Metcheck               18.93c          Anomaly         2.71c

Netweather            19.42c         Anomaly          3.23c

Peasedown St John   18.7c          Anomaly          2.32c.

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Well, there it is. Near-optimal setup for producing very low minima for late August.

The signal has strengthened today BUT hasn't moved closer, transition still taking place at 6 days range.

The key trough is at 4-5 days range, but it remains to be seen if further smaller lows sneak through the mid-Atlantic ridge, as we see for Thu-Fri. If they do, they could be vigorous, given the steep temperature gradient taking shape.

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Well, there it is. Near-optimal setup for producing very low minima for late August.

The signal has strengthened today BUT hasn't moved closer, transition still taking place at 6 days range.

The key trough is at 4-5 days range, but it remains to be seen if further smaller lows sneak through the mid-Atlantic ridge, as we see for Thu-Fri. If they do, they could be vigorous, given the steep temperature gradient taking shape.

Thanks for the analysis 

As long as this setup doesn't tank the CET too much (but just enough) 

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Met Office Hadley           18.9c          Anomaly         3.0c Provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                        18.82c        Anomaly         2.60c

Netweather                     19.32c        Anomaly         3.13c

Peasedown St John.       18.38c       Anomaly         2.0c.

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Did a rough estimate using the GFS 12z and got the same final CET, to 100th of a °C, as I did from the previous one using the GFS 00z of 21st .

Yes, I did check that the formulas were in place!

 

For what it's worth, that final figure is 17.53°C. The final four days of the month have an average max in the mid-14s °C and an average min in the mid-9s °C. It keeps more of a breeze going than some other recent runs, hence it doesn't produce the unseasonably low minima that have the potential to occur if conditions are more slack. The trade-off is cooler maximums. 

Personally, I'd rather it the other way around - warmer days in exchange for cooler nights!

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No. 13th August was slightly cooler than 6 August.

Hadley has the 6th at 20.0 and the 13th at 21.2 (prov). 

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I hope it destroys the CET to get closer to my guess.
Although it does seem a waste of a scorching first half of August that we are now seemingly heading for yet another "warmest since 2004" (a benchmark that I don't even recall as being all that hot , a perception no doubt clouded - literally - by all the rain and thunder).

I remain convinced that another 1995 or 97 with consistent heat persistent across at least two thirds of the month is on its way in the next few years.

Met Office Hadley            18.8c        Anomaly       2.9c  Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                          18.69c     Anomaly       2.46c

Netweather                       19.19c     Anomaly       3.0c

Peasedown St John        18.22c       Anomaly       1.84c.

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Met Office Hadley        18.7c       Anomaly       2.8c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                     18.59c     Anomaly       2.39c

Netweather                  19.08c      Anomaly       2.89c

Peasedown St John     18.24c      Anomaly       1.86c.  

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CET tracker showing a slight fall in the final expected temperature due to expected cool nights over the weekend. 

Latest estimate is 17.75C

Chart 1

Chart 2

Thanks GW. These cold nights over the weekend are going to do a LOT of damage! 

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18.6°C to 25th prov.

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18.5°C provisional to 26th.

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Metcheck                    18.35c        Anomaly       2.73c

Netweather                 18.89c        Anomaly       2.7c

Peasedown St John      18.02c        Anomaly       1.4c.   

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Met Office Hadley         18.4c       Anomaly        2.5c. Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                      18.94c     Anomaly        1.97c   

Netweather                   18.71c     Anomaly        2.52c

Peasedown St John      18.02c      Anomaly       1.64c

 

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Met Office Hadley           18.2c        Anomaly      2.4c.   Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                        17.97c       Anomaly     1.75c

Netweather                     18.51c       Anomaly     2.32c

Peasedown St John       17.49c       Anomaly      1.11c.       

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Latest estimate of final CET, using the GFS 06z numbers, is 17.6°C.

That's from the provisional CET as of 28th, mind, so it could be a tenth or two either side of that.

Such corrections are less likely than usual, though, as we had that rare lower provisional than GW estimate earlier this month, after the heatwave, followed by more typical conditions with the provisional tending to overestimate, which judging by GW's last update four days ago, has resulted in a cancelling out of errors.

From my perspective, it's honestly a little annoying to be more than half a degree out despite nailing the overall pattern of the month, but considering just how exceptional that heatwave turned out to be, I suppose I should be thankful not to be over a degree out .

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Latest estimate of final CET, using the GFS 06z numbers, is 17.6°C.

That's from the provisional CET as of 28th, mind, so it could be a tenth or two either side of that.

Such corrections are less likely than usual, though, as we had that rare lower provisional than GW estimate earlier this month, after the heatwave, followed by more typical conditions with the provisional tending to overestimate, which judging by GW's last update four days ago, has resulted in a cancelling out of errors.

From my perspective, it's honestly a little annoying to be more than half a degree out despite nailing the overall pattern of the month, but considering just how exceptional that heatwave turned out to be, I suppose I should be thankful not to be over a degree out .

17.5c would be perfect!  

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Met OFFICE Hadley          18.0c         Anomaly        2.2c. Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                         17.77c       Anomaly         1.54c

Netweather                      18.29c       Anomaly         2.1c

Peasedown St John        17.42c       Anomaly       1.04c.  

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Regarding September Global Warming's PM'S are full so unable to send guess.

 

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