I would agree with that  GFS does still end up with a trough parked over Britain, but it seems to be getting pushed further out into the future.

I would still like to see a proper burst of 20C+ uppers at some stage, but in our location it seems that you can only get this with an approaching low that inevitably leads to a breakdown. So it can wait another few weeks :)

Never the less we are still in an incredibly prolonged spell of above average temps and very below average rainfall.

It’s an unusual pattern. I’ll take warm and dry for months on end over hot & rainy for a few days.

Except for the 35

That plot shows 35C.

Brilliant GFS out to day 8-9. The breakdown pushed back yet again.
Maybe not quite so hot, but definitely mostly dry. Summer 2018 keeps on giving.

It starts going pear shaped at day 10 - but this keeps getting pushed back to day 10 and beyond.

Excuse the focus on a hypothetical FI chart, but 12z GFS raises the possibility of a low trying to push into a Scandy block. What’s the betting that the high will be more stubborn than forecast and the low will ease away to the SW? 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_225_1.png

I’m still not yet convinced of a meaningful breakdown. In the reliable timeframe, the dry spell continues. 

Been keeping an eye on the models and it seems any breakdown doesn't make it past about 9-10 days out. Things cool slightly after this weekend but with uppers often close to 10c @ 850 it's still likely to be mid to high 20's for many for the foreseeable future. I'd also not be surprised to see another feed of hotter air at some point - there's got to be a chance that any attempt at a low pressure incursion just serves to drag up more hot air with high pressure not being dislodged.

Personally I'm thoroughly fed up with the heat but I'm aware that puts me very much in the minority

I imagine the GFS ens when they come out will back up the last few sets and confirm it's looking largely settled and very warm to hot, with a chance of cooler and more unsettled weather from circa 15-16th. Not sure I'd go with it being a high chance though.

Be interesting to see the ECM later although the ens would be of more value than the Op in terms of FI pattern.

Dorset aiming to replicate temperatures encountered during the Jurassic period

Yes they seem more confident on this mid-month blip, despite the models actually trending drier and more settled in recent runs.

Working in education and seeing the summer holidays come ever closer, it is encouraging to see the MetO bullish on a return to more very warm and settled periods during August. 'Bout time we enjoyed a decent August! 

The last unsettled blip in mid-June which was started by Storm Hector lasted only a few days before high pressure returned.

I guess that we shall just need to keep an eye on the models over the weekend to see whether or not they generally come round to the MetO's prediction of a unsettled blip in mid-July, but just like the models, these updates can sometimes change substantially within the space of 24hrs too. I seem to remember how early last July they were expecting a nationwide improvement in the weather and for a time the models were in good agreement with them. However. almost all of a sudden the models flipped and showed cooler and unsettled weather returning after a brief very warm spell in the middle of last July.

Personally speaking, I will only really begin to think that we can only be properly sure of any breakdown or blip if or when it makes in into the range of the UKMO run.

Still good.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Count me in - I'm sick of the heat. Its like the European summer has moved north several degrees (one reason why that has happened I cannot mention....). We could do with rain too, thought this is nothing like 1976.

Sadly, I suspect we might need a hurricane or tropical storm to change things - and there is one now and another possible atm, so they might influence our shores in a week to ten days.

That's certainly possible (although the cold SSTs in the tropical Atlantic might make that less likely, especially if we then go into an El Nino in the ENSO region in line with the models are predicting).

I can remember one summer not all that long ago in 2014 when we were having a really good summer (especially during July) until an ex-hurricane moved towards us and sent us into a much poorer August. Then another ex-hurricane took a different path in such a way that it promoted a huge area of high pressure to build ahead of it, which then brought our really good weather back during September which then, ended up being an extension of that summer as a result.

From what I have learned, 2014 is currently the warmest year on record according to the CET series with the previous record having only been set in 2006. Another thing which I can remember as well about that year of 2014, was that August of that year was the only month during that entire month (as far as I can remember) which had a colder than average CET with an anomaly of about -0.8ºC according to the 1961-1990 average.

And at page 50.

GFS is still reluctant to give the UK any hope of a breakdown in our Summer Heat and Sunshine.

While the ECMWF Model tends to keep suggesting a breakdown is possible in the mid range time frame aka T168-240 etc etc.

Yeah after Monday it should be less warm, but it should remain dry and sunny with some fair weather clouds about for many.

Upto Saturday 14th July- will the GFS High Pressure And SE England very warm weather continue- I think GFS is better at it than ECMWF at 192-240 hours.

What about after: more Azores High with very warm conditions.

That area of Lower Temps. In North Atlantic late next week and into Sat. 14th appears to remain locked in for a while longer.  More warm air from Canada and USA cross NW and N Atlantic with some cool and chilly air masses over Greenland and Iceland as the Polar Vortex has been dominant feature for so many years I cannot count with my hands- will be remain rampant for another 96 hours hmm.

As the battle between warm and very warm air is generally lost we see that very warm and hot weather carries a higher chance of win win that us getting a cool Westerly or NW’ Westerly.😆 Proper Summer luck.  I am very impressed that in the Period of 17th May to 15th June the London Temperatures and Wider UK Min and Max. temperatures stayed within 9-24 degrees C which I had been really happy to see.  Hot and sunny weather is better though I agree but uncomfortable for sleeping at night..

And it is good to see a few days of below 27 degrees C temperatures for much of the UK, this summer May to July has shown us that a super long dry period is what we are continuing to experience.

Summer of 1990 was warmer than this!!. It reached 36 degrees C on 2nd or 3rd August that year in Southern Central England, while the number of days above 26 this summer appear to be higher than Summer 1990!!😎😆😉.