The Weather Outlook

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moomin75
25 December 2018 23:46:25

 

we shall see but I for one don't expect anything spectacular this coming January - a week or so of colder weather is possible but nothing extreme on a national or regional level... perhaps the odd 'local' extreme might occur. Overall I expect this month to nearer average temperature wise, and average to a little below rain wise.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Well let’s keep everything crossed and hope for the best. Hope you’ve had a good Christmas Day. As you will see from my tone this winter, I am determined to stay a lot more grounded and not p**s everyone off any more....you were one of the people who I think I have annoyed more than most in the past, but I am a changed man. Staying as grounded as possible now and will definitely not post any of the stupid historionics of previous winters. 😊 Enjoy the rest of Christmas my friend.....And to everyone else who have been getting antagonised, keep the faith, stay friendly, and let’s make sure we keep this forum much more friendly and down to earth than “the other place” and that includes the rivalry between Steve Murr and Ian Brown, both of whom I have much respect for. I don’t think either need to feel hounded out of here....they just interpret the charts from different angles, but both make some good input here and neither should be ridiculed. I think, deep down, they both want the same thing, but Ian is perhaps a little more pragmatic whereas Steve, who produces some outstanding analysis goes full on winter when he sees a sniff of something interesting.

The great thing about this forum over the last few years is that there has been a good deal of tolerance and grounded analysis, rather than wildly flailing at every twist and turn. Long may this continue. Happy Christmas everyone.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

picturesareme
25 December 2018 23:50:50

Well let’s keep everything crossed and hope for the best. Hope you’ve had a good Christmas Day. As you will see from my tone this winter, I am determined to stay a lot more grounded and not p**s everyone off any more....you were one of the people who I think I have annoyed more than most in the past, but I am a changed man. Staying as grounded as possible now and will definitely not post any of the stupid historionics of previous winters. 😊 Enjoy the rest of Christmas my friend.....And to everyone else who have been getting antagonised, keep the faith, stay friendly, and let’s make sure we keep this forum much more friendly and down to earth than “the other place” and that includes the rivalry between Steve Murr and Ian Brown, both of whom I have much respect for. I don’t think either need to feel hounded out of here....they just interpret the charts from different angles, but both make some good input here and neither should be ridiculed. I think, deep down, they both want the same thing, but Ian is perhaps a little more pragmatic whereas Steve, who produces some outstanding analysis goes full on winter when he sees a sniff of something interesting.

The great thing about this forum over the last few years is that there has been a good deal of tolerance and grounded analysis, rather than wildly flailing at every twist and turn. Long may this continue. Happy Christmas everyone.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

🙌✌❤

fairweather
25 December 2018 23:51:38

There is one thing that can be reliably forecast. If it's Christmas and there is a prolonged mild outlook  the usual suspects will start bitching at each other. Happy Christmas one and all 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
White Meadows
25 December 2018 23:58:02

 

You know you may be right. Perhaps we should completely ignore qualitative evaluation and research methods, DCF guidance and actually, while we are at it, why don’t we just completely discount ship and plane observations all together? After all, I think it’s only rule number 1 of the law of the steps of scientific method that suggests we should “make an observation or observations“.
I much prefer your thought process or lack thereof, I’m sure Lewis Fry Richardson had your methodology in mind when in 1922 he organised the first numerical weather prediction experiment. Or perhaps not .....🙄

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

It’s all so easy to jump on the back of others posts. Back in the real world, the infamous ‘lack of data’ theory has failed to deliver the Christmas candy charts. Or perhaps we should wait for the 00z?

White Meadows
26 December 2018 00:07:23
A vile westerly dominated 18z Christmas pub run tonight:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_240_1.png 

Gandalf The White
26 December 2018 00:10:11

It’s all so easy to jump on the back of others posts. Back in the real world, the infamous ‘lack of data’ theory has failed to deliver the Christmas candy charts. Or perhaps we should wait for the 00z?

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Lack of data is a fact.

