Donate to browse the TWO website without adverts until 31st December 2024. You'll also get access to extra features and supporting our ongoing development.
For full details please see Advert free access on our website.
Remove ads from site
I’m certainly thinking I’ve gone too low with 5.2c!
Originally Posted by: Caz
I foolishly put some faith in the Met Office 4 week outlook which has consistently forecast temperatures returning to nearer normal, possibly cold at times. So I was expecting a dip later in the month. Could still happen I suppose but now looking unlikely.
Wow GW, I'm impressed by your bravado!
I was seriously deliberating a very high estimate for this month, seeing that so much is in place for that, but kept getting this nasty feeling that if I did so, high pressure would manage to build just about far north enough to produce some cold inversion weather at times.
The risk of that increases as the month goes on, due to the seasonal vortex easing aided by the QBO turning more and more easterly.
So, I cowardly backed out of anything much more than a degree above the LTA. Let's see how much I regret it now, having told you what I might have done .
Liking your thinking regarding odds of March being the lowest-CET month. We really do need to see some good releases of cold air from the Arctic to reduce the snow cover deficits across the mid-latitudes in general, else the spring heat-up is going to be rampant with so little to oppose it.
Met Office Hadley 6.7c. Anomaly 3.2c Provisional to 6th
Metcheck 6.74c Anomaly 2.59c
Netweather 7.25c Anomaly 3.06c
Peasedown St John 7.5c Anomaly 2.22c
In 1916 it was by some margin. Both November and March surrounding that winter were exceptionally cold. Must have been a very strange winter and nature must have got very confused
Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread
Yes at 7.5C
Met Office Hadley 6th January 2019 CET was 3.9c.
Met Office Hadley 7.0c. Anomaly 3.4c. Provisional to 6th.
Metcheck 6.71c Anomaly 2.55c
Netweather 6.31c Anomaly 3.12c
Peasedown St John 7.5c Anomaly 2.22c.
Originally Posted by: ARTzeman
Phew - I went for 6.0C thinking that was quite high. At this rate I've gone too low.
Met Office Hadley 7.1c Anomaly 3.6c Provisional to 7th
Metcheck 7.30c Anomaly 3.15c
Netweather 7.62c Anomaly 3.43c
Peasedown St John 7.8c Anomaly 2.52c
When you think we're on 7.1C atm. No cold spells in sight We're in the top 5 mildest January's territory now. 5. 7.0 2007 4. 7.1 1834 3. 7.3 1796 2. 7.3 1921 1. 7.5 1916
Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger
Average temperatures from now to the end of the month will result in a drop to between 5 and 6, slightly above average will result in a drop to around 6c.
Maintaining or even exceeding 7c will take some doing, its not impossible but not that likely either.
Met Office Hadley 7.4c. Anomaly 3.9c. Provisional to 8th.
Metcheck 7.50c Anomaly 3.34c
Netweather 7.89c Anomaly 3.7c
Peasedown St John 8.2c Anomaly 2.92c.
Still looking quite mild for the foreseeable future. Not quite as warm as in the earlier update but the CET sticks above 7C for the foreseeable future, albeit somewhat below the CET record figure.
TABLE1
TABLE2
Originally Posted by: Global Warming
Met Office Hadley 7.5c Anomaly 3.6c. Provisional to 9th
Peasedown St John 8.2c Anomaly 2.92c
...before Gavin gets in first.
Originally Posted by: Gusty
Must have been remarkable to get the first and second warmest January's on CET record within five years of each other!
Phew - we're now equalling the record.