An interesting evaluation from the forecasters in the US today

Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
A blend of the non-06z/non-12z GFS guidance (00z/12z ECMWF,
00z/12z Canadian, and 00z/12z UKMET with the 00z/06z/12z GFS
parallel/FV3 as reasonable alternatives) sufficed given the good
overall agreement with the systems moving through the West and
downstream eastern ridge which maintained good continuity from the
previous shift. This accounts for the operational GFS's recent
fortnight of inconsistency with systems moving across the north
Pacific. With time, 00z ECMWF and 00z bias-corrected NAEFS
ensemble means were included into the pressures/500 hPa height
preference mix.

It may be the North Pacific but that must impact the pattern downstream.

 

 

I don’t think anyone has been predicting a classic winter have they? As I said a few days ago, it’s pointless looking at the models until around new year, when the effects (if any) of the SSW might have started to make themselves felt. Until then it’s all going to be dross. 

Every winter somone seems to predict a classic.

Of course we're not a third of the way through yet; still plenty of time for a month or more of severe weather, particularly if the SSW roulette wheel stops in the right place.

 

Every winter somone seems to predict a classic.

Of course we're not a third of the way through yet; still plenty of time for a month or more of severe weather, particularly if the SSW roulette wheel stops in the right place.

Has anyone mentioned 1947?

 

 

I don’t think anyone has been predicting a classic winter have they? As I said a few days ago, it’s pointless looking at the models until around new year, when the effects (if any) of the SSW might have started to make themselves felt. Until then it’s all going to be dross. 

moomin did.. 

 

 

Has anyone mentioned 1947?

I was tempted, trust me.

 

I see your still here posting total inaccurate statements-

GFS 12z 180 Mean is more amplified than the 06z mean - now adding some weight into the ECM.

 

 

 

Really? I would encourage members to go back through your model output posts in the last few threads since the end of November and beginning of December. 

Anyway, merry Christmas all. Loving this mild weather currently. Make the most of it whilst it lasts I guess. It would take sometime monumental for it to last the rest of the winter. 

 

 

Really? I would encourage members to go back through your model output posts in the last few threads since the end of November and beginning of December. 

 

Anyway, merry Christmas all. Loving this mild weather currently. Make the most of it whilst it lasts I guess. It would take sometime monumental for it to last the rest of the winter. 

Merry Christmas Matty. Season of goodwill to all men... 

It’s been cold here today but a nice day nonetheless.

Certainly nothing exceptional in the next 7-10 days based on current output.

True David. But this is the worst GFS for a considerable time. Absolutely horrific.

Couldn't agree more the GFS Op is getting worse and worse each run!! clearly hasn't yet picked up on the SSW YET!?

 

Merry Christmas Matty. Season of goodwill to all men... 

It’s been cold here today but a nice day nonetheless.

Certainly nothing exceptional in the next 7-10 days based on current output.

Merry Christmas to yourself GTW. 

Indeed. The great unknown now is the projected (already underway, warming of the strat), and it’s effects here at the surface. I’ve absolutely no idea whether that’ll be cold, mild or everything in between. Neither do the experts I guess. 

At the very least it’s not a zonal train of crap. Much as I prefer the milder weather, I can’t stand endless wet and windy cack. 

 

moomin did.. 

I haven't predicted a full on classic winter. I still think January will end up being a classic month....but not sure about a classic winter owing to the very mild December we are enduring. 😊🤞

 

 

Couldn't agree more the GFS Op is getting worse and worse each run!! clearly hasn't yet picked up on the SSW YET!?

Tally, I think you should go back and have a read of the posts by GTW and Neil from earlier in this thread (yesterday, I think). Both Gandalf and Neil explained in their posts that there is always a time lag of at least a couple of weeks between the warming taking place in the stratosphere and the effects of that filtering down to the troposhere and thus potentially have an effect on synoptics. There was a time lag of a couple of weeks back in February between the SSW taking place that month and it having an effect on our weather. I'm afraid that anyone expecting the GFS or any other model to start picking up on the current warming at this moment in time is, IMHO, expecting too much and too soon.

