Dreaming of a white Christmas?

Can we expect snow this Christmas? Until a few days before the big day it's usually not possible to say with any certainty, but that doesn't stop us taking a fun look ahead as we count down to December 25th.   
 
 

Christmas 2016 countdown

Christmas weather forecast introduction

Welcome to our dedicated Christmas 2016 weather forecast page. If forecasting a few days ahead is prone to error in the UK how it is possible to forecast a single day several months ahead? The simple answer is it isn't! Usually it's not until the second week of December that confidence in the forecast begins to rise.

The 'computer says' forecasts are produced using data from the seasonal CFSv2 model and are updated daily. 'TheWeatherOutlook says' forecasts look at the data from the computer models and how the weather is developing during the autumn, and are usually updated weekly.

Please remember that and understand this page is primarily for fun, as the days grow shorter, the weather turns miserable, and the big day approaches.

TheWeatherOutlook daily update says

The twelfth update suggests a lower chance of snow this Christmas in both the north and south. Computer model guidance is now pointing towards a more mobile pattern developing during the second week of December and this is expected to bring milder air in from the southwest. As we head towards Christmas a westerly based pattern may become established and in this set-up snow would only be likely over high ground in the north. Nonetheless, it is very important to point out that there remains a lot of time for things to change. Don't write off a White Christmas yet! 

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

Forecast issued
Update 12, 01/12/2016

The computer says [Issued 03/12/2016 22:22:36]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
  • Snow is expected in the Netherlands

  -

Other forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook

Check the latest local weather forecasts using the place of postcode selector near the top of this page. Links below are to UK discussion and long range outlooks on the site.

You may be interested in

© TheWeatherOutlook - http://www.theweatheroutlook.com


DISCUSSION

Regularly updated discussion forecasts.

14 day outlook

Monthly outlook

Seasonal outlook

Christmas outlook