Donate to browse the TWO website without adverts until 31st December 2024. You'll also get access to extra features and supporting our ongoing development.
For full details please see Advert free access on our website.
Remove ads from site
Met Office Hadley figure updated ... 15.0c. Anomaly 2.7c.
Metcheck 14.62c. Anomaly 4.11c.
N-W 16.15c. Anomaly 5.75c.
Mount Sorrel 15.21c. Anomaly 4.81c.
My Mean 15.8c. Anomaly 3.4c.
10.5C
Met Office Hadley 13.9c. Anomaly 1.7c. Provisional to 2nd.
Metcheck 14.40c. Anomaly 3.90c.
N-W 15.25c. Anomaly 4.86c.
Mount Sorrel 14.74c. Anomaly 4.34c.
Sorry, just back from holiday. Can I still have a go? If so, please put me down for 11.8c
Met Office Hadley 14.4c. Anomaly 2.2c. Provisional to 3rd.
Metcheck 14.70c. Anomaly 4.19c.
N-W 15.49c. Anomaly 5.1c.
Mount Sorrel 15.27c. Anomaly 4.87c.
My Mean 15.7c. Anomaly 3.3c.
Despite cooler conditions over the next few days we may see warmer conditions again by the middle of the month. Current output suggests the CET could be more than 1C above average by the 18th. So the generally warm trend of 2014 may be set to continue this month.
If we look at the 2014 CET we can see that it will track close to 1846 in the next few days and in fact is currently slightly above 1846 and in first place. By the middle of the month we will probably fall behind 1990 but could still just about be in second place.
Here are the predictions for October. Welcome to Gavin823 who is taking part for the first time.
Please note that for the November and December predictions these will be made via PM to me as in previous years and not posted directly in this thread in order to avoid tactical predictions.
Thank you for the chart.. Too near the top of it with my figure...
Originally Posted by: ARTzeman
Yes thanks as ever GW for your hard work, much appreciated.
I know what you mean ART, I'm already feeling I've gone too high, and you're higher than me!
Met Office Hadley 14.0c. Anomaly 1.8c. Provisional to 4th.
Metcheck 13.29c. Anomaly 2.78c.
N-W 14.76c. Anomaly 4.37c.
Mount Sorrel 13.66c. Anomaly 3.26c.
My Mean 14.8c. Anomaly 2.4c.
Met Office Hadley 13.2c. Anomaly 1.0c. Provisional to 5th.
Metcheck 12.80. Anomaly 2.29c.
N-W 13.85c. Anomaly 3.46c.
Mount Sorrel 13.09c. Anomaly 2.69c.
My Mean 14.1c. Anomaly 0.4c
Met Office Hadley 13.0c. Anomaly 0.7c. Provisional to 6th.
Metcheck 12.25c. Anomaly 1.74c.
N-W 13.36c. Anomaly 2.96c.
Mount Sorrel 12.71c. Anomaly 2.31c.
My Mean 13.7c. Anomaly 0.8c.
Originally Posted by: Global Warming
Interesting chart, that. It really shows how 2006 made a surge for the record in the last few weeks of the year, from being well below others at this stage. And 1846 really let itself down at the end of the year!
Met Office Hadley 12.5c. Anomaly 0.3c. provisional to 7th.
Metcheck 11.83c. Anomaly 1.32c.
N-W 12.78c. Anomaly 2.39c.
Mount Sorrel 12.52c. Anomaly 1.72c.
My Mean 13.1c. Anomaly 1.3c.
Keep falling, please
Met Office Hadley 12.3c. Anomaly 0.1c. Provisional to 8th.
Metcheck 11.82c. Anomaly 1.31c.
N--W 12.62c Anomaly 2.23c.
Mount Sorrel 12.05c. Anomaly 1.65c.
My Mean 12.9c. Anomaly 0.5c.
CET might get a bit of a boost next week? Then again starting to think a cold snap in final week or so can't be ruled out...
Originally Posted by: Gavin P
Using the GFS 00z op run data, the CET wobbles about until next weekend without much overall change, the minimum value being around 11.9*C and the maximum 12.1*C.
Then, that warm plume of air kicks in, with two very warm days followed by two very mild days, lifting the CET to around 12.7*C. It then wobbles about again for the final few days of the run, giving 12.7*C to the 26th.
It's just a rough estimate using raw GFS data, but it suggests the potential for October to be yet another month in 2014 with a CET at least 1*C above average.
I reckon ECM would produce a longer run of very warm (by which I mean CET returns of around 16-18*C) days than GFS does. Fair to say, I would enjoy that
Met Office Hadley 12.2c Anomaly 01.c. Provisional to 9th.
Metcheck 11.75c Anomaly 1.24c.
N- W 12.6c. Anomaly 2.21c.
Mount Sorrel 11.93c Anomaly 1.53c