I’m certainly thinking I’ve gone too low with 5.2c!  

I foolishly put some faith in the Met Office 4 week outlook which has consistently forecast temperatures returning to nearer normal, possibly cold at times. So I was expecting a dip later in the month. Could still happen I suppose but now looking unlikely.

Wow GW, I'm impressed by your bravado!

I was seriously deliberating a very high estimate for this month, seeing that so much is in place for that, but kept getting this nasty feeling that if I did so, high pressure would manage to build just about far north enough to produce some cold inversion weather at times.

The risk of that increases as the month goes on, due to the seasonal vortex easing aided by the QBO turning more and more easterly.

So, I cowardly backed out of anything much more than a degree above the LTA. Let's see how much I regret it now, having told you what I might have done .

Liking your thinking regarding odds of March being the lowest-CET month. We really do need to see some good releases of cold air from the Arctic to reduce the snow cover deficits across the mid-latitudes in general, else the spring heat-up is going to be rampant with so little to oppose it.

Met Office Hadley          6.7c.       Anomaly     3.2c Provisional to 6th

Metcheck                      6.74c        Anomaly    2.59c

Netweather                   7.25c        Anomaly    3.06c

Peasedown St John      7.5c       Anomaly        2.22c   

In 1916 it was by some margin. Both November and March surrounding that winter were exceptionally cold. Must have been a very strange winter and nature must have got very confused

Yes at 7.5C 

Met Office Hadley      6th January 2019 CET was  3.9c.

Met Office Hadley            7.0c.        Anomaly        3.4c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                         6.71c       Anomaly        2.55c

Netweather                      6.31c       Anomaly        3.12c

Peasedown St John     7.5c      Anomaly      2.22c.          

Met Office Hadley      6th January 2019 CET was  3.9c.

Met Office Hadley            7.0c.        Anomaly        3.4c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                         6.71c       Anomaly        2.55c

Netweather                      6.31c       Anomaly        3.12c

Peasedown St John     7.5c      Anomaly      2.22c.          

Phew - I went for 6.0C thinking that was quite high. At this rate I've gone too low.

Met Office Hadley         7.1c        Anomaly     3.6c Provisional to 7th

Metcheck                      7.30c      Anomaly     3.15c

Netweather                   7.62c      Anomaly     3.43c

Peasedown St John      7.8c       Anomaly      2.52c       

When you think we're on 7.1C atm. No cold spells in sight We're in the top 5 mildest January's territory now.  


  5.  7.0 2007     
  4.  7.1 1834      
  3.  7.3 1796    

               
  2.  7.3 1921    
  1.  7.5 1916 

When you think we're on 7.1C atm. No cold spells in sight We're in the top 5 mildest January's territory now.  


  5.  7.0 2007     
  4.  7.1 1834      
  3.  7.3 1796    

               
  2.  7.3 1921    
  1.  7.5 1916 

Average temperatures from now to the end of the month will result in a drop to between 5 and 6, slightly above average will result in a drop to around 6c. 

Maintaining or even exceeding 7c will take some doing, its not impossible but not that likely either.

Met Office Hadley         7.4c.        Anomaly       3.9c. Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                     7.50c        Anomaly       3.34c

Netweather                  7.89c        Anomaly       3.7c

Peasedown St John      8.2c         Anomaly       2.92c.  

Met Office Hadley         7.4c.        Anomaly       3.9c. Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                     7.50c        Anomaly       3.34c

Netweather                  7.89c        Anomaly       3.7c

Peasedown St John      8.2c         Anomaly       2.92c.  

Still looking quite mild for the foreseeable future. Not quite as warm as in the earlier update but the CET sticks above 7C for the foreseeable future, albeit somewhat below the CET record figure.

TABLE1

TABLE2

Still looking quite mild for the foreseeable future. Not quite as warm as in the earlier update but the CET sticks above 7C for the foreseeable future, albeit somewhat below the CET record figure.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

TABLE1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

TABLE2

Met Office Hadley        7.5c      Anomaly      3.6c. Provisional to 9th

Metcheck                     7.30c    Anomaly      3.15c

Netweather                  7.62c    Anomaly      3.43c

Peasedown St John      8.2c     Anomaly      2.92c    

Met Office Hadley        7.5c      Anomaly      3.6c. Provisional to 9th

Metcheck                     7.30c    Anomaly      3.15c

Netweather                  7.62c    Anomaly      3.43c

Peasedown St John      8.2c     Anomaly      2.92c    

...before Gavin gets in first. 

 

...before Gavin gets in first. 

When you think we're on 7.1C atm. No cold spells in sight We're in the top 5 mildest January's territory now.  


  5.  7.0 2007     
  4.  7.1 1834      
  3.  7.3 1796    

               
  2.  7.3 1921    
  1.  7.5 1916 

Must have been remarkable to get the first and second warmest January's on CET record within five years of each other! 

Met Office Hadley        7.5c      Anomaly      3.6c. Provisional to 9th

Metcheck                     7.30c    Anomaly      3.15c

Netweather                  7.62c    Anomaly      3.43c

Peasedown St John      8.2c     Anomaly      2.92c    

Phew - we're now equalling the record.