On a slightly lighter note for a sec, David Cameron has visited flood damaged Yalding in Kent. One Twitter poster said "As if they haven't enough bad things to deal with!" lol!

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On a slightly lighter note for a sec, David Cameron has visited flood damaged Yalding in Kent. One Twitter poster said "As if they haven't enough bad things to deal with!" lol!

 

And if he didn't show his face he's be blamed for not caring.

 

Who'd be a politician?

This thing is a proper lingerer.
I wouldn't put milk bottles out in the weather we are having in Dublin right now.
Quite a few trees down and damage reports from various parts of the country also.

Winds seem to have picked up here. Nothing overly damaging but a good blow. 

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Gales are back in earnest now, and the rain having taken a brief respite is quite heavy.

Now up to 10.6mm rain pressure is rising 955.1 up from 953.2 an hour ago lowest was 949.3 at noon.

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Flood map

http://www.shoothill.com/FloodMap/

the interesting bit IMBY being the swathe of groundwater flooding across the chalk of Dorset & Wilts; groundwater being slow to rise and slow to fall, this is likely to last for a long time. Sussex Downs not shown as being affected, but the Lavant stream through Chichester, fed by groundwater, has risen in under a week - it normally takes some three weeks for it to appear there after being first seen higher up in the Downs.

Flood plain near Tonbridge (AKA Barden Park) still under 2 or 3 feet of water yesterday, but well down on the day before when the EA had to open the flood defence sluices to prevent the barrier being overtopped, and so flooded several premises in the High St. (The flood defences are apparently is designed to store only 15% of a 100-year flood, which seems puny and is proving ineffective against even 10-year events). 

Finally, the Arun at Pulborough is out of its banks and a few inches deep across the main A29, and according to the flood map above may rise slightly on this as the peak moves down stream

 

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Updated warnings out from the Met Office for Monday. Heavy rain for SW England and S Wales with strong winds for a similar area but also extending along the south coast. Gusts up to 70mph again with a risk of 80mph on western facing coasts for a time. Also heavy rain in SW Scotland.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1388361600&regionName=sw

The NMM model shows significant rainfall across all of southern England on Monday morning with 20-30mm quite widely in the SE corner especially over higher ground (e.g. the South Downs). So we could see further flooding problems by Monday afternoon.

This is the accumulated raingall chart for 16z on Monday
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122806/nmm-25-58-1.png?28-12

Winds gusts from the GFS model
0z Monday http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122806/42-289UK.GIF?28-6
6z Monday http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122806/48-289UK.GIF?28-6
9z Monday http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122806/51-289UK.GIF?28-6

Up to 110kph for the west of Cornwall and Pembrokeshire (70 mph). Elsewhere inland generally up to 90kph (55 mph) with 100kph (62mph) along the coasts.

So just a typical winter storm really but coming on top of everything we have had recently it could lead to further disruption.

There is the potential for further windy weather as we move into the New Year although nothing too significant. At present midday on 1 Jan looks potentially bad for the south coast
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122806/102-515UK.GIF?28-6
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122806/102-289UK.GIF?28-6
Also futher significant rainfall for the south on New Year's Day
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122806/102-779UK.GIF?28-6
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122806/108-779UK.GIF?28-6

not nice weather due from DEC 31 -Jan 5 very heavy rain possible wind up 80 mph with flooding not what the south east needs at the moment

not nice weather due from DEC 31 -Jan 5 very heavy rain possible wind up 80 mph with flooding not what the south east needs at the moment

Suffice to say that I'm glad I don't have to face going back to that hill top-based tomato greenhouse at Farthing Common on that Monday now that I'm out of the horticulture game - assuming I could actually get there without getting blown off my motobike. Trying to carry on working under glass and hearing all the creaking and groaning sound while thinking about my poor home getting battered by that same southerly gale wasn't much fun. 
   I've always wondered why on Earth anyone thought it was it a good idea to build a large 4-arce greenhouse establishment on what is at a very exposed place at 400 feet above sea level and on the side of a south-west facing hill side. Even if it wasn't blowing a gale, it was often shrouded in low cloud thus was often foggy and damp . And of course, when it snowed . . . boy, we got to know about that - especially since the north-east flank faces miles and miles of rolling hills. 
  No wonder why the establishment had struggled for most of the time and then closed up towards the end.

In the meantime, indeed, a very unsettled week faces us, as if you're not aware of that.   But I do find it strange how we can still get gale force winds while the air pressure hovers around 1005 mb all day tomorrow - only in the UK can that happen.

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not nice weather due from DEC 31 -Jan 5 very heavy rain possible wind up 80 mph with flooding not what the south east needs at the moment

Suffice to say that I'm glad I don't have to face going back to that hill top-based tomato greenhouse at Farthing Common on that Monday now that I'm out of the horticulture game - assuming I could actually get there without getting blown off my motobike. Trying to carry on working under glass and hearing all the creaking and groaning sound while thinking about my poor home getting battered by that same southerly gale wasn't much fun. 
   I've always wondered why on Earth anyone thought it was it a good idea to build a large 4-arce greenhouse establishment on what is at a very exposed place at 400 feet above sea level and on the side of a south-west facing hill side. Even if it wasn't blowing a gale, it was often shrouded in low cloud thus was often foggy and damp . And of course, when it snowed . . . boy, we got to know about that - especially since the north-east flank faces miles and miles of rolling hills. 
  No wonder why the establishment had struggled for most of the time and then closed up towards the end.

In the meantime, indeed, a very unsettled week faces us, as if you're not aware of that.   But I do find it strange how we can still get gale force winds while the air pressure hovers around 1005 mb all day tomorrow - only in the UK can that happen.

Good post Ian - and excellent comments as well.

 

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