Don’t react Marcus. He’ll be back when the snow starts to fall. Strat. charts have improved this morning. MJO racing through phase 6 (phase 7/8 promotes Atlantic sector HLB) and EC46 although not so good weeks 5 on it wobbles more than CFS on a blancmange 

🎄👍

This..... 👍🏻

No point in considering the latter reaches of GFS according to some. Although to be fair there might be the odd balloon missing this morning 😉
Happy Christmas to TWO - big things are around the corner (and I don’t mean the size of my mince pie induced paunch) 😂

 

I was thinking that the 00z this morning will be the last for 24-48 hours not to be affected by a shortfall in amounts of data.

I'm sure the charts will look better this evening after an enjoyable day of good food, alcohol and good company.

 

ECM 00z ensemble suite looks to be keeping the high to our south: the cold cluster has weakened and average temperatures look favourite at the moment.

Usual caveat applies - the ensembles only test the stability of the starting position; unknowns remain unknowns.

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No comments on the GFS 6z then?

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Last FI chart OK otherwise very average.

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Not even lack of data can save us at the moment. All very boring. zzzz

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An absolutely horrendous 12z. This is not looking great at all.

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IMO the models are probably going to be in a state of some flux wrt the longer term until such times as they have figured out the effects of the SSW on the prevailing pattern. Those who followed the model output closely back in February will no doubt remember how much chopping and changing there was among the models we can see until they eventually all came round to agreeing on the likely outcome. I feel it will probably be the same this time around.

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An absolutely horrendous 12z. This is not looking great at all.

It's one run Kieren, emphasis on "one run".

Also see my above post.

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It's one run Kieren, emphasis on "one run".

Also see my above post.

True David. But this is the worst GFS for a considerable time. Absolutely horrific.

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True David. But this is the worst GFS for a considerable time. Absolutely horrific.

How? It's consistently showing blocking over or just to our south, bringing mostly calm and rather cool conditions to most of England and Wales, away from the far west and north.

The latter stages are showing a signal for the block to pull away and bring a change from the north-west although that's too far out and uncertain at this stage.

The models are also echoing the Met Office forecasts which predicted settled weather for the south into the New Year.

 

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True David. But this is the worst GFS for a considerable time. Absolutely horrific.

I don't disagree about that at all. That said, that is precisely why I made my earlier comment about the models being in something of a state of flux at the moment and likely will be until they get to grips properly with the SSW and how it ultimately plays out in terms of synoptics.

It was the same back in February. We had a few very poor operational runs from some of the models during the early to middle part of that month, and whenever we got a poor GFS or ECM op run there were some people here saying "It's all over for cold". We all know what ended up happening eventually. Not saying there will definitely be an action replay of late February this winter, but as long as the MetO (for instance) continue to think things will change during January then I will continue to keep the faith, even if no-one else does.

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Merry Christmas to all model watchers. 🍺🍺🍺 2018-19 certainly has the potential to be one of the modest winters on record given the turbo boost that December has delivered. Looking like a mild finish to December. The monthly CET could be sitting around 7c come December 31st. 🧐

🤡💩🍖🐸🤪👹🤖😾🧠👳‍♂️🧕🏿👅🎅🏿👼🏼💅🏻👯‍♂️👙🐔🐽🕸🐌

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Poor GFS and ensembles - that post day 9 sinker gaining ground.

 

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Poor GFS and ensembles - that post day 9 sinker gaining ground.

 

Yes, groundhog day continues.

We will probably get a cold snap at some point but this is not going to be a classic winter as some were predicting

 

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Morning all, really grim this morning if it’s cold your after. Should be dry though, hopefully with a little sunshine if we are lucky.
Time to leave model watching for a while, this is about as dire as it can get.
Happy Christmas everyone

Wow. Shall we all just flip ourselves now? I’d say there’s strong propensity for jolly good fun in model watching over the next few days or even weeks. 

Nothing to do with your lack of data though 😉

Be so funny if the ECM came off !! Fab 240 chart with easterly poised😀👍🏻
Martin

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Poor GFS and ensembles - that post day 9 sinker gaining ground.

 

Just the one model though.

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Indeed ECM keeps hopes alive with WAA into Greenland and ridging the high north coupled with some half-decent cold air to the east.

Would it? 

We'll probably never know as it'll likely be gone on the next run.

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Poor GFS and ensembles - that post day 9 sinker gaining ground.

 

I see your still here posting total inaccurate statements-

GFS 12z 180 Mean is more amplified than the 06z mean - now adding some weight into the ECM.

 

 

 

 

Yes, groundhog day continues.

We will probably get a cold snap at some point but this is not going to be a classic winter as some were predicting

 

 

I don’t think anyone has been predicting a classic winter have they? As I said a few days ago, it’s pointless looking at the models until around new year, when the effects (if any) of the SSW might have started to make themselves felt. Until then it’s all going to be dross. 

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