GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
06 January 2020 11:12:42

Originally Posted by: Caz 

I’m certainly thinking I’ve gone too low with 5.2c!  

I foolishly put some faith in the Met Office 4 week outlook which has consistently forecast temperatures returning to nearer normal, possibly cold at times. So I was expecting a dip later in the month. Could still happen I suppose but now looking unlikely.


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Stormchaser
06 January 2020 11:14:51

Wow GW, I'm impressed by your bravado!

I was seriously deliberating a very high estimate for this month, seeing that so much is in place for that, but kept getting this nasty feeling that if I did so, high pressure would manage to build just about far north enough to produce some cold inversion weather at times.

The risk of that increases as the month goes on, due to the seasonal vortex easing aided by the QBO turning more and more easterly.

 

So, I cowardly backed out of anything much more than a degree above the LTA. Let's see how much I regret it now, having told you what I might have done .

 


Liking your thinking regarding odds of March being the lowest-CET month. We really do need to see some good releases of cold air from the Arctic to reduce the snow cover deficits across the mid-latitudes in general, else the spring heat-up is going to be rampant with so little to oppose it.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com 🙂

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2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

ARTzeman
06 January 2020 11:20:51

Met Office Hadley          6.7c.       Anomaly     3.2c Provisional to 6th

Metcheck                      6.74c        Anomaly    2.59c

Netweather                   7.25c        Anomaly    3.06c

Peasedown St John      7.5c       Anomaly        2.22c   




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Bolty
06 January 2020 12:31:29
So January running higher than both November and December so far, and there's not much sign of any significant drop in that figure for the forseeable either. It would be incedible if January turned out to be the warmest month of the extended winter (November to March included). I wonder when the last time that happened was, if ever?
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Spring Sun Winter Dread
06 January 2020 13:51:00
In 1916 it was by some margin. Both November and March surrounding that winter were exceptionally cold. Must have been a very strange winter and nature must have got very confused
picturesareme
06 January 2020 20:07:20

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

In 1916 it was by some margin. Both November and March surrounding that winter were exceptionally cold. Must have been a very strange winter and nature must have got very confused

Yes at 7.5C 

ARTzeman
07 January 2020 10:56:04

Met Office Hadley      6th January 2019 CET was  3.9c.

Met Office Hadley            7.0c.        Anomaly        3.4c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                         6.71c       Anomaly        2.55c

Netweather                      6.31c       Anomaly        3.12c

Peasedown St John     7.5c      Anomaly      2.22c.          




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Hungry Tiger
07 January 2020 11:27:06

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

Met Office Hadley      6th January 2019 CET was  3.9c.

Met Office Hadley            7.0c.        Anomaly        3.4c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                         6.71c       Anomaly        2.55c

Netweather                      6.31c       Anomaly        3.12c

Peasedown St John     7.5c      Anomaly      2.22c.          

Phew - I went for 6.0C thinking that was quite high. At this rate I've gone too low.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



ARTzeman
08 January 2020 11:49:31

Met Office Hadley         7.1c        Anomaly     3.6c Provisional to 7th

Metcheck                      7.30c      Anomaly     3.15c

Netweather                   7.62c      Anomaly     3.43c

Peasedown St John      7.8c       Anomaly      2.52c       




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Hungry Tiger
08 January 2020 14:07:39
When you think we're on 7.1C atm. No cold spells in sight We're in the top 5 mildest January's territory now.  


5. 7.0 2007

4. 7.1 1834

3. 7.3 1796

2. 7.3 1921

1. 7.5 1916


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Whether Idle
09 January 2020 08:11:22

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

When you think we're on 7.1C atm. No cold spells in sight We're in the top 5 mildest January's territory now.  


5. 7.0 2007

4. 7.1 1834

3. 7.3 1796

2. 7.3 1921

1. 7.5 1916

Average temperatures from now to the end of the month will result in a drop to between 5 and 6, slightly above average will result in a drop to around 6c. 

Maintaining or even exceeding 7c will take some doing, its not impossible but not that likely either.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
ARTzeman
09 January 2020 10:54:51

Met Office Hadley         7.4c.        Anomaly       3.9c. Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                     7.50c        Anomaly       3.34c

Netweather                  7.89c        Anomaly       3.7c

Peasedown St John      8.2c         Anomaly       2.92c.  




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Hungry Tiger
09 January 2020 13:59:57

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

Met Office Hadley         7.4c.        Anomaly       3.9c. Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                     7.50c        Anomaly       3.34c

Netweather                  7.89c        Anomaly       3.7c

Peasedown St John      8.2c         Anomaly       2.92c.  

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Global Warming
09 January 2020 22:07:01

Still looking quite mild for the foreseeable future. Not quite as warm as in the earlier update but the CET sticks above 7C for the foreseeable future, albeit somewhat below the CET record figure.

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TABLE1

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TABLE2


Hungry Tiger
10 January 2020 10:02:40

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Still looking quite mild for the foreseeable future. Not quite as warm as in the earlier update but the CET sticks above 7C for the foreseeable future, albeit somewhat below the CET record figure.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

TABLE1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

TABLE2


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



ARTzeman
10 January 2020 11:05:36

Met Office Hadley        7.5c      Anomaly      3.6c. Provisional to 9th

Metcheck                     7.30c    Anomaly      3.15c

Netweather                  7.62c    Anomaly      3.43c

Peasedown St John      8.2c     Anomaly      2.92c    




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Gusty
10 January 2020 11:07:29

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

Met Office Hadley        7.5c      Anomaly      3.6c. Provisional to 9th

Metcheck                     7.30c    Anomaly      3.15c

Netweather                  7.62c    Anomaly      3.43c

Peasedown St John      8.2c     Anomaly      2.92c    

...before Gavin gets in first. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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ARTzeman
10 January 2020 11:17:34

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

 

...before Gavin gets in first. 

👍👌😈😵😭💪




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Gavin P
10 January 2020 12:08:02

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

When you think we're on 7.1C atm. No cold spells in sight We're in the top 5 mildest January's territory now.  


5. 7.0 2007

4. 7.1 1834

3. 7.3 1796

2. 7.3 1921

1. 7.5 1916

Must have been remarkable to get the first and second warmest January's on CET record within five years of each other! 


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Hungry Tiger
10 January 2020 13:42:41

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

Met Office Hadley        7.5c      Anomaly      3.6c. Provisional to 9th

Metcheck                     7.30c    Anomaly      3.15c

Netweather                  7.62c    Anomaly      3.43c

Peasedown St John      8.2c     Anomaly      2.92c    

Phew - we're now equalling the record.


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



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