Must have been remarkable to get the first and second warmest January's on CET record within five years of each other! 

Is now, for sure; not sure the populus contemporarius felt the rush!

 

Phew - we're now equalling the record.

Do we know what the CET stood at on 9th January in those record breaking years?

The CET was around 8.5c at this stage of the month back in 1916 Caz. 

Here's a possible spanner in the works for a record-mild January.

It will depend on how much amplitude the MJO carries into phases 6 and 7, as these promote high pressure across the UK in positions that tend to become chilly at the surface - though only with much probability for phase 7, which is currently looking questionable.

If it only holds through phase 6, then high pressure may dominate but from too far south to bring low temperatures to the CET region.

Incidentally, propagation to phase 7 could also set up some interesting stratospheric events... provided enough of the MJO action is in the N. Hemisphere. I'm still haunted by last year's S. Hemisphere-skewed MJO in Jan-Feb and the resulting huge shortfall on cold UK weather (albeit not entirely fruitless).

Still looking quite mild for the foreseeable future. Not quite as warm as in the earlier update but the CET sticks above 7C for the foreseeable future, albeit somewhat below the CET record figure.

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Not one day below average!

Now this got me thinking, how many months have had the daily CET below or above average for the entire month? Only the most extreme ones I would imagine. For winter months (summer can wait for warmer times) Jan/Feb 1963 spring to mind and also possibly Feb 1986. And moving in the other direction, Dec 2015.

Met Office Hadley        7.3c     Anomaly    3.7c. Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                    7.28c    Anomaly    3.13c

Netweather                 7.75c    Anomaly    3.65c

Peasedown St john     8.0c   Anomaly    2.72c.     

 

The CET was around 8.5c at this stage of the month back in 1916 Caz. 

I must be TWO’s greatest lover of record breaking weather but I can’t get excited this month because sadly, I don’t think it’s a contender!  

If this evening's GFS is anything to go by, the mildest January on record is now a serious consideration.

I don’t want to knock anyone’s duck off, but I just can’t see it happening!   

Looking at how 2019 compares so far with other Januaries that have exceeded 7C as a mean CET, we are just about on course for getting near the record provided this weather type persists for most or all the rest of the month as modelled. These are the graphs for day by day CET and running averages for the month

But then if you look at other Januaries that were ahead of 2019 by this stage of the month but ended up as a "bust" this tells a different story

I think it will be close but no cigar

 

Looking at how 2019 compares so far with other Januaries that have exceeded 7C as a mean CET, we are just about on course for getting near the record provided this weather type persists for most or all the rest of the month as modelled. These are the graphs for day by day CET and running averages for the month

But then if you look at other Januaries that were ahead of 2019 by this stage of the month but ended up as a "bust" this tells a different story

I think it will be close but no cigar

 

I think it will be no cigar but I’d be happy to be wrong. 

2020!     At least you’re only one year out. I was ten out this morning.  I started the current conditions thread and had to edit it as I’d put 2010.   

I think it will be no cigar but I’d be happy to be wrong. 

I always do that - sorry 2020

 

I always do that - sorry 2020

I'm struggling to get my brain into 2020 mode on my videos.

No doubt by the time I'm used to 2020 it'll be 2021! 

Well, the 12z GFS seems a bit bonkers to me, but for what it's worth, it has my CET estimate at a very balmy 7.6*C as of 14th, still has it up at 7.3*C as of 21st, but then hammers it down to 6.1*C as of 27th

That's still some 1.5*C above the LTA though, which goes to show just how mild it's looking otherwise!

Here's a possible spanner in the works for a record-mild January.

It will depend on how much amplitude the MJO carries into phases 6 and 7, as these promote high pressure across the UK in positions that tend to become chilly at the surface - though only with much probability for phase 7, which is currently looking questionable.

If it only holds through phase 6, then high pressure may dominate but from too far south to bring low temperatures to the CET region.

 

Incidentally, propagation to phase 7 could also set up some interesting stratospheric events... provided enough of the MJO action is in the N. Hemisphere. I'm still haunted by last year's S. Hemisphere-skewed MJO in Jan-Feb and the resulting huge shortfall on cold UK weather (albeit not entirely fruitless).

Wow! Fascinating science SC. Keep us updated.

Met Ofice Hadley       7.3c       Anomaly     3.7c Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                   7.47c     Anomaly      3.31c

Netweather                7.91c     Anomaly      3.72c

Peasedown St John    8.2c     Anomaly      2.92c

Those seeking cold, snowy winters have been really unlucky in recent years in that there's always been at least one important driving force working against the required patterns establishing.

First it was the solar cycle, then some unhelpful ENSO events (the super Nino; when we benefit from weak to moderate, then a persistent Nina-like tendency even through the weak Nino ocean pattern of last winter) and this time around the big positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event and the QBO being a bit to slow to transition to the easterly phase from westerly. Looks to get there by mid-late Feb.

The +IOD has weakened a lot in the past fortnight, so who knows, maybe Feb will do something interesting - but only if we see the polar vortex weakened a great deal. No real sign of such in the current NWP modelling range; just the possible brief lower-vortex split... and even that isn't looking as pronounced now (GW should be feeling more comfortable today than yesterday!).

Next winter, we'll be very well placed in the solar cycle and have a fully easterly QBO. The ultimate combination of those two for supporting blocking patterns that bring cold, potentially snowy weather to Northwest Europe (usually with the UK near the edge, as we know all too well!).

So, who's betting that there will be an unhelpful La Nina event  - although that wouldn't necessarily stand in the way of some notably wintry weather Nov-Dec, as a La Nina can promote strong poleward mid-Atlantic ridges before an eastward shift in the favoured ridge location, to Europe, for Jan-Feb.

This last Nov-Dec, there was a Nina-like atmospheric tendency until nearly mid-Dec, but it was too weak to do more than nudge the jet northward in the mid-Atlantic and southward relative to the UK, bringing us cool to chilly conditions, with a lot of unsettled weather, but without temps even falling low enough for snow away from high ground in some northern parts.