Met Office Hadley     13.2c.     Anomaly   -0.9c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                 12.70c.   Anomaly    -1.02c.

Netweather              13.29c.   Anomaly    -0.41c.

Clevedon Weather     14.3c.    Anomaly    -2.3c.

Mount Sorrel             12.8c.    Anomaly    -1.0c.

My Mean                   13.6c.    Anomaly    -1.7c.   

I am still 0.6C too high.

I hope it rises a bit.

Here is the latest update from my CET calculations. It looks like the CET will finish below 13C on current output despite the possibility of a slightly less cold end to the month. Current estimate is 12.76C. This would make it the coldest September since 1994 and we could get the coldest September since 1993 if the less cold conditions don't materialise at the end of the month. The running CET mean has been below 13C every day since the 2nd.

We have now had 5 months in a row with below average temperatures (using 1971-2000 as the reference period). Last time that happened was July to November 1993. All five of those months were more than 1C below average. That was an especially cold period.

June 2008 to January 2009 nearly saw 8 months in a row below average but August was average and November 0.1C above average. However, all 8 months were below the 1981-2010 mean.

Thanks GW!

I'm very, very pleased how my September guess has gone. Was very worried about it at one point, LOL!

Met Office Hadley    13.2c.    Anomaly    -0.8c.  Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                12.75c.  Anomaly    -0.97c.   To Date

Netweather             13.29c.  Anomaly    -0.41c.   To Date

Clevedon Weather   14.3c.    Anomaly    -2.3c.    Provisional

Mount  Sorrel          12.8c.    Anomaly   -0.9c.      To Date

 My Mean                13.6c.    Anomaly   -1.7c.     Provisional

My Annual     11.2c.  Difference  5.5c.  Provisional.

looks like I'll lose more points. :-(

looks like I'll lose more points. :-(

Me too!  This could be the end of my reign on the top table. 

Just need HP to align nicely for a warm final few days and perhaps I could have two months in a row with very low errors.

I'm glad I ditched the models after July's poor result. Gut instinct is doing remarkably well by comparison 

Just need HP to align nicely for a warm final few days and perhaps I could have two months in a row with very low errors.

I'm glad I ditched the models after July's poor result. Gut instinct is doing remarkably well by comparison 

:-) In many respects this is turning out to be quite an amazing year in a lot ways. For those who like cold and snow - I think their luck might be in this winter.

And that is a gut instinct.

Just need HP to align nicely for a warm final few days and perhaps I could have two months in a row with very low errors.

I'm glad I ditched the models after July's poor result. Gut instinct is doing remarkably well by comparison 

My gut has served me well so far this year, but my memory let me down and my late entry in February scored me some unwanted penalties.  Now, I need warm days and cloudy nights for the CET to rise a bit over the coming week. 

It's been a cooler than normal September so far here, had a large number of nights into the low single figures which seems to be doing a good job in turning the leaves.

It's been a cooler than normal September so far here, had a large number of nights into the low single figures which seems to be doing a good job in turning the leaves.

My latest CET estimate for September is just 12.60C. I suspect it will probably drift lower still if we do get plenty of cold mornings between now and the end of the month.

So likely to be the coldest September since 1993

My latest CET estimate for September is just 12.60C. I suspect it will probably drift lower still if we do get plenty of cold mornings between now and the end of the month.

So likely to be the coldest September since 1993

Heaven forbid - I've bolloxed almost as badly as I did in July if it ends up at 12.6C

Met Office Hadley       13.2c.      Anomaly       -0.8c.   Provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                   12.64c.    Anomaly       -1.08c.

Netweather                13.22c.    Anomaly       -0.48c.

Clevedon Weather       14.2c.     Anomaly       -2.4c.

Mount  Sorrel              12.7c.     Anomaly       -1.0c.

My Mean                     13.5c.    Anomaly        -1.8c.       

I

 

We have now had 5 months in a row with below average temperatures (using 1971-2000 as the reference period). Last time that happened was July to November 1993.  

 

Weren't January to June 2013 all below average and all below 1961-90 averages at that? That's 6 month in a row and against 1971-2000 averages, September 2012 to June 2013 were all below 1971-2000 averages which makes that 10 in a row.

My latest CET estimate for September is just 12.60C. I suspect it will probably drift lower still if we do get plenty of cold mornings between now and the end of the month.

So likely to be the coldest September since 1993

Why are we still using outdated averages? Does it matter?

It's been a cool September but it's joint 156th in terms of the coldest Septembers going by Hadley's 13.2 figure. Coldest Septembers were way back in 1674, 1675, 1694 & 1807 all with a 10.5 figure for the CET.  Warmest September was 16.8 in 2006.

It's been a cool September but it's joint 156th in terms of the coldest Septembers going by Hadley's 13.2 figure. Coldest Septembers were way back in 1674, 1675, 1694 & 1807 all with a 10.5 figure for the CET.  Warmest September was 16.8 in 2006.

 

MVW..

But if it is 12.6C , it would 'rise' to 86/7 out of 356. Seems to be a lot cooler!

Caz..

Surely the global warming people climate scientists  have their own stats?

I think a comparison of the last 10 years is better for the competition.

However I do appreciate that the MO issue the data  comparitive to 1971 - 2000,

So its very easy to pick up when checking each day.