A cooler interlude incoming, but not massively so, followed by a mild rally for the final day.
Perhaps not much overall change from where we are now, prior to adjustments from the provisional.
Had a sneaky look ahead to Feb. Signs of a sudden stratospheric warming to try and shake things up, but no strong indication of the type of event that's most likely to bring a big cold spell to NW Europe; the kind where two areas of warmth from different origin points join forces to 'pinch' the polar vortex in two.
Instead, a displacement with possible subsequent split is being indicated. We saw that last Jan-Feb and it didn't serve us much cold weather - just the one spell in the south that did, at least, bring some appreciable snowfall. It then helped set up that record-warm spell at the end of the month!
The 12z GFS begins extremely balmy for Feb 2020; CET of around 9.0*C for 1st-3rd which is over 5*C above the LTA to that point in the month. There are then some cool or chilly interludes but separated by more very mild spells, with the CET estimate only just out of the 7s *C as of 11th.
So even if we saw the right sort of SSW, it'd have a lot of work to do if that run is anywhere near the mark. Other modelling (ensemble & long-range) has generally supported the mild theme, even very mild.
Unless we see a big change in model signals in the next five days, it's going to be hard to go for anything other than above average again .
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2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb) Keep Calm and Forecast On