 

 

Really? I would encourage members to go back through your model output posts in the last few threads since the end of November and beginning of December. 

 

Anyway, merry Christmas all. Loving this mild weather currently. Make the most of it whilst it lasts I guess. It would take sometime monumental for it to last the rest of the winter. 

Fill your boots then ?

Perhaps you could quote a few incorrect ones-?

Maybe the day it belting it down with snow here when pretty much all the forum was going with the GFS blasting the cold all the way to central Europe 5 days before inc Ian who suddenly went awol

Or the classic tweet from MH that literally back fired the next day.

But anyway - It doesnt matter to me what you think, I am actually the one who posts & comments on what the models are saying & what may occur not some bullsh*it nonsence for the sake of it.

& I PS Im not the one who actually rejoined & paraded as a woman to post the same bullsh*it again..

 

Fill your boots then ?

Perhaps you could quote a few incorrect ones-?

Maybe the day it belting it down with snow here when pretty much all the forum was going with the GFS blasting the cold all the way to central Europe 5 days before inc Ian who suddenly went awol

Or the classic tweet from MH that literally back fired the next day.

But anyway - It doesnt matter to me what you think, I am actually the one who posts & comments on what the models are saying & what may occur not some bullsh*it nonsence for the sake of it.

& I PS Im not the one who actually rejoined & paraded as a woman to post the same bullsh*it again..

Steve, it's Christmas, can't you park this for today at least?

Also, you know very well that there are a number of contributors here who are perfectly capable of reading the charts so please don't tar everyone with the same brush.

Moomin predicted a mild POSSIBLY VERY MILD December and a classic January and a cold first half of February.

I haven't predicted a full on classic winter. I still think January will end up being a classic month....but not sure about a classic winter owing to the very mild December we are enduring. 😊🤞

No you predicted a severe cold January and as you have added a cold first half of Feb to. 

Wow. Shall we all just flip ourselves now? I’d say there’s strong propensity for jolly good fun in model watching over the next few days or even weeks. 

Nothing to do with your lack of data though 😉

You know you may be right. Perhaps we should completely ignore qualitative evaluation and research methods, DCF guidance and actually, while we are at it, why don’t we just completely discount ship and plane observations all together? After all, I think it’s only rule number 1 of the law of the steps of scientific method that suggests we should “make an observation or observations“.
I much prefer your thought process or lack thereof, I’m sure Lewis Fry Richardson had your methodology in mind when in 1922 he organised the first numerical weather prediction experiment. Or perhaps not .....🙄

 

No you predicted a severe cold January and as you have added a cold first half of Feb to. 

Time will tell won’t it? I think a classic January = A severe January.

I still think there will be a sudden and dramatic shift in the models and January will end up being a classic (severe)....possibly tempered by a quiet first week.

 

Steve, it's Christmas, can't you park this for today at least?

Also, you know very well that there are a number of contributors here who are perfectly capable of reading the charts so please don't tar everyone with the same brush.

Yes mate

maybe that was a bit broadbrush-

GFS FV3 almost on the same page as ECM @168

So what I said then 😊😊

Time will tell won’t it? I think a classic January = A severe January.

I still think there will be a sudden and dramatic shift in the models and January will end up being a classic (severe)....possibly tempered by a quiet first week.

we shall see but I for one don't expect anything spectacular this coming January - a week or so of colder weather is possible but nothing extreme on a national or regional level... perhaps the odd 'local' extreme might occur. Overall I expect this month to nearer average temperature wise, and average to a little below rain wise.

ECM 15dayer has been fairly consistent in showing a fairly dramatic drop in pressure values over Europe from around Jan 6th. General flow is westerly but there is a general cooling from the N/NW.