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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 3,861  Location: Chelmsford Essex
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 3,861 Location: Chelmsford Essex
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Record under threat if 3 came off imo good heat pool 24 uppers gentle s/e wind France roasting at that time little disturbance . serious heat 35C London given usual correction factors not added on'
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 19/07/2011(UTC)
Posts: 586
Location: London E4
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Just another good day with the models, if you like summer weather. To be absolutely honest, posts from Ian Brown are just downright misleading. I have no idea why he does it. 30-35c widely Mon-Thu. 22-26c Fri-Mon is what the models show, in the SE quadrant at least. |
Chingford
London E4
147ft |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 3,861 Location: Chelmsford Essex
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Head to High Beach for some shade  Nice Place Originally Posted by: Downpour  Just another good day with the models, if you like summer weather. To be absolutely honest, posts from Ian Brown are just downright misleading. I have no idea why he does it. 30-35c widely Mon-Thu. 22-26c Fri-Mon is what the models show, in the SE quadrant at least.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 19/07/2011(UTC)
Posts: 586
Location: London E4
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Originally Posted by: Polar Low Head to High Beach for some shade Nice Place Beautiful place. Am up there most weekends mountain biking with my son. Back there Monday! |
Chingford
London E4
147ft |
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Rank: Guest
Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
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Some serious heat on offer for the SE crew now beginning of next week, thereafter a cool down to lower to mid 20’s. No sign of a prolonged hot spell as this summer ticks on by
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 2,429
Location: West Sussex
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Originally Posted by: Downpour Just another good day with the models, if you like summer weather. To be absolutely honest, posts from Ian Brown are just downright misleading. I have no idea why he does it. 30-35c widely Mon-Thu. 22-26c Fri-Mon is what the models show, in the SE quadrant at least. yep looking fantastic for the south generally. To be honest with Shroppers it’s best to ignore all posts as his only objective here is to wind anyone up with any remote interest in weather extremes. That’s it. No other reason. I cannot imagine anyone consistently trying to confuse and mislead against real output has a genuine interest in weather or model forecasting tools.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,083
Location: Brockley
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Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER Some serious heat on offer for the SE crew now beginning of next week, thereafter a cool down to lower to mid 20’s. No sign of a prolonged hot spell as this summer ticks on by Whilst there is some truth in that - nothing long lasting enough to count as prolonged so far - it’s actually pretty rare to get a “prolonged hot spell” if you mean a week or more of 28+ temperatures and at least 4 or 5 days of 30 in there. From recollection in my lifetime (I was born in 76) I think it’s happened 10 times: 1983, 1989, 1990, 1994(?), 1995, 1997, 2003, 2006, 2013, 2018. Roughly once every 4 years on average. Actually not dissimilar to the return period of a prolonged snowy spell of several days with snow on the ground in the South. |
Brockley, South East London 30m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC) Posts: 3,861 Location: Chelmsford Essex
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 22/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 19,068 Location: Sheffield, 133m ASL
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Originally Posted by: TimS Whilst there is some truth in that - nothing long lasting enough to count as prolonged so far - it’s actually pretty rare to get a “prolonged hot spell” if you mean a week or more of 28+ temperatures and at least 4 or 5 days of 30 in there. Yes you're living in the wrong country if you're expecting a prolonged hot spell every summer. Take the heat when it comes, as it is next week  We've had a number of very nice spells so far in spring and summer, some more anomalous than others  |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 23,118
Location: Northeast Hampshire
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Morning all. A quick glance at the GEFS shows that the cluster giving a prolonged hot spell has all but disappeared, however we still have a very potent blast of heat coming up in the next few days. :) |
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 17/10/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,141 Location: Staffordshire
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Models now in agreement on a cool and unsettled spell from late next week. |
From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 53,260
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Originally Posted by: Shropshire Models now in agreement on a cool and unsettled spell from late next week. The current unsettled spell has delivered 7.8mm of rain here. I'll be interested to see whether the next one is more productive. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,748 Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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Originally Posted by: Shropshire Models now in agreement on a cool and unsettled spell from late next week. Still a bit pessimistic, I see. I'd go with 'average' as a description for the next week or so, though GFS charts for early August (FI, I know) look really cool all the way across the Atlantic and into Scandinavia. For the level of heat forecast for next week, the breakdown, now looking most likely on Thursday, appears to be a relatively quiet affair with the hot air withdrawing gracefully eastwards -though BBC WftWA was hedging its bets, offering a second and less likely alternative model output of a significant heat low over Biscay of the sort which would really deliver thunderstorms |
It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 09/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,271 Location: Leeds
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Originally Posted by: Shropshire Models now in agreement on a cool and unsettled spell from late next week. Lol Ian come on. You got better for a while in the last couple of years stop it with the deliberate wind up comments. Temperatures return to normal or even slightly above e.g Always at least 20c here on the latest GFS run after the hot spell, typical summer weather. Yesterday was a cool and unsettled day here at 17c max and there are no days in the output as cool as that for here. ECM out up to 168hours , hardly cool and unsettled either. |
Tim
NW Leeds (1 mile east of LBA)
187m asl
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,491
Location: Bedworth Warwickshire
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Originally Posted by: Shropshire Models now in agreement on a cool and unsettled spell from late next week. That's slightly misleading as ECM shows pressure still relatively high across the southern uk and GFS for that matter has most of the cool unsettled weather towards the nw so probably weather will be in line with the met office update yesterday ie a nw/se split.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,083
Location: Brockley
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Well it was fun watching those extreme record model runs while they lasted. We seem to have some form of consensus now on duration and intensity. There’s no real theme or pattern for the week after the heatwave. Will be interesting to see what evolve, as it’s into the core school holiday period. Stays above average on the near continent. |
Brockley, South East London 30m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 17/10/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,141 Location: Staffordshire
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ECM brings the front across on Wednesday so cooler air into Western and Central areas earlier than the UKMO and GFS. |
From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,748 Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze The current unsettled spell has delivered 7.8mm of rain here. I'll be interested to see whether the next one is more productive. You must have been just too far NW for the heavy rain. Even Reading recorded 14mm to midnight, and there was a lot more further east and south after that. More figures in the July pptn and convection threads to support this. Edited by user 20 July 2019 07:14:36(UTC)
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It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805 |
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Rank: Administration
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 53,260
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ECM keeps it potentially hot in the south east out to 240. 
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Model Output Discussion 19/07/19 15:02 >>>>
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