. The northwest may continue to see some rain and strong winds but less so than on previous days. Days will become warmer generally, especially in the south and east.

UK Outlook for Sunday 1 Oct 2017 to Sunday 15 Oct 2017:

As we head into October there remains considerable uncertainty in the forecast, although it will perhaps be mainly settled at first, with the best of the dry and sunny weather in the south or southeast. Through the first week of October a northwest-southeast split may develop across the UK bringing rain and strong winds across the northwest, and drier and brighter weather across the southeast. Temperatures will be close to or slightly above normal at first, with the south and southeast perhaps warm. However, in more settled spells we will continue to see some chilly nights with mist and fog and an increased chance of some frost, especially in the north.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

FLOOD ALERT

UK weather braced for floods as thundery showers batter UK – with record ‘SEVEN storms with 90mph winds’ set to hit UK before Christmas

https://t.co/0KW82vvubR 

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 18 September—Sunday 24 September

Weather starting to settle down

We will see the first signs of something more settled during the first half of this week. A ridge of high pressure will continue to edge in from the west during Monday and Tuesday and bringing a lot of dry and bright weather with sunny spells. There will still be some showers running down the east coast of Scotland and England with scattered showers developing inland on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Still quite cold at nights too and daytime temperatures also a little below normal.

Towards the middle part of the week we lose the cold northerly winds and instead begin to pick up a milder southwesterly breeze. This will be one of the main changes during the week as night times become much milder and temperature during the days also a few degrees higher.

The drier, warmer weather will continue in the east on Wednesday and into Thursday but western areas will see some wet and windy weather. The rain edging eastwards to many places later on Thursday. Over next weekend, south and eastern areas will be mostly dry with sunny spells. Northwestern areas will be cloudier and breezy for time with a little rain.

Monday 25 September—Sunday 1 October

September to end on a high

The last week of September is looking more promising with the possibility of high pressure dominating our weather. There is still some uncertainty due to active storms in the tropical Atlantic and the remnants of some of them will move northwards into the mid latitudes. This can quite often have a beneficial effect on our weather by helping to reinforce high pressure close to the British Isles. So the weather looks set to be mostly dry with some sunshine but perhaps occasional rain and stronger winds at times towards the northwest. However high pressure at this time of year does bring its own set of problems. The combination of clear skies and light winds will lead to quite cold nights. Also there is likely to be some overnight mist and fog patches. As the strength of the sun becomes less, it will take longer after sunrise for the fog patches to disperse and some areas could well see some fog lingering till the middle part of the morning. However daytime temperatures will be on the warm side and with light winds, ingredients are there for some fine late September days.

Monday 2 October—Sunday 15 October

How long will the settled weather last?

As we move into October and the second month of the meteorological autumn, we look set to start off on a fairly settled note. At this stage, high pressure is still expected to be close to the British Isles maintaining a lot of dry and quite warm weather. There are indications that weather fronts bringing rain and strengthening winds will begin to edge into more north and western parts of the British Isles, with the driest, brightest and warmest weather becoming confined to more southern and eastern areas.

Next week

Will the second half of October turn cold and wintry or wet and windy?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Sep 2017 to Monday 2 Oct 2017:
Next weekend will probably stay rather unsettled in the north and west with rain and stronger winds at times, perhaps even gales for western Scotland and Northern Ireland. Further south and east there will be more sunshine and lighter winds. It is likely to become quite warm in the daytime, though there may well be early morning mist and fog patches in the southeast following chilly nights. A similar pattern to the weather is likely to carry on well into the following week, though there is a chance that the more settled weather will spread further northwest. However, the northwest may continue to see some rain and strong winds but less so than previously. Days will become warmer generally, especially in the south and east.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 3 Oct 2017 to Tuesday 17 Oct 2017:

As we head into October there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast, although it looks most likely to be mainly settled at first, with the best of the dry and sunny weather in the south and southeast. Through the first half of October a more marked northwest-southeast split could develop again across the UK, bringing rain and strong winds across the northwest, and drier and brighter weather across the southeast. Temperatures will be close to or slightly above normal in most of the UK, with the south and southeast perhaps rather warm by day. However, in more settled spells we will continue to see some chilly nights with early morning mist and fog as well as an increased chance of frost, most likely in the north.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

What is THAT heading for Britain? Terrifying map shows HUGE Atlantic storm hurtling to UK

A POTENTIALLY violent weather system about to form in the Atlantic could give rise to autumn’s second named storm – Brian. Government forecasters are “keeping an eye” on developments over ocean waters which could end in a full-blown assault this weekend. Worrying weather charts show a huge area of low pressure forming south of Greenland late on Thursday night. It deepens as it moves eastwards towards Britain on Friday evening and appears to clip the north overnight into Saturday. The Met Office said it is closely watching the charts but insisted it is still too early to make a call on whether this will cause problems.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/855681/Weather-forecast-2017-UK-Storm-Brian-path-Atlantic-storm-map-track 

The guy really is clueless (not you Gavin).

A brief glance at the model output would just show that Express story is, as per usual, sensationalist baseless rubbish.

At least the Express weather stories are consistently pathetic.

---

Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Sep 2017 to Tuesday 3 Oct 2017:

Through to the end of September it will probably stay rather unsettled in the north and western half of the UK, with rain and stronger winds at times, perhaps even gales for the far northwest next week. Further south and east there will be more in the way of sunshine and lighter winds. It is likely to become quite warm during the day at times, especially in the south and east, but with chilly nights in the forecast. There may be some mist and fog patches around first thing and these may last well into the morning on some days. Early in October the rather unsettled weather in the northwest will probably extend into the rest of the UK.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 3 Oct 2017 to Tuesday 17 Oct 2017:

As we head into October there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast, although it looks most likely to be mainly settled at first, with the best of the dry and sunny weather in the south and southeast. Through the first half of October a more marked northwest-southeast split could develop again across the UK, bringing rain and strong winds across the northwest, and drier and brighter weather across the southeast. Temperatures will be close to or slightly above normal in most of the UK, with the south and southeast perhaps rather warm by day. However, in more settled spells we will continue to see some chilly nights with early morning mist and fog as well as an increased chance of frost, most likely in the north.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast