A tear jerking post from somefarawaybitch... er, i mean beach.
Honestly though what a mixed bowl of memories you must have from that Christmas.

This start to this winter has been so awful it's making me see positives in December 2015. Yet another pile of stagnant cloud has arrived to ruin what was meant to be a sunny day. It's beyond  joke. Cloud cleared overnight only for the muck to return by dawn, just preventing a frost and extending this rank period of gloom.

Worst start to winter since 2002, I would say, with barely half an hour sun in five days and the odd bit of drizzle the only thing that could constitute weather. Yet another period of protracted gloom -a 2016 speciality - and two useless write-off weekends on the trot.

Can't wait to see the back of this garbage high. Would far rather have mild zonal south westerlies than this tiresome, depressing tripe but it really is hard to find anything to like about winter these days. It has become a write-off season and nothing I can see to look forward to at the moment. 

 

Hey Richard!

Have you ever considered moving? Here in south west France we have had cold nights with a morning frost and glorious blue skies for well over two weeks now. 

Last few days it has got a bit milder with 14-15 degrees sunshine filled days!! 

 

 

Hey Richard!

Have you ever considered moving? Here in south west France we have had cold nights with a morning frost and glorious blue skies for well over two weeks now. 

Last few days it has got a bit milder with 14-15 degrees sunshine filled days!! 

Good suggestion!

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Good suggestion!

 

Completely defeats the object. I love cold, snowy winters and warm, dry, sunny summers. I could move to certain places in New England and get those sorts of seasons most years.

But, apart from New England being full of Americans, which is always a negative, I wouldn't get the same level of satisfaction. There's a sense that it's all a bit artificial. A bit like a footballer being the star man for their boyhood team but the team can't quite win the league, so the player signs for a 'plastic' moneybags team who has bought success - the player wouldn't get anything like the sense of euphoria if they won the title with their new club.

Then there's the chaos issue. In places where snow is a regular feature, they cope well, even with deep snow that is unheard of in most of the UK. Here in Blightly, we go to pieces - and I love that. I grin like a village idiot as I watch people slither round like Chicken-Licken on roller skates, chuckle to hear the usual corporatist twits whinge about how much it's costing the British economy the reality is a net nothing, as output is always caught up afterwards), smile at people's ineptitude when trying to drive in snow.

 

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Think it is time that I firmed up on my winter temperature prediction. I'm going for overall winter being milder than normal.

Meto are going for a below average Winter based on  20%-25%  chance of being in the coldest of five categories and 15% being in the warmest category of winters.This average hides a view  that the first half of winter will be colder than average but second half  milder

Now it looks increasingly as though the mild spell being  forecast for the early middle of December will push the mean towards average unless some real cold appears for the last part of the month.This leaves the first half of January to be cold enough to offset six weeks of above average temperatures likely in  the second half of Jan and the whole of  Feb.

Looking at   December NAO's if it turns out NAO + there is  an 80% chance that the overall winter will be NAO +, therefore likely warmer than normal.

In terms of indicators weak  La Nina  continues to be the METO forecast.The QBO continues to strengthen moving from 12.83 to 14.16,whilst solar activity in November fell from 33.6 to 21.4.

Anyhow as total snow freak I continue  to hope that the METO forecast of a colder than average first half of winter comes to pass.

Think it is time that I firmed up on my winter temperature prediction. I'm going for overall winter being milder than normal.

Meto are going for a below average Winter based on  20%-25%  chance of being in the coldest of five categories and 15% being in the warmest category of winters.This average hides a view  that the first half of winter will be colder than average but second half  milder

Now it looks increasingly as though the mild spell being  forecast for the early middle of December will push the mean towards average unless some real cold appears for the last part of the month.This leaves the first half of January to be cold enough to offset six weeks of above average temperatures likely in  the second half of Jan and the whole of  Feb.

Looking at   December NAO's if it turns out NAO + there is  an 80% chance that the overall winter will be NAO +, therefore likely warmer than normal.

In terms of indicators weak  La Nina  continues to be the METO forecast.The QBO continues to strengthen moving from 12.83 to 14.16,whilst solar activity in November fell from 33.6 to 21.4.

Anyhow as total snow freak I continue  to hope that the METO forecast of a colder than average first half of winter comes to pass.

