MVW..

But if it is 12.6C , it would 'rise' to 86/7 out of 356. Seems to be a lot cooler!

Caz..

Surely the global warming people climate scientists  have their own stats?

I think a comparison of the last 10 years is better for the competition.

However I do appreciate that the MO issue the data  comparitive to 1971 - 2000,

So its very easy to pick up when checking each day.

 

 

 

Indeed Grandad it would, but I'm just going off the Official figure at Hadley like I said in my post.

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My latest CET estimate for September is just 12.60C. I suspect it will probably drift lower still if we do get plenty of cold mornings between now and the end of the month.

So likely to be the coldest September since 1993

Thanks GW!

A proper cold September has been a VERY long time coming.

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Met Office Hadley    13.1c.    Anomaly   -0.8c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                12.68c.  Anomaly   -1.05c.

Netweather            13.21c.   Anomaly   -0.49c.

Clevedon Weather   14.2c.    Anomaly   -2.4c. 

Mount Sorrel           12.8c.    Anomaly   -1.0c.

My Mean                 13.5c.    Anomaly   -1.8c.

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Caz..

Surely the global warming people climate scientists  have their own stats?

I think a comparison of the last 10 years is better for the competition.

However I do appreciate that the MO issue the data  comparitive to 1971 - 2000,

So its very easy to pick up when checking each day. 

Yes, I'm sure you're right.  I was offering LeedsLad a possible explanation but I'd think CET figures would be taken seriously as they're official recordings, though climatologists do seem to have their own data.

I don't mind what averages we use but having something to compare with does help with my guesses - erm, not that you'd notice! 

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My latest estimate has the CET at just 12.52C by the end of the month which is 1.52C below the 1981-2010 mean.

26 of the 30 days this month are expected to return a below average CET (as against the 1981-2010 mean). The last time we had more below average days in a single month was the exceptional month of March 2013 (coldest March since 1892) when there were 29 of 31 days below the mean.

My latest estimate has the CET at just 12.52C by the end of the month which is 1.52C below the 1981-2010 mean.

26 of the 30 days this month are expected to return a below average CET (as against the 1981-2010 mean). The last time we had more below average days in a single month was the exceptional month of March 2013 (coldest March since 1892) when there were 29 of 31 days below the mean.

 

These numbers are getting quite low now in historical terms.  There are only 10 instances of lower CET in the last 100 years (and they are grouped mainly in the colder years of early 70' 's, 50's and particularly the 20's).  Over the whole record of CET it places us about 73 out of 358. This moderate position is  due to the huge number of low temps in the 18th century, pushing us down the list.

This has been achieved inspite of the lack of any major cold polar outbreak. It surely must show what the cold sst's in the north Atlantic are doing to our weather.

 

 

Met Office Hadley       13.1c.      Anomaly      -0.7c.

Metcheck                   12.65c.    Anomaly      -1.07c.

Netweather                13.23c.    Anomaly      -0.47c.

Clevedon Weather      14.2c.      Anomaly       -2.4c.

Mount Sorrel              12.7c.      Anomaly       -1.0c

My Mean                    13.5c.      Anomaly       -1.8c.

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The coolest May to September CET period since 1993 by the looks of it. However that period was bottom heavy, with July, August and September 1993 contributing virtually all of the -ve anomaly.

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Why are we still using outdated averages? Does it matter?

 

I believe the 'official' WMO base period is still 61-90, although most Met agencies - including our MetO - now tend to use 81-10 when reporting to the public.  

The problem arises when September 2014 was reported as being 0.5c above average (based on 61-90) but September 2015, with the same actual CET figure, is then reported as being 0.2c below average (based on 81-10) ......    [for example]  

But, so long as it is clear which base period is being used, it doesn't actually matter.

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I believe the 'official' WMO base period is still 61-90, although most Met agencies - including our MetO - now tend to use 81-10 when reporting to the public.  

The problem arises when September 2014 was reported as being 0.5c above average (based on 61-90) but September 2015, with the same actual CET figure, is then reported as being 0.2c below average (based on 81-10) ......    [for example]  

But, so long as it is clear which base period is being used, it doesn't actually matter.

Andy..

Not sure what you are saying here.

Sept 2014 was 15.09C which was  1.38 above the 71-00 CET. It was 1.02 above the  81-10 values.

This year it is 13.1C  currently and that is  0.61C below the 71-00 mean of 13.71, but 1.03C below the 81-10 figure of 14.07C.

I am not aware that this years CET was ever the same as last years. (Or is that just an example?), since it has been lower since day 1.

