Model output is as dull as dishwater at the moment - the best one can say about it is that at least it will be mostly dry during the Christmas holidays.

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Dull as dishwater......and that's after the Christmas pots and pans have been through it...😶

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Finally GFS delivers some eye candy in the new year. This is a plausible outcome but very much out in deep FI at the moment.
Still, at least we finally have some straws to clutch at post-Christmas.

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Model output is as dull as dishwater at the moment - the best one can say about it is that at least it will be mostly dry during the Christmas holidays.

Yep pretty dull

A significant SSW with much to discuss with respect the potential effects, a very bullish UKM extended into January and let's see:- -14C uppers flooding the UK on 4th Jan in the latest GFS OP with heavy snow.
I'll take that sort of dull over most years TBH :)

 

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Yep pretty dull

A significant SSW with much to discuss with respect the potential effects, a very bullish UKM extended into January and let's see:- -14C uppers flooding the UK on 4th Jan in the latest GFS OP with heavy snow.
I'll take that sort of dull over most years TBH :)

 

New year, new weather?

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Who says Northerlies are always mild and tame these days

Nice to see a bit of interest in the GFS - shows what can happen if the HP sits around until conditions are more favourable to suck it North.

Before then drying out with temps TBA depending on how clear the HP is, where it sits, any initial shot of cooler air etc.

Longer term it'd be nice to see a few more of the ens going with some colder solutions, rather than the odd one or two.

Edit: Hmmm, not without support in the ens too. There's quite a lot of members going with HP relocating North.

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06z is interesting. Quite a few members pulling the Hugh towards Greenland.

New Year’s Day onwards is when the interest starts. IMHO, this is getting quite exciting now.

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The ECM 00z ensemble for London has a little more of interest for cold weather seekers.

In the short term we finally have some clarity on events on Xmas Eve and Xmas Day, with the high pressure bringing a brief but sharp drop in temperature; not especially cold but pleasantly seasonal, I think.

Beyond Day 10 the dominant cluster delivers daytime maxima around 4-5c and overnight frosts. There's a clear trend away from mild outcomes as we enter 2019.

 

As for the 06z, classic retrogression and a decent northerly. 

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Interesting!

Maybe yesterday's 06Z P20 was on the money.

Except in this morning's 06z Op the high doesn't waste time going via Scandi, it goes straight for Greenland - but stumbles a bit on the way.

Anyway, MO watching isn't dull at the moment, even if the weather over the next few days might be.

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I assume you meant "blocking"?

 

Yup David 

Neil I'll be blocked to ...but  if 1987 could be on the table. Snowed during the morning in Porto.

After the 26th the models will begin to pick up the trend. 

I hope

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Hopefully we will soon be in a position for Retron to start his -10 watch.

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Think it's the first time I've seen the London snowrow reach 7 at day 16. 

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Eyes down for the 12z. Hopefully we will see the models strengthen the idea of northern block. The ensembles certainly highlight the fact something is brewing.

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Remember the models could still be reeling from lack of data due to recent drone activity, still playing catch up 😉

Remember the models could still be reeling from lack of data due to recent drone activity, still playing catch up 😉

Ah, one day you'll realise that yes, models do lose data over Christmas and no, it's not really worth making sarky comments about.

(The loss of aircraft data will, as usual, start later on Christmas Eve and continue through to Boxing Day. It will lead to lower accuracy in the models, but with an SSW on the way accuracy isn't going to be high to start with!)

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Ah, one day you'll realise that yes, models do lose data over Christmas and no, it's not really worth making sarky comments about.

(The loss of aircraft data will, as usual, start later on Christmas Eve and continue through to Boxing Day. It will lead to lower accuracy in the models, but with an SSW on the way accuracy isn't going to be high to start with!)

We have this debate every year - and there can’t be a debate about data depletion (roughly 20K datapoints compared to 35K on normal days). The depreciation on accuracy however is debatable - I’m not convinced it has much effect on the 5-7day range given it’s only around 80% on the verification stats anyway.

What’s your feeling about the SSW and the speed of downwelling Darren?

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We have this debate every year - and there can’t be a debate about data depletion (roughly 20K datapoints compared to 35K on normal days). The depreciation on accuracy however is debatable - I’m not convinced it has much effect on the 5-7day range given it’s only around 80% on the verification stats anyway.

We do indeed. It usually leads to a visible dip in the accuracy stats here, has done for years. Anyone wishing to claim it doesn't is, of course, entitled to do their own research and post it. Having already done that in previous years, I won't be doing it again this year (although I will be keeping an eye on the stats anyway!)

What’s your feeling about the SSW and the speed of downwelling Darren?

Any effects look to be pretty slow to work their way down this time, compared with the one we had in February. You can see it gradually downwelling on the ECM charts here:

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

As such, I'd agree with those who aren't expecting much before the middle third of January, although I reckon there will be more in the way of noteworthy blocking runs showing up by this time next week (I'll be ignoring blocking that shows up on Christmas and Boxing Day, as the lack of data seems to have odd effects with regards to blocking on the outputs - again, something I've noted over the past 20 years or so!)

 

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We do indeed. It usually leads to a visible dip in the accuracy stats here, has done for years. Anyone wishing to claim it doesn't is, of course, entitled to do their own research and post it. Having already done that in previous years, I won't be doing it again this year (although I will be keeping an eye on the stats anyway!)

 

Any effects look to be pretty slow to work their way down this time, compared with the one we had in February. You can see it gradually downwelling on the ECM charts here:

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

As such, I'd agree with those who aren't expecting much before the middle third of January, although I reckon there will be more in the way of noteworthy blocking runs showing up by this time next week (I'll be ignoring blocking that shows up on Christmas and Boxing Day, as the lack of data seems to have odd effects with regards to blocking on the outputs - again, something I've noted over the past 20 years or so!)

 

as ever a voice of reason though I’m afraid some posters just won’t listen. I suppose everyone has their own opinions, even if they are clearly wrong. 

Not quite on the 12z Op although we still manage to drag some -10 850s over a fair bit of the country for a short while, with snow for some.

The High then topples/retreats on this run and a lobe of PV sits somewhat further south than normal over Iceland. The jet's a fair way south at that point, which leaves it open for colder air to make its way back (although the air over Scotland is already cool enough for some hill snow).

Again, be interesting to see what the ens make of things.

 

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did we see a SSW last winter when we had 3 beast from east at the back end of winter Scotland/north copping the worse of it now talk of another where The SSW has begun over Russia and will not strengthen before moving into the North Pole over Christmas... then ????

hopefully we will see a nice prolonged beast in the new year.