More fascinating stats from GW - cheers. The climate trend sure is alarming, it's like we've jumped onto a trampoline in the past few years.
GFS 00z supports my recent deduction that I will probably have the temperature pattern across the month about right, but be near a degree Celsius too low with my estimate, having underestimated the heatwave (hardly surprising, given how extreme the peak days ended up being).
Rough CET estimate takes until 22nd to drop below the 19s, then 27th to drop below the 18s.
There's an issue with taking much from this, though - it's one of the coolest runs I've seen for the final week of the month. Goes to show how much of a reserve Aug 2020 has now. Even more impressive when considering that four days into the month, the CET was running well below average!
Really, it's the very gradual transition of the Atlantic trough eastward this coming week that renders a finish below the mid-17s as highly unlikely. Remains to be seen just how gradual, as there will be ex-Kyle getting involved, but even if it turned out a couple of days quicker or slower, that'd only affect the final CET by less than half a degree by my reckoning.
Sigh... the summer months have a habit of giving me headaches and not just when it's hot and humid .
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T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
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