ARTzeman
13 January 2020 10:42:06

Met Office Hadley        7.4c         Anomaly         3.8c Provisional to 12th.


Metcheck                     7.34c       Anomaly          3.19c


Netweather                  7.94c       Anomaly          3.75c


Peasedown St John     8.2c         Anomaly         2.92c.      






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
13 January 2020 11:24:54

Hmm - perhaps I spoke too soon; more emphasis on high pressure building right up across the UK in the model runs so far today.


While not especially cold aloft, overnight frosts and chilly days look possible. Something to keep an eye on - the 06z GFS actually puts slightly more of a dent in the CET than that wild 12z of 11th; rough estimate 5.9*C to 27th as opposed to 6.0*C.


Part of that is due to a colder mid-range; beforehand there was more of a westerly flow being retained across the UK. Still time for that to be the actual outcome, not yet time to rule out an exceptionally high CET.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected] 🙂
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2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
13 January 2020 13:14:43

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Hmm - perhaps I spoke too soon; more emphasis on high pressure building right up across the UK in the model runs so far today.


While not especially cold aloft, overnight frosts and chilly days look possible. Something to keep an eye on - the 06z GFS actually puts slightly more of a dent in the CET than that wild 12z of 11th; rough estimate 5.9*C to 27th as opposed to 6.0*C.


Part of that is due to a colder mid-range; beforehand there was more of a westerly flow being retained across the UK. Still time for that to be the actual outcome, not yet time to rule out an exceptionally high CET.


My logic! It’s bound to turn wintry from 22nd because I’m going on holiday!  It almost always does!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Saint Snow
13 January 2020 13:23:18

Originally Posted by: Caz 


My logic! It’s bound to turn wintry from 22nd because I’m going on holiday!  It almost always does!  



 


Doesn't it normally turn wintry a day or two before you go away, then you're panicky about being able to get to the airport & fly?




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
13 January 2020 14:53:22

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


 


Doesn't it normally turn wintry a day or two before you go away, then you're panicky about being able to get to the airport & fly?



Yes!  You’re right it does turn wintry but it doesn’t usually snow until the day we have to drive to the airport!  I thought I was being clever in 2018 by booking for 1st March but what happened?  Beast from the East!  Then we got it again on our return 16 days later!    


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Whether Idle
13 January 2020 19:15:02

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Hmm - perhaps I spoke too soon; more emphasis on high pressure building right up across the UK in the model runs so far today.


While not especially cold aloft, overnight frosts and chilly days look possible. Something to keep an eye on - the 06z GFS actually puts slightly more of a dent in the CET than that wild 12z of 11th; rough estimate 5.9*C to 27th as opposed to 6.0*C.


Part of that is due to a colder mid-range; beforehand there was more of a westerly flow being retained across the UK. Still time for that to be the actual outcome, not yet time to rule out an exceptionally high CET.



A sub 6c finish is entirely possible depending upon where and how long the high hangs around, plus the last week is obviously in the laps of the Gods.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
ARTzeman
14 January 2020 10:52:58

Met Office Hadley        7.3c       Anomaly      3.8c  Provisional to 13th.


Metcheck                     7.30c     Anomaly       3.15c


Netweather                  7.88c     Anomaly       3.68c


Peasedown St John     8.2c       Anomaly       2.92c






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
14 January 2020 11:50:48

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


A sub 6c finish is entirely possible depending upon where and how long the high hangs around, plus the last week is obviously in the laps of the Gods.



The 12z GFS of yesterday dragged my CET estimate all the way down into the low 5s!


However, it was likely among the coldest possible outcomes, with the largest amount of continental flow. Today's runs so far have been far more maritime-dominated, struggling to even produce more than patchy overnight frosts.


So, it appears that anything from low 5s to low 8s is still plausible, with approx. low 6s to mid-7s being the 'probable' range.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected] 🙂
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2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 January 2020 14:56:52

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


The 12z GFS of yesterday dragged my CET estimate all the way down into the low 5s!


However, it was likely among the coldest possible outcomes, with the largest amount of continental flow. Today's runs so far have been far more maritime-dominated, struggling to even produce more than patchy overnight frosts.


