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Offline Gusty  
#941 Posted : 06 November 2019 19:40:26(UTC)
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A build in high pressure from the south to dry things up and warm things up would suit most of us here. A cool and wet outlook is not an exciting prospect. There are signs of something warmer in the form of outliers at the moment but far too far into FI to take seriously. :)


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Online Brian Gaze  
#942 Posted : 06 November 2019 19:52:57(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum Go to Quoted Post

Weather in a state of flux at the moment - let's hope Ventrice is right about this however:
 
 

 


He's a good pundit but I do hope we're not already having to roll the dice for an SSW.  

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Online doctormog  
#943 Posted : 06 November 2019 19:55:56(UTC)
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Ah the good old Siberia-Aleutian pattern. I wonder what Bering that will have on our weather....
Online Whether Idle  
#944 Posted : 06 November 2019 19:58:11(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post
Ah the good old Siberia-Aleutian pattern. I wonder what Bering that will have on our weather....


 its the way you tell them. 

The Johnson Government had a choice on whether to tackle the virus hard- or let it spread- they've shown they care more for their money than they do for the health and the safety of the British People.
Online doctormog  
#945 Posted : 06 November 2019 20:00:34(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post


 


 its the way you tell them. 




Online Heavy Weather 2013  
#946 Posted : 06 November 2019 20:21:47(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post


 


He's a good pundit but I do hope we're not already having to roll the dice for an SSW.  



Good god that was so painful at the end of last winter. Didn’t it start in December and we waited the whole of the winter for the results to propergate downwards to a square route of 0 😂

Mark
Stratford, London
Online idj20  
#947 Posted : 06 November 2019 20:33:10(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post


 


Good god that was so painful at the end of last winter. Didn’t it start in December and we waited the whole of the winter for the results to propergate downwards to a square route of 0 😂




We did get something out of it . . . in the form of exceptionally warm weather by late February. Wouldn't get that in a strong polar vortex induced mobile westerly airflow. 

Offline Bertwhistle  
#948 Posted : 06 November 2019 20:58:52(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post


A build in high pressure from the south to dry things up and warm things up would suit most of us here. A cool and wet outlook is not an exciting prospect. There are signs of something warmer in the form of outliers at the moment but far too far into FI to take seriously. :)


 



Yes but surely, Steve, by now warmers mean less dry most often. Other than an extending breezy Azores ridge or a Bartlett with enough flow to prevent fog, most places must expect either warm or dry?


 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
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Online doctormog  
#949 Posted : 06 November 2019 22:11:18(UTC)
doctormog

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More immediately the outlook (illustrated by the image below which is based solely on the 12z GFS op run) is a consistently colder than average one:



http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png 


 

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Offline ballamar  
#950 Posted : 07 November 2019 05:09:11(UTC)
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Another fascinating run with masses of blocking building in the right place if you are looking for cold. Think the longer term forecast wording will be changing very soon hinting at this potential scenario
Offline Gooner  
#951 Posted : 07 November 2019 06:41:53(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: ballamar Go to Quoted Post
Another fascinating run with masses of blocking building in the right place if you are looking for cold. Think the longer term forecast wording will be changing very soon hinting at this potential scenario


Indeed so much 'potential' but we say that most years eh?


 


But nice to see all the same 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
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Offline DEW  
#952 Posted : 07 November 2019 07:37:08(UTC)
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Briefly this morning:


GFS showing LPs to about the 17th then HP over Scandi with ridge to UK


ECM the same but the HP is at the very end of its run so not fully developed


GEFS consistent with this, cool this week with widespread rain, after that drier N&W, a few intermittent spikes in SE, temps recovering to average


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 shows the current blocking over E Europe nicely (I assume the pptn over Scandi is from the last of the depressions before the HP sets up)

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Online Heavy Weather 2013  
#953 Posted : 07 November 2019 10:32:00(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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06z GFS should raise a few eyebrows. Loaded with potential


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png


OK 850s are not dramatically cold, but its an interesting development nonetheless 

Mark
Stratford, London
Online Maunder Minimum  
#954 Posted : 07 November 2019 10:52:34(UTC)
Maunder Minimum

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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post


06z GFS should raise a few eyebrows. Loaded with potential


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png


OK 850s are not dramatically cold, but its an interesting development nonetheless 



Stunning chart - the sort of chart which gets rampers ramping. But we have been bitten by such charts all too often and it is so early in the season. A chart like that in December, would really excite.

New world order coming.
Offline Gooner  
#955 Posted : 07 November 2019 10:53:04(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post


06z GFS should raise a few eyebrows. Loaded with potential


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png


OK 850s are not dramatically cold, but its an interesting development nonetheless 



Agreed , nice to see all the same and drier 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
Online The Beast from the East  
#956 Posted : 07 November 2019 11:26:28(UTC)
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Gooner is back! All is well in the world! Lets hope this winter finally delivers Brexit snow


 

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Offline Gooner  
#957 Posted : 07 November 2019 13:12:50(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East Go to Quoted Post


Gooner is back! All is well in the world! Lets hope this winter finally delivers Brexit snow


 



Would have been sooner but had a few technical issues 


 


Some decent blocked charts around has to be said 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
Offline Rob K  
#958 Posted : 07 November 2019 13:25:04(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post




We did get something out of it . . . in the form of exceptionally warm weather by late February. Wouldn't get that in a strong polar vortex induced mobile westerly airflow. 



We also got some decent heavy snow right at the start of February - several inches here, heavy and wet enough to bring down lots of trees and block a lot of roads in this area. Whether it was SSW-related is debatable, of course.


 


But yes, last winter was painful in that the long-range forecasts (especially the Met Office ones) kept teasing us for about two months by saying a severe easterly spell was on the cards two weeks down the line, which never happened in the end.


 


Back to the current models and 06Z GFS would raise some eyebrows if we were another month or so into winter...


Edited by user 07 November 2019 13:31:23(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Online Heavy Weather 2013  
#959 Posted : 07 November 2019 16:29:23(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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This is starting to get interesting


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_213_1.png

Mark
Stratford, London
Offline Gooner  
#960 Posted : 07 November 2019 16:30:43(UTC)
Gooner

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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post


This is starting to get interesting


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_213_1.png



12z looking blocked indeed 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
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