Met Office Hadley        7.4c         Anomaly         3.8c Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                     7.34c       Anomaly          3.19c

Netweather                  7.94c       Anomaly          3.75c

Peasedown St John     8.2c         Anomaly         2.92c.      

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Hmm - perhaps I spoke too soon; more emphasis on high pressure building right up across the UK in the model runs so far today.

While not especially cold aloft, overnight frosts and chilly days look possible. Something to keep an eye on - the 06z GFS actually puts slightly more of a dent in the CET than that wild 12z of 11th; rough estimate 5.9*C to 27th as opposed to 6.0*C.

Part of that is due to a colder mid-range; beforehand there was more of a westerly flow being retained across the UK. Still time for that to be the actual outcome, not yet time to rule out an exceptionally high CET.

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Hmm - perhaps I spoke too soon; more emphasis on high pressure building right up across the UK in the model runs so far today.

While not especially cold aloft, overnight frosts and chilly days look possible. Something to keep an eye on - the 06z GFS actually puts slightly more of a dent in the CET than that wild 12z of 11th; rough estimate 5.9*C to 27th as opposed to 6.0*C.

Part of that is due to a colder mid-range; beforehand there was more of a westerly flow being retained across the UK. Still time for that to be the actual outcome, not yet time to rule out an exceptionally high CET.

My logic! It’s bound to turn wintry from 22nd because I’m going on holiday!  It almost always does!  

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My logic! It’s bound to turn wintry from 22nd because I’m going on holiday!  It almost always does!  

 

Doesn't it normally turn wintry a day or two before you go away, then you're panicky about being able to get to the airport & fly?

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Doesn't it normally turn wintry a day or two before you go away, then you're panicky about being able to get to the airport & fly?

Yes!  You’re right it does turn wintry but it doesn’t usually snow until the day we have to drive to the airport!  I thought I was being clever in 2018 by booking for 1st March but what happened?  Beast from the East!  Then we got it again on our return 16 days later!    

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Hmm - perhaps I spoke too soon; more emphasis on high pressure building right up across the UK in the model runs so far today.

While not especially cold aloft, overnight frosts and chilly days look possible. Something to keep an eye on - the 06z GFS actually puts slightly more of a dent in the CET than that wild 12z of 11th; rough estimate 5.9*C to 27th as opposed to 6.0*C.

Part of that is due to a colder mid-range; beforehand there was more of a westerly flow being retained across the UK. Still time for that to be the actual outcome, not yet time to rule out an exceptionally high CET.

A sub 6c finish is entirely possible depending upon where and how long the high hangs around, plus the last week is obviously in the laps of the Gods.

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Met Office Hadley        7.3c       Anomaly      3.8c  Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                     7.30c     Anomaly       3.15c

Netweather                  7.88c     Anomaly       3.68c

Peasedown St John     8.2c       Anomaly       2.92c

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A sub 6c finish is entirely possible depending upon where and how long the high hangs around, plus the last week is obviously in the laps of the Gods.

The 12z GFS of yesterday dragged my CET estimate all the way down into the low 5s!

However, it was likely among the coldest possible outcomes, with the largest amount of continental flow. Today's runs so far have been far more maritime-dominated, struggling to even produce more than patchy overnight frosts.

So, it appears that anything from low 5s to low 8s is still plausible, with approx. low 6s to mid-7s being the 'probable' range.

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The 12z GFS of yesterday dragged my CET estimate all the way down into the low 5s!

However, it was likely among the coldest possible outcomes, with the largest amount of continental flow. Today's runs so far have been far more maritime-dominated, struggling to even produce more than patchy overnight frosts.

So, it appears that anything from low 5s to low 8s is still plausible, with approx. low 6s to mid-7s being the 'probable' range.

Ha!  I’ll bet you’re just saying that to make me feel better about my 5.2c guess!  

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My goodness - still over 7.0C

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Met Office Hadley        7.4c.     Anomaly     3.9c. Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                     7.41c      Anomaly      3.26c

Netweather                  7.95c    Anomaly      3.76c

Peasedown St John     8.3c      Anomaly      3.02c.   

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Met Office Hadley        7.4c      Anomaly      3.9c  provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                     7.33c    Anomaly      3.18c

Netweather                  7.91c    Anomaly      3.72c

Peasedown St John      8.2c     Anomaly       2.92c. 

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Ha!  I’ll bet you’re just saying that to make me feel better about my 5.2c guess!  

Rumbled .

No real change in prospects these past two days. Overall model signal is for the high to sit right across the UK until the later next week, then slip away to the southwest, perhaps to a transient cold northwesterly or northerly, after which the pattern looks to flatten out again.

We might finish the month where we began, pattern-wise. Yawn!

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This high pressure could prune a degree off the CET in the next week. By this time next week we could be sitting somewhere close to 6.4c.

The last week is uncertain...deep down I suspect most of us know which way it will go. 

Somewhere between 6.1 and 6.6 is my current end of month estimate...closer to 7 if we drag some long fetch long duration moisture laden SW'lies.

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Met Office Hadley       7.5c      Anomaly    3.9c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                    7.42c    Anomaly     3.27c

Netweather                 7.96c    Anomaly     3.77c

Peasedown St John     8.3c     Anomaly     3.02c.  

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BBC predicting -3 to -5*C minimums widely for both Fri-Sat and Sat-Sun, now that would really knock the CET on the head... could be a striking step-down, albeit not nearly as extreme as theoretically possible (imagine, for example, if we had a record-warm 1st half but then a 'Beast from the East'!).

 

A rough estimate using the GFS 06z gives a final CET of 6.4*C. 

Despite the BBC figures for the next two nights being 4-5*C lower, putting those in only drops the final estimate by 0.1*C, so not that much impact after all!

Each additional similarly cold night after that, out to the one into Thu 23rd, knocks just under 0.1*C off the final estimate. So it may be more significant should skies stay clear, with light winds, for at least a few days into next week.

 

Seems unlikely that the CET will fall far enough for my Jan 'prediction'. Looking back at it, I was a bit surprised for a moment at how low it was (5.67*C), before reminding myself that it's still over 1*C above the LTA.

Hammers home how extraordinarily mild this month has been so far.

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Met Office Hadley       7.5c      Anomaly    3.9c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                    7.42c    Anomaly     3.27c

Netweather                 7.96c    Anomaly     3.77c

Peasedown St John     8.3c     Anomaly     3.02c.  

I wonder where we'll be this time next week.

 

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I wonder where we'll be this time next week.

 

I’ll be on a ship cruising the Far East and slightly warmer than I am now!   
But I think the CET will be in the 6’s. 

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Met check displaying 7•24c this morning

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Met Office Hadley         7.4c       Anomaly     3.9c. Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                      7.20c     Anomaly     3.05c

Netweather                   7.87c     Anomaly     3.68c

Peasedown St John      8.1c     Anomaly      2.82c.

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