That I would have no idea on. One theory I would put forward is that the pattern over the NE Atlantic (mostly straight west to east) this year allowed a relatively good opportunity for cold to build up undisturbed in that region of the Arctic. Duration probably will only be short term I would say, but all eyes on as they say.
I agree and it's also interesting in that the low pressure systems in the NE Atlantic, have had the tendency for two or three years now, to head from west to east or NW to SE. Besides reducing the flow rate of the North Atlantic Drift, this would lead to lower water vapour content over the Arctic Basin especially along the Eurasian coastal areas, both inland and sea. This in turn, would lead to higher radiative heat losses. Eventually, after a transition period where recently high SST's would slowly reduce over a year or two, Ice area would both expand and its life be prolonged and become more than marginal.
Anyone have a clue as to the recent history of water vapour values in the Arctic?
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