This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during July, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard.
For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for June should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread.
The first half of 2020 has been close to record breaking in terms of average temperature. What does the second half of the year hold for us?
Historic CET summary for July
1971-2000 16.5C (30 years)
1981-2010 16.7C (30 years)
2000-2019 16.8C (last 20 years)
The warmest July in recent times was 2018 with 19.1C. The coolest was 2011 with 15.2C. The July CET has not been below 15.2C since 1988. Record CET for July is 19.7C in 2006.
Here is a chart of the July CET for all years since 1961
IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page
Direct link to larger version of the chart
Current model output
GFS 850s close to average but lots of scatter as early as 4 July. T2m below average initially and then generally close to average
GFS 850's https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=
GFS T2m https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=
ECM also close to average in terms of the ENS mean. But several runs going for something a bit warmer from around 5/6 July.
ECM ENS T2m http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png
Met Office contingency planners outlook
Not yet available
Edited by moderator
01 September 2020 08:15:16
|
Reason: Not specified