 

I think the last paragraph is now under threat, zonality arrives on Wednesday and only 2 weeks of it would be enough to secure an above average December, and as we know we rarely get away with just 2 weeks of it in the modern era.

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Trying to put a positive spin on things if you are looking for cold. The AO index has been negative or neutral consistently since 1 Oct apart from a brief bump in mid November. We are about to experience another bump over the next week or so. Beyond that there is huge uncertainty. I still think 15 Dec or thereabouts is a crucial point. The latest output shows two main options. Either the AO stays positive or it plunges way down into very negative territory. It is the latter we want to see for the best chance of a decent cold spell developing in the runup to Christmas. Looks about 50/50 on the latest output. But of course this changes with every run.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

On the flip side the November QBO data is in and the westerly QBO continues to strengthen. So that is most unhelpful.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/singapore2016.dat

The latest ENSO data shows a reading of -0.8 for the three months to November so we could be in the middle of a weak La Niña event which is helpful for potential cold. We need two more months with a reading of -0.5 or less for an official event to be designated.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

The only positive I can take from the mild outlook for a while is that it creates great entertainment watching the bitchyness on here 

We get more Snowy Easters than Christmas for goodness sake 

 

 

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My heart hopes for at least some snow this winter... BUT... It seems that my head is saying probably not. Things are starting to wake up in the Atlantic and the high pressure is once again settling down over most of Europe. This usually leads to a dull,mild,damp and generally forgettable winter... I really hope this is not the case...

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I'll ask this here rather than clogging up the MO thread with an off topic type post...

I like the fact we get snippets of information from the likes of IF, keeping us updated with stuff we can't see yet.

My question is did IF or any other known Pro give information/updates in the lead up to some good cold snowy weather? Did prospects always chop & change like they've seemed to the last couple of dull winters?

 

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I'll ask this here rather than clogging up the MO thread with an off topic type post...

I like the fact we get snippets of information from the likes of IF, keeping us updated with stuff we can't see yet.

My question is did IF or any other known Pro give information/updates in the lead up to some good cold snowy weather? Did prospects always chop & change like they've seemed to the last couple of dull winters?

 

 

I believe that the information that the METO is privy too was very clear in pinpointing December 2010 and it pretty much went like clockwork from the updates that we could see on the METO website from around November 10 onwards.

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I believe that the information that the METO is privy too was very clear in pinpointing December 2010 and it pretty much went like clockwork from the updates that we could see on the METO website from around November 10 onwards.

Yeah I remember the written updates from them & obviously from the form horses in the MO thread called it from quite a way out.

I can't remember the previous years though.

Sometimes I wonder if we have a little too much information nowdays and it sends most people crazy 

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Sometimes I wonder if we have a little too much information nowdays and it sends most people crazy 

 

It certainly causes some hysteria and over-reaction in the ranks!

 

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It certainly causes some hysteria and over-reaction in the ranks!

 

 

Could you imagine if snow was showing in the outputs at Day 10, 7, 5, 3 then inside 12hrs it disappeared from the charts altogether 

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Could you imagine if snow was showing in the outputs at Day 10, 7, 5, 3 then inside 12hrs it disappeared from the charts altogether 

 

We've been in similar situations before, and it's not pleasant on here when it happens.

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Could you imagine if snow was showing in the outputs at Day 10, 7, 5, 3 then inside 12hrs it disappeared from the charts altogether 

There have been so monumental letdowns, Dec 2012 being the most recent shortrange flop. Easterlies really need to come within T72 to be nailed, which seems ridiculous with the powerful NWP available but such is our location and such is the propensity for minor developments to scupper things.

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Well, I feel able to make a winter prediction. We are in for the usual dross, so get used to it and have fun doing something other than hoping for winter to ever put in an appearance in these poor, soggy, slug infested, stupidly mild, wet and windy islands!

Another winter write-off is clearly in prospect!

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P.S. Can someone correct the date on the forum as it is still showing the 8th of December on my devices and it should seemingly be showing the 8th of February.

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P.S. Can someone correct the date on the forum as it is still showing the 8th of December on my devices and it should seemingly be showing the 8th of February.

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P.S. Can someone correct the date on the forum as it is still showing the 8th of December on my devices and it should seemingly be showing the 8th of February.

I have just looked through the ECM output and it is dire.

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