BBC predicting -3 to -5*C minimums widely for both Fri-Sat and Sat-Sun, now that would really knock the CET on the head... could be a striking step-down, albeit not nearly as extreme as theoretically possible (imagine, for example, if we had a record-warm 1st half but then a 'Beast from the East'!).
A rough estimate using the GFS 06z gives a final CET of 6.4*C.
Despite the BBC figures for the next two nights being 4-5*C lower, putting those in only drops the final estimate by 0.1*C, so not that much impact after all!
Each additional similarly cold night after that, out to the one into Thu 23rd, knocks just under 0.1*C off the final estimate. So it may be more significant should skies stay clear, with light winds, for at least a few days into next week.
Seems unlikely that the CET will fall far enough for my Jan 'prediction'. Looking back at it, I was a bit surprised for a moment at how low it was (5.67*C), before reminding myself that it's still over 1*C above the LTA.
Hammers home how extraordinarily mild this month has been so far.
Edited by user
Friday, January 17, 2020 11:19:23 AM
| Reason: Enduring Estimates