 

But anyway for my part, this is a competition forum, it is not a test of memory, and it is not involved in any climate change discussion  - infact a lot of the people taking part will not have been born in 1971. So it means nothing to them. I would ideally like to see the last 10 years on here used as a comparison, but I realise the information is not as readily available from the Met Office. 

     

 

 

Met Office Hadley      13.1c.    Anomaly     -0.7c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                  12.56c.  Anomaly     -1.16c.

Netweather               13.17c.  Anomaly     -0.54c.

Clevedon Weather      14.2c.   Anomaly     -2.4c.

Mount Sorrel              12.6c.   Anomaly     -1.1c.

My Mean                    13.5c.   Anomaly     -1.8c.  

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Andy..

Not sure what you are saying here.

Sept 2014 was 15.09C which was  1.38 above the 71-00 CET. It was 1.02 above the  81-10 values.

I assumed people knew what "for example" meant

 

But anyway for my part, this is a competition forum, it is not a test of memory, and it is not involved in any climate change discussion  - infact a lot of the people taking part will not have been born in 1971. So it means nothing to them. I would ideally like to see the last 10 years on here used as a comparison, but I realise the information is not as readily available from the Met Office.  

The competition is about predicting the CET, not the anomaly    So for that purpose the Met can compare the current CET with the temp in Delhi in 1881 for all the relevance it has

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UK Mean Temperatures 2010-2015 from Met Office.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasafe

Are available....

 

 

 

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Andy's right, this is a competition to predict the current month's CET, so past averages don't really matter and it's really for the fun of it, rather than the science.  Unless of course you're me and rely on some kind of inkling to prevent your guess going 5c (or more) too high!   

I'm happy to go with anything but it's easier for GW to go with what's available from the Met Office.  He puts a lot of time and effort into running this comp and I would hate him to give it up because we've put more pressure on his time.  So let's keep it light hearted, as it was meant to be from the start and leave it to GW to use whatever data suits him.   Amen!

It's been quite a warm day here but we started with a light frost, so that won't have done anything to increase the averages!  I need it to rise to prevent my slide down the table. 

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I'm happy to go with anything but it's easier for GW to go with what's available from the Met Office.  He puts a lot of time and effort into running this comp and I would hate him to give it up because we've put more pressure on his time.  So let's keep it light hearted, as it was meant to be from the start and leave it to GW to use whatever data suits him.  

 

Hear! Hear!

 

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Met Office Hadley.       13.0c.     Anomaly     -0.8c.  Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                    12.49c.   Anomaly     -1.23c.

Netweather                 13.09c.   Anomaly     -0.62c.

Clevedon Weather       15.09c.   Anomaly     -0.7c.

Mount Sorrel               12.5c.    Anomaly      -1.2c.

My  Mean                    13.4c.    Anomaly      -1.9c.

 

My Annual   11.2c.  Difference  5.5c.    

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Andy's right, this is a competition to predict the current month's CET, so past averages don't really matter and it's really for the fun of it, rather than the science.  Unless of course you're me and rely on some kind of inkling to prevent your guess going 5c (or more) too high!   

I'm happy to go with anything but it's easier for GW to go with what's available from the Met Office.  He puts a lot of time and effort into running this comp and I would hate him to give it up because we've put more pressure on his time.  So let's keep it light hearted, as it was meant to be from the start and leave it to GW to use whatever data suits him.   Amen!

It's been quite a warm day here but we started with a light frost, so that won't have done anything to increase the averages!  I need it to rise to prevent my slide down the table. 

Not unhappy also. As I suggested, it is easy to use the MO figures. So no change then.! My point was if we were going to change then we should use the latest figures.. Not 30,40 or 50 years ago. 

 

 

What is the reason for the CET being based on 30 years and not 40 or 25 ect?

And why don't they use a rolling CET Average.  

What is the reason for the CET being based on 30 years and not 40 or 25 ect?

And why don't they use a rolling CET Average.  

It's the standard WMO practice to use 30 years.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010BAMS2955.1

has more info.

Also, note this bit:

"Decadal updates. The WMO mandates member countries to compute 30-yr normals once every 30 years (1901–30, 1931–60, 1961–90, 1991–2020, etc.), but recommends that member countries create decadal updates as well"

This is why some reports still use 61-90, as it's one of the base mandated periods. 81-10 is of course fine to use as well, but we won't see a big shift until 6 years' time, when 91-20 will become the period quoted everywhere.

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Met Office Hadley         13.0c.     Anomaly      -0.8c.   Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                     12.46c.   Anomaly      -1.27c.

Netweather                  13.05c.   Anomaly     -0.65c.

Clevedon Weather        16.8c.     Anomaly       0.2c

Mount Sorrel                12.5c.    Anomaly       -1.3c.

My Mean                      13.4c.    Anomaly       -1.9c.                       

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