Yes at 7.5C 

Met Office Hadley      6th January 2019 CET was  3.9c.

Met Office Hadley            7.0c.        Anomaly        3.4c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                         6.71c       Anomaly        2.55c

Netweather                      6.31c       Anomaly        3.12c

Peasedown St John     7.5c      Anomaly      2.22c.          

Phew - I went for 6.0C thinking that was quite high. At this rate I've gone too low.

Met Office Hadley         7.1c        Anomaly     3.6c Provisional to 7th

Metcheck                      7.30c      Anomaly     3.15c

Netweather                   7.62c      Anomaly     3.43c

Peasedown St John      7.8c       Anomaly      2.52c       

When you think we're on 7.1C atm. No cold spells in sight We're in the top 5 mildest January's territory now.  


  5.  7.0 2007     
  4.  7.1 1834      
  3.  7.3 1796    

               
  2.  7.3 1921    
  1.  7.5 1916 

When you think we're on 7.1C atm. No cold spells in sight We're in the top 5 mildest January's territory now.  


  5.  7.0 2007     
  4.  7.1 1834      
  3.  7.3 1796    

               
  2.  7.3 1921    
  1.  7.5 1916 

Average temperatures from now to the end of the month will result in a drop to between 5 and 6, slightly above average will result in a drop to around 6c. 

Maintaining or even exceeding 7c will take some doing, its not impossible but not that likely either.

Met Office Hadley         7.4c.        Anomaly       3.9c. Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                     7.50c        Anomaly       3.34c

Netweather                  7.89c        Anomaly       3.7c

Peasedown St John      8.2c         Anomaly       2.92c.  

Still looking quite mild for the foreseeable future. Not quite as warm as in the earlier update but the CET sticks above 7C for the foreseeable future, albeit somewhat below the CET record figure.

TABLE1

TABLE2

Met Office Hadley        7.5c      Anomaly      3.6c. Provisional to 9th

Metcheck                     7.30c    Anomaly      3.15c

Netweather                  7.62c    Anomaly      3.43c

Peasedown St John      8.2c     Anomaly      2.92c    

...before Gavin gets in first. 

When you think we're on 7.1C atm. No cold spells in sight We're in the top 5 mildest January's territory now.  


  5.  7.0 2007     
  4.  7.1 1834      
  3.  7.3 1796    

               
  2.  7.3 1921    
  1.  7.5 1916 

Must have been remarkable to get the first and second warmest January's on CET record within five years of each other! 

Phew - we're now equalling the record.

Is now, for sure; not sure the populus contemporarius felt the rush!

The CET was around 8.5c at this stage of the month back in 1916 Caz. 

Here's a possible spanner in the works for a record-mild January.

It will depend on how much amplitude the MJO carries into phases 6 and 7, as these promote high pressure across the UK in positions that tend to become chilly at the surface - though only with much probability for phase 7, which is currently looking questionable.

If it only holds through phase 6, then high pressure may dominate but from too far south to bring low temperatures to the CET region.

Incidentally, propagation to phase 7 could also set up some interesting stratospheric events... provided enough of the MJO action is in the N. Hemisphere. I'm still haunted by last year's S. Hemisphere-skewed MJO in Jan-Feb and the resulting huge shortfall on cold UK weather (albeit not entirely fruitless).

Not one day below average!

Now this got me thinking, how many months have had the daily CET below or above average for the entire month? Only the most extreme ones I would imagine. For winter months (summer can wait for warmer times) Jan/Feb 1963 spring to mind and also possibly Feb 1986. And moving in the other direction, Dec 2015.

Met Office Hadley        7.3c     Anomaly    3.7c. Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                    7.28c    Anomaly    3.13c

Netweather                 7.75c    Anomaly    3.65c

Peasedown St john     8.0c   Anomaly    2.72c.     

I must be TWO’s greatest lover of record breaking weather but I can’t get excited this month because sadly, I don’t think it’s a contender!