Just went to do my first CET projection in a while and noticed that the short to mid-range model-based CET estimate range for 25th July as of 30th June was 16.2 to 16.6°C. That’s with average conditions as a placeholder for 16th-31st.
Onto this, the warmer than average week 3-4 signal was applied. This being for the weeks of the year they have among the highest long-term averages to begin with. Resulting range was mid-16s to high 17s. I won’t deny that I should have played it safer within that range... as soon as 3rd July I was wondering why I didn’t go for high 16s. Foolish mistake on my part.
So, what of that new projection... well, the CET edges up slightly to 15.7°C as of 27th, only to lose that gain during the following two days.
Then, a much warmer final two days of the month lifts it to 15.8°C by the GFS 12z run or 15.9°C by the ECM 12z run.
This is using that provisional CET as a starting point, though. So we could well be talking one to three tenths lower in reality.
I expect that that warmer finish is being underestimated as usual, but as a counter to that, the minima early Tue and early Wed could be lower than modelled, given the combo of light winds and a quite cool airmass moving through. We saw that a bit early last week, which hit the CET quite hard.
On the other hand, Tue-Wed daytime may well be warmer than modelled. So maybe we see more of an overall climb in the CET. It'll do well to reach 16.0°C, though.
I honestly can't quite believe I'm writing that... the week 3-4 signals were so incredibly misleading, this month . Gusty, you picked a great time to live under a rock! :p
Edited by user
Sunday, July 26, 2020 8:09:08 PM
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