Richard K
04 November 2014 20:05:24
Just in case anyone else other than me hadn't noticed, the data we have been looking at through October is still there if you click on the the OPI final data. The last value shown is 2.12 based on the 12z from the 31st.
Saffron Walden, NW Essex, approx 70m above sea level (when the tide is out)
timstirling
05 November 2014 14:48:47

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 


Is a year necessarily a long time for peer review, especially on a subject which can only be tested every 12 months? If the authors wish to keep track of the daily GFS updates during October via the online equivalent of the back of a cigarette packet, well, that's up to them. If I were employed academically and were engaged in some slightly oddball research, I'd be inclined to keep it away from my employer's official media too. That way your employer will not get needlessly embarrassed if it all goes wrong.


 


Creating a paper can take a year even once you have a lot of the data and Peer review can take a couple of years on top of that. These are at the longer ends of the spectrum.


Once you have some data and a hypothesis you spend a few months writing a paper and proving results. You will then circulate the paper with peers and incorporate their feedback, this can take another 3-6 months. You then might need to collect more data, or re-write large sections.


You then submit to the journal- typically journals want to give you a review back in 90 days but often it can be more like 6-9 months! Your paper might be rejected then based on the reviews. If there is constructive feedback you will spend some months incorporating that and then sending the paper to a new journal where you will await the same 3-9 month period. These steps can be repeated many times until you ae lucky or give up.


 


Once you have a paper initially accepted with revision you then typically have 3 months to make the changes and improvements. You submit the payer and will wait up to another 3 months to hear back on whether the changes were acceptable. If they are then there is still some back and forth to sort out minor issues, this can take a month. If you are lucky they will publish the paper online at that point - but some journals will only put the paper online once it is in print, which might not be for a year or longer while the journal organizes its papers. However, even when hearing back from the revised paper there can be pitfalls: quite possibly they will have deemed that you have resolved the reviewer concerns so the paper is rejected - you then start back at square one and find a new journal. Rarer still but it some fields it is very common that you will have to make more significant changes and submit it back to the journal, each time inuring 3- 6 months delay. There can be 2-3 rounds of this. Even after all of that you might get the paper rejected at the 3rd round of reviewing a couple of years down the road. This is when you quit academia and get a real salary in industry.


 


 


Of course it is possible to go from an idea to a published paper under 12 months but there are many, may factors. 


Having a correlation of 0.9 might not be enough to get a publication, the reviewers may want a sound theory about why the correlation exists, the causation, and a detailed model. Developing the model can take months and months. Even if everything is scientifically sound there are many reasons for rejection.  I reject papers if there is a certain number of English mistake reached by the first page for example. A paper might also be rejected because the editor is not interested in that kind of work in their journal.  You might get reviewed by competitors who don't want you to get published before them. Many editors are just incompetent fools who dont read the paper or the reviewer comments and will just reject if one of the reviewers says reject.  And then their is the whole political side of it - there are academic niches based on culture/country where people only accept papers from their in-network colleagues.

Gooner
10 November 2014 08:09:02

As the OPI forecast comes out today thought I would bring this back up


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


nsrobins
10 November 2014 10:56:36

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


As the OPI forecast comes out today thought I would bring this back up



I'm ready - I've got the beers and popcorn in and Deal or No Deal is on record


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Frostbite80
10 November 2014 11:14:57
I have to say I can't wait to see the forecast because if you look at all the long range models and what the met are saying you would feel a little isolated if you were to make a forecast for below average temps for the UK when they are going for a wet and mild winter. I hope the team stay true to themselves and put it out there as they see it without any sitting on the fence like some do.

As I have said in the Model thread there is so much in favour of a colder than average winter but the computers say no 😕
White Meadows
10 November 2014 12:34:37
Who is releasing this OPI forecast?

Met office?
Russwirral
10 November 2014 12:51:35

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Who is releasing this OPI forecast?

Met office?


 


nooo....


 


it will be Riccardo on his car rental website


 


seriously


http://app.til.it/opi/


llamedos
10 November 2014 20:29:54

 


 


opi


 


Mañana, mañana ..................


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Matty H
10 November 2014 20:31:24

Brian Gaze, any thoughts on this? 


llamedos
10 November 2014 21:12:56

As the page doesn't display a posting date it's hard to tell I guess, hence my comment .............right now all I can think about is Neil's soggy popcorn


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
lanky
10 November 2014 21:30:10

It could be tomorrow as in..........




Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Solar Cycles
10 November 2014 22:15:31
It's out now actually.
Gavin P
10 November 2014 22:17:17

Here we go;


http://app.til.it/opi/


I'm going to have a good look over this work tomorrow and give my view on my Blog.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Russwirral
10 November 2014 22:26:34
This is very interesting,

So we have to see how this pans out. This combined with other Winter forecasts and the way the charts are looking at the moment (in terms of general placements and blocking of HP) is setting this winter up very nicely indeed.
SEMerc
10 November 2014 22:26:48

So, it's the MET vs. the OPI.

Russwirral
10 November 2014 22:29:22

Given how much wolf has been cried already of winter weather that hasnt happened... i wonder where the mail or the express could take this?


 


Theyve already used all the best superlatives going on weather that didnt happen.


 


"Super tornado hurricane vortex to hit the uk for the next 6 months"?


 


Solar Cycles
10 November 2014 22:31:47
It's the complete opposite of what most of the long range models are showing, no surprises there really given the final index figure. Well worth a read and the suggestions are for a active Atlantic on southerly tracking jet for much of the time this extending into mainland Europe. So reading between the lines the chances of cold and snow for the UK must be higher than average if this forecast is right of course.
Russwirral
10 November 2014 22:31:52

Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


So, it's the MET vs. the OPI.



 


There will be some eggs on faces if the OPI wins out. Think about it... millions of pounds, super computers, goverment & military contracts vs a small team hosting their data on a car rental website.


 


Very, very interesting.  Dont get me wrong - i have massive respect for Met.  But I always go for the underdog :)


Russwirral
10 November 2014 22:33:07

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

It's the complete opposite of what most of the long range models are showing, no surprises there really given the final index figure. Well worth a read and the suggestions are for a active Atlantic on southerly tracking jet for much of the time this extending into mainland Europe. So reading between the lines the chances of cold and snow for the UK must be higher than average if this forecast is right of course.


 


Accuweather and Weatherbell both going for exactly the same forecast too.  Theres some weight in this forecast idea...


Matty H
10 November 2014 22:47:33

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


 


There will be some eggs on faces if the OPI wins out. Think about it... millions of pounds, super computers, goverment & military contracts vs a small team hosting their data on a car rental website.


 


Very, very interesting.  Dont get me wrong - i have massive respect for Met.  But I always go for the underdog :)



What an odd rationale. 


Personally I'm absolutely certain this is just another LRF. No magic formula and no more likely to be accurate than any other, so with that in mind I guess your underdog backing isn't so odd after all. They're all underdogs in a field of forecasting that is light years from sustained, scientifically proven accuracy. 


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