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Saint Snow
10 October 2014 11:50:43



CET might get a bit of a boost next week? Then again starting to think a cold snap in final week or so can't be ruled out...


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Using the GFS 00z op run data, the CET wobbles about until next weekend without much overall change, the minimum value being around 11.9*C and the maximum 12.1*C.


Then, that warm plume of air kicks in, with two very warm days followed by two very mild days, lifting the CET to around 12.7*C. It then wobbles about again for the final few days of the run, giving 12.7*C to the 26th.


It's just a rough estimate using raw GFS data, but it suggests the potential for October to be yet another month in 2014 with a CET at least 1*C above average.


 


I reckon ECM would produce a longer run of very warm (by which I mean CET returns of around 16-18*C) days than GFS does. Fair to say, I would enjoy that cool


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


 


Bugger.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
10 October 2014 13:09:01

10.1C (+0.3) here at 10 days in.


Global Warming
10 October 2014 22:31:06

The CET should remain close to average over the next few days except on Sunday when it will be below average due to a cold night. The CET could fall to 11.63C by Wednesday which is only 0.26C above average for that point in October.


From next Thursday we could see a spell of much milder weather which would push the CET up significantly. As we move into the 4th week of October the CET may start to ease down again.


Current output suggests a CET of 12.1C by the 24th. So still on course for another month with a CET more than 1C above average. But plenty of uncertainty still given the mean CET for the month will actually only be slightly above average by the middle of next week. As ever at this time of the year the last week of the month will be critical for where we finally finish.



Saint Snow
10 October 2014 23:01:20

A lot depends on overnight cloud cover this month; clear nights dropping the temp to 5/6c makes a huge difference in the day's CET, when contrasted to more cloud cover that could keep the min at 10c or above.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
roger63
11 October 2014 07:25:18

Just looked at the Hadley 2014 CET update.


"The highest annual CET ever recorded was 10.82 which is 1.35 above normal.To date (09th Oct )annual CET is 1.40 above normal.To beat the record the anomaly for the remainder of the of the year must be 1.17C"


Is the record within our grasp?

Global Warming
11 October 2014 09:02:09


Just looked at the Hadley 2014 CET update.


"The highest annual CET ever recorded was 10.82 which is 1.35 above normal.To date (09th Oct )annual CET is 1.40 above normal.To beat the record the anomaly for the remainder of the of the year must be 1.17C"


Is the record within our grasp?


Originally Posted by: roger63 


Yes very much so. If we keep the mild weather for the rest of the year the record will easily be beaten. But if it turns much cooler at some point then we may fall quite a bit short.

Saint Snow
11 October 2014 09:41:29



Just looked at the Hadley 2014 CET update.


"The highest annual CET ever recorded was 10.82 which is 1.35 above normal.To date (09th Oct )annual CET is 1.40 above normal.To beat the record the anomaly for the remainder of the of the year must be 1.17C"


Is the record within our grasp?


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Yes very much so. If we keep the mild weather for the rest of the year the record will easily be beaten. But if it turns much cooler at some point then we may fall quite a bit short.


Originally Posted by: roger63 


 


Then hopefully we'll fall well short!


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ARTzeman
11 October 2014 11:14:30

Met Office Hadley  12.2c.     Anomaly    0.1c.  Provisional to 10th.


  1.15c


N-W                     12.58c.    Anomaly    2.19c. 


Mount   Sorrel       11.89c.    Anomaly    1.49c.


My    Mean            12.9c.     Anomaly     0.5c.


 


 


 


   






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
12 October 2014 10:40:16

Met Office Hadley        12.0c    Anomaly    0.0c.     Provisional to  11th.


Metcheck                   11.36c.  Anomaly    0.85c.


N-W                          12.44c.  Anomaly    2.04c.


Mount  Sorrel             11.59c.  Anomaly    1.19c.


My   Mean                  12.7c.   Anomaly     0.3c.


   






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Frost Hollow
13 October 2014 10:11:57

IMBY


6.82c


Mean min 2.1c


Mean max 11.5c


Lowest -0.1c, highest 15.4c


 

ARTzeman
13 October 2014 11:11:41

Met  Office  Hadley       11.8c.     Anomaly       -0.2c.   Provisional to 12th


Metcheck                     11.32c.   Anomaly        0.81c.


N - W                          12.19c.   Anomaly        1.79c.


Mount   Sorrel              11.47c.   Anomaly        1.07c.


My    Mean                   12.4c.    Anomaly         0.0c


 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
14 October 2014 11:13:10

Met Office Hadley       11.6c.     Anomaly      -0.2c.     Provisional to  13th.


Metcheck                   11.31c    Anomaly       0.80c.


 N-W                         12.16c.   Anomaly       1.77c.


Mount Sorrel              11.45c.   Anomaly       1.05c.


My  Mean                   12.2c.    Anomaly       -0.2c    






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
15 October 2014 07:33:06

9.7C (-0.1) at halfway point here.


ARTzeman
15 October 2014 07:39:14

In My Back yard.   12.1c  Anomaly  -0.3c. ...






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
15 October 2014 11:15:48

Met Office Hadley    11.05c.    Anomaly      -0.2c.  Provisional to 14th.


Metcheck                11.32c.    Anomaly       0.81c.


N-W                       12.14c.    Anomaly       1.75c.


Mount Sorrel           11.44c.    Anomaly       1.04c.


My  Mean                12.1c.     Anomaly      -0.3c.    


 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Saint Snow
15 October 2014 12:05:11

Think that's as low as it's going to go, unfortunately; back upwards from here 


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
16 October 2014 09:06:01

Shouldn't this thread be stickied?



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
wallaw
16 October 2014 10:39:50


Shouldn't this thread be stickied?


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I said that on the last page Saint, honestly the mods of these forums


Ian


Stockton-on-Tees

ARTzeman
16 October 2014 11:28:47

Met Office Hadley     11.6c.     Anomaly     -0.0c...    Provisional to 15th.


Metcheck                 11.38c.   Anomaly      0.87c.


N-W                        12.17c.   Anomaly      1.78c.


Mount Sorrel            11.53c.   Anomaly      1.13c.


My  Mean                 12.0c.    Anomaly      -0.4c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
17 October 2014 10:46:56

Met Office Hadley     11.7c.   Anomaly    0.2c. Provisional to 16th.


Metcheck                11.51c.  Anomaly    1.00c.


N-W                       12.27c.  Anomaly    1.87c.


Mount Sorrel           11.63c.  Anomaly    1.23c.


My Mean                 12.1c.   Anomaly    -0.3c.     






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Saint Snow
18 October 2014 08:20:20

Mods, this thread needs to be stickied


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
18 October 2014 08:40:10

Jumped to 10.1C here, the high minimums are the main reason.
Things go back more to average early next week though so I don't think there will be a huge impact by month end.


Gavin P
18 October 2014 10:46:11

Up to 11.9.


http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html


 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Saint Snow
18 October 2014 10:50:52


Up to 11.9.


http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html


 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


 




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ARTzeman
18 October 2014 11:16:01

AS Posted... Met Office Hadley 11.9c.  Anomaly     0.4c. Provisional to 17th


Metcheck        11.79c.   Anomaly     1.28c.


N-W               12.45c.   Anomaly     2.06c.


Mount Sorrel   11.90c.   Anomaly   1.50c.


My  Mean        12.2c.     Anomaly    0.2c.         






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

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