My apologies for Steve. I know not what he speaks other than he appears to have had a little too much Christmas spirit. I mean if I really wanted to fill my boots I’d go back to pages 3 and 5 of this particular forum and old model threads where he has slated certain users (Ian) constantly and predicted December cold spells and snow. What was the one that time? “Did someone mention 1967?” Or some such. I may well have the year wrong, but anyway, I digress..
Bottom line is this is a forum for amateurs in the vain of Steve M, Tally, Beast, myself and countless others. The prementioned are also lucky to have expert analysis from the likes of Gavin P, Retron, Brian, CC and various others, and it’s this eclectic mix that makes this forum kind of unique. I don’t post as much as I used to, but still dip in time to time
Hope everyone had a good Xmas day. Happy new year and a majorly split PV to all of you.
Thanks for the reply - I dont really post here much any more either, theres good posters but seemingly more that dont really want to move the discussion on, hence why there is no commentary from me- but just for you...
Overnight euros good with my favourite the UKMO at a different party to the GFS
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 144
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ 168 Cold air into the UK
The models are responding to the strats total change in modality going through a deceleration of the zonal wind spanning about 15 days ( were about halfway through ) from + 30M/S to ~ about -10M/S ( The ECM Emax was -6.3 M/S at day 9 yesterday & the hit & miss GFS was -6.04 from the 00z )
In this scenrio the problem with the GFS is its vertical resoltion V the ECM ( its not a high top model ) so all tye while the ECM has been seeing a split vortex the GFS just sees a blob of deceleration & warmth into the pole- so you just get a displacement of the vortex.
The GFS has been about 2 days behind the euros with the protracted QTR - which is now appearing at day 6 & 7 in the Euros, the deceleration of the strat is will quickly burrow downwards & impact the troposhere usually with a 1 or 2 wave pattern under 10 days. If you are lucky enough to be on the eastern side of the block you get cold very quick.
The 'split' locale will encourage an atlantic block because the 2 vortex lobes seperate East towards europe & West towards Canada -
The euros are now quickly moving to this scenario as the reversal downwells - Because the GFS has a weaker split signature then 'as yet' its response is muted- So all the people who blindly follow the GFS ( like Ian for example ) will be posting zonal charts etc for a day or so to come - but there will come a point ~ 24-36 hours time where even that model will slow the westerlies up.
I predict the inital wave of deep cold hits europe hard in ~ 6-7 days with masses of snow - The UK will be on the western periphery but could catch some- Its thereafter as the pattern slows things should continue to get better-
S