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The latest ECM 32 is suggesting:
January Week 1: Milder than average conditions favoured in the north
Week 2: Colder than average conditions favoured in all of the UK
Week 3: No temperature anomaly in the vast majority of the UK
GEFS 06z is looking a lot more interesting for cold weather too.
06Z P20 is worth a look for entertainment value before it disappears: Scandi high retrogresses to Greenland leading to bitter nor-easterly flow with snow in the east and ice days for inland areas over almost the whole country.
Nice!
The models are strugling for find a path for the potential bolocking pattern, but first there must be some heat flux up from the troposphere to the stratosphere...
😂
I’ll be the one getting a blocking if the SSW doesn’t deliver
Short term pain for long term gain.I don’t expect to see too many cold/Easterly options appearing late in the GEFS until Monday (ie. a week after the reversal which is expected around 1st Jan.In the meantime it’s a long period of quiet anticyclonic weather from Xmas Eve to get through.
I have always taken the views that if there isn't any snow at Christmas, then quiet, anticyclonic and even frosty weather is a good enough substitute for me. Anything is better than wind and rain as far as I'm concerned!
😂 I’ll be the one getting a blocking if the SSW doesn’t deliver
and deserved although you will be correct in my opinion
Absolutely David. A crisp cold day is just fine; maybe a little mist or fog lingering into the afternoon.
As you say, just not mild greyness please.
ZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!!!!!
Well go to sleep then and not post in here
The outlook is about as boring as you can get but luckily we have an SSW and hopefully a split Strat vortex so excitement should increase in a couple of weeks.
Until then lots of dry weather which is no bad thing.
Perhaps it's our warmer world, but the jet seems to get itself in ruts, and it's northerly buckling pattern seems to get itself locked in for a couple of weeks. Seems it needs something Stratospheric (SSW event will do nicely) to shift its derrière and go for a swim off the coast of Portugal preferably. Never seems to get in the right rut though for us coldies - a nice little replay of 1987 but lasting about twice the length would do nicely thank you. Are you listening Santa - Baby?
I assume you meant "blocking"?
Some model related info:The recent trend for EC to pull heights further North D8 on is reflected in this morning’s DeBilts which now have a clear colder cluster appearing.http://projects.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/pluim_06260_0_00_60.pngIf we can get the Xmas high to extend North later next week it might set us up for when the real tug from the troph response arrives.Not quite sure how this fits in with the UKM outlook of a spell of unsettled before the Easterly but we’ll see.
It looks like it's just itching to do that on the day 10 chart, which would fit in with what that temperature graph is showing for De Bilt in the new Year.
It looks like the ECM/EPS shows a warm/cloudy high rather than a nice, frosty clear one for our neck of the woods.
The UK ensembles (a reminder, they're here: https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperatur850 ) just show near-normal temperatures. It's only by day 14 that there's as much as a 10% chance of -5C 850s... and the T2Ms are most unimpressive too.
Still nothing terribly exciting to see down here, but at least things are happening up in the stratosphere. And, of course, it could be worse: at least the forecast is for benign weather rather than a stormfest.