So, it appears that anything from low 5s to low 8s is still plausible, with approx. low 6s to mid-7s being the 'probable' range.


Ha!  I’ll bet you’re just saying that to make me feel better about my 5.2c guess!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Hungry Tiger
15 January 2020 10:03:14

My goodness - still over 7.0C



Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


ARTzeman
15 January 2020 10:36:38

Met Office Hadley        7.4c.     Anomaly     3.9c. Provisional to 14th.


Metcheck                     7.41c      Anomaly      3.26c


Netweather                  7.95c    Anomaly      3.76c


Peasedown St John     8.3c      Anomaly      3.02c.   






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
16 January 2020 10:44:07

Met Office Hadley        7.4c      Anomaly      3.9c  provisional to 15th.


Metcheck                     7.33c    Anomaly      3.18c


Netweather                  7.91c    Anomaly      3.72c


Peasedown St John      8.2c     Anomaly       2.92c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
16 January 2020 15:14:07

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Ha!  I’ll bet you’re just saying that to make me feel better about my 5.2c guess!  



Rumbled .


No real change in prospects these past two days. Overall model signal is for the high to sit right across the UK until the later next week, then slip away to the southwest, perhaps to a transient cold northwesterly or northerly, after which the pattern looks to flatten out again.


We might finish the month where we began, pattern-wise. Yawn!


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected] 🙂
https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Gusty
17 January 2020 10:36:57

This high pressure could prune a degree off the CET in the next week. By this time next week we could be sitting somewhere close to 6.4c.


The last week is uncertain...deep down I suspect most of us know which way it will go. 


Somewhere between 6.1 and 6.6 is my current end of month estimate...closer to 7 if we drag some long fetch long duration moisture laden SW'lies.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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ARTzeman
17 January 2020 10:46:12

Met Office Hadley       7.5c      Anomaly    3.9c. Provisional to 16th.


Metcheck                    7.42c    Anomaly     3.27c


Netweather                 7.96c    Anomaly     3.77c


Peasedown St John     8.3c     Anomaly     3.02c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
17 January 2020 10:56:09

BBC predicting -3 to -5*C minimums widely for both Fri-Sat and Sat-Sun, now that would really knock the CET on the head... could be a striking step-down, albeit not nearly as extreme as theoretically possible (imagine, for example, if we had a record-warm 1st half but then a 'Beast from the East'!).


 


A rough estimate using the GFS 06z gives a final CET of 6.4*C. 


Despite the BBC figures for the next two nights being 4-5*C lower, putting those in only drops the final estimate by 0.1*C, so not that much impact after all!


Each additional similarly cold night after that, out to the one into Thu 23rd, knocks just under 0.1*C off the final estimate. So it may be more significant should skies stay clear, with light winds, for at least a few days into next week.


 


Seems unlikely that the CET will fall far enough for my Jan 'prediction'. Looking back at it, I was a bit surprised for a moment at how low it was (5.67*C), before reminding myself that it's still over 1*C above the LTA.


Hammers home how extraordinarily mild this month has been so far.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected] 🙂
https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Hungry Tiger
17 January 2020 13:33:34

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Met Office Hadley       7.5c      Anomaly    3.9c. Provisional to 16th.


Metcheck                    7.42c    Anomaly     3.27c


Netweather                 7.96c    Anomaly     3.77c


Peasedown St John     8.3c     Anomaly     3.02c.  




I wonder where we'll be this time next week.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
17 January 2020 14:50:56

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


 



I wonder where we'll be this time next week.


 


I’ll be on a ship cruising the Far East and slightly warmer than I am now!   
But I think the CET will be in the 6’s. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
18 January 2020 08:27:42
Met check displaying 7•24c this morning




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
18 January 2020 11:13:29

Met Office Hadley         7.4c       Anomaly     3.9c. Provisional to 17th.


Metcheck                      7.20c     Anomaly     3.05c


Netweather                   7.87c     Anomaly     3.68c


Peasedown St John      8.1c     Anomaly      2.82c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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