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KevBrads1
06 September 2020 09:05:01


 


What precise area does the South East England regional total cover? It does look as though there have been some considerable variations in rainfall across it, as we only had 59% of the local LTA in August, and I think that 'fairweather' posting from Essex has also seen a dry month.  I think it comes down to the rain having come in storms of torrential rainfall which dumped large amounts in some places and nothing at all in others.  If the official recording stations have been in places that got hit by the heavy rainfall, this would give an imprecise view of the overall picture.


It is also worth noting that here the year total to end August is exactly 100% of the LTA total for that period, which would give the impression that rainfall had been normal in this part of the country.  But that would be entirely misleading because the figure was substantially affected by the very wet February (275% of monthly LTA) which was followed by weeks of desiccating NE winds which turned the ground from a quagmire to bone dry, combined with 5 months of below average rainfall (Apr-Aug here has given 59% of LTA for those months), resulting in an agricultural drought.


This all just goes to show that averaged statistics (whether averaged over space or time - or both) can give a misleading impression if local and temporal variations from the average are not taken into account.  It all reminds me of the joke that someone with his head in an oven and his feet in a freezer is, on average, perfectly comfortable.


 


Originally Posted by: AJ* 


 



MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
severnside
06 September 2020 21:28:36

Before this thread dies off, next years summer will be in the new decade. I would like to see others opinions on this. If we take 50's ,60's , 70's etc , all have had differing summers in each decade, the sixties were cooler, seventies some hot some cool. In my judgement the nineties had the best of the summers with the noughties more of a mix, and since 2011 maybe a bit worse than the previous decade ?


So what will this new decade bring? cooler more unsettled summers ? Hotter and drier ? With the sun going to sleep , will we start seeing changes?

johncs2016
06 September 2020 23:36:39


Before this thread dies off, next years summer will be in the new decade. I would like to see others opinions on this. If we take 50's ,60's , 70's etc , all have had differing summers in each decade, the sixties were cooler, seventies some hot some cool. In my judgement the nineties had the best of the summers with the noughties more of a mix, and since 2011 maybe a bit worse than the previous decade ?


So what will this new decade bring? cooler more unsettled summers ? Hotter and drier ? With the sun going to sleep , will we start seeing changes?


Originally Posted by: severnside 


One thing which is certain is that by this time next year, the Met Office is likely to have published all of the official 1991-2020 averages which may well eventually replace the current 1981-2010 averages that are currently used for reporting just about all of our various statistics with the notable exception of the CET and possibly the odd other thing, where the even older 1961-1990 averages are still used for officially reporting that.


Given the current levels of warming, I would expect the 1990-2020 average temperatures to be on average, higher than than the 1981-2010 and since the summer of 2020 brought us just average temperatures here in Edinburgh when that is taken against the 1981-2010 averages, I would therefore expect that summer to actually be cooler than average if that was taken against the 1990-2020 averages.


What I might end up doing when those 1991-2020 averages are eventually released is to report an unofficial comparison with those 1991-2020 averages when I'm reporting the various statistics on this forum for this part of world, just to see how that compares with those anomalies as compared with the older 1981-2010 averages as I am reporting them just now.


That should at least help to build up a food indication over time, of how our temperatures, etc. have actually changed in more recent years.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 September 2020 05:33:30


 


What I might end up doing when those 1991-2020 averages are eventually released is to report an unofficial comparison with those 1991-2020 averages when I'm reporting the various statistics on this forum for this part of world, just to see how that compares with those anomalies as compared with the older 1981-2010 averages as I am reporting them just now.


That should at least help to build up a food indication over time, of how our temperatures, etc. have actually changed in more recent years.


 


Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


Worth doing - I look forward to it.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
07 September 2020 07:53:06


 


I agree with the other posts from the SE. We could see storms over the Downs inland, my sister in the New Forest reported flash floods on a couple of occasions in August but it stayed bone dry here along the coastal strip. The lawn is still showing bare patches but I think it will come round. 


Brian in Hign Wycombe posted a rather complacent post in mid-August about having no more need to water the garden when I was still pouring large quantities onto ours, and continued to do so until just over a week ago.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Thanks for the affirmation, DEW.  I'm still pouring large quantities of water onto my garden, and at least one plant has died because I forgot to water it before I went on holiday in August.  A honeysuckle plant has just dropped most of its leaves prematurely, and I hope I'm not too late to save it.  But I'd better stop before this turns into a gardening thread...


Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
07 September 2020 09:07:24
going by the SEPA rain gauge 2 miles away this 'summer' averages 218% of the average which we you consider the start of June was great shows how wet the last 10-11 weeks of the season was.
quite similar to last year in that it declined month on month but managed to be wetter still.
Why does it always rain on me?

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