Lack of data doesn't guarantee inaccurate model output but it is undeniable that reduced amounts of data must increase the risk of inaccuracy.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



picturesareme
26 December 2018 00:14:56

It’s all so easy to jump on the back of others posts. Back in the real world, the infamous ‘lack of data’ theory has failed to deliver the Christmas candy charts. Or perhaps we should wait for the 00z?

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

The lack of data could be the reason it's showing mild ;) 

White Meadows
26 December 2018 00:18:34

 

Lack of data is a fact.

Lack of data doesn't guarantee inaccurate model output but it is undeniable that reduced amounts of data must increase the risk of inaccuracy.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

again, I’m afraid it’s hasnt / isn’t living up to the hype of ‘Stella’ charts or giving moments of crystal ball clarity, or helping us in any shape or form. Basically its an immeasurable idea that cannot be realised or given credence. A tiny blip that counts for nothing in the meteorological world of forecasting. 

Gandalf The White
26 December 2018 00:19:25

A vile westerly dominated 18z Christmas pub run tonight:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_240_1.png

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Yet 24 hours earlier there's high pressure dominating much of England and 24 hours later we're into cool Pm air.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gandalf The White
26 December 2018 00:22:03

again, I’m afraid it’s hasnt / isn’t living up to the hype of ‘Stella’ charts or giving moments of crystal ball clarity, or helping us in any shape or form. Basically its an immeasurable idea that cannot be realised or given credence. A tiny blip that counts for nothing in the meteorological world of forecasting. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Nobody has ever said that 'stellar charts' were guaranteed.

As I said, it is a fact that the level of uncertainty must increase. But an increased level of uncertainty doesn't mean the charts will be wrong.

You are free to disagree but that doesn't alter the facts.  

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



tallyho_83
26 December 2018 00:34:32
What's this about lack of data? in what way?
Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Gandalf The White
26 December 2018 01:04:24

What's this about lack of data? in what way?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

A sizeable amount of data that is fed into the models comes from commercial aircraft. On Christmas Day there are significantly fewer flights and therefore less data.

It’s particularly data from higher levels in the atmosphere where aircraft tend to fly.

It’s a temporary issue - flights pick up again on Boxing Day and are back to normal by 27th.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



tallyho_83
26 December 2018 01:07:11

 

A sizeable amount of data that is fed into the models comes from commercial aircraft. On Christmas Day there are significantly fewer flights and therefore less data.

It’s particularly data from higher levels in the atmosphere where aircraft tend to fly.

It’s a temporary issue - flights pick up again on Boxing Day and are back to normal by 27th.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Never knew that was the case but thanks!

So some eye candy /blocked or cold wintry charts and GFS model runs will start appearing from 27th? 

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Matty H
26 December 2018 01:19:16

 

Fill your boots then ?

Perhaps you could quote a few incorrect ones-?

Maybe the day it belting it down with snow here when pretty much all the forum was going with the GFS blasting the cold all the way to central Europe 5 days before inc Ian who suddenly went awol

Or the classic tweet from MH that literally back fired the next day.

But anyway - It doesnt matter to me what you think, I am actually the one who posts & comments on what the models are saying & what may occur not some bullsh*it nonsence for the sake of it.

& I PS Im not the one who actually rejoined & paraded as a woman to post the same bullsh*it again..

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

My apologies for Steve. I know not what he speaks other than he appears to have had a little too much Christmas spirit. I mean if I really wanted to fill my boots I’d go back to pages 3 and 5 of this particular forum and old model threads where he has slated certain users (Ian) constantly and predicted December cold spells and snow. What was the one that time? “Did someone mention 1967?” Or some such. I may well have the year wrong, but anyway, I digress..

Bottom line is this is a forum for amateurs in the vain of Steve M, Tally, Beast, myself and countless others. The prementioned are also lucky to have expert analysis from the likes of Gavin P, Retron, Brian, CC and various others, and it’s this eclectic mix that makes this forum kind of unique. I don’t post as much as I used to, but still dip in time to time

Hope everyone had a good Xmas day. Happy new year and a majorly split PV to all of you. 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

JACKO4EVER
26 December 2018 05:54:37

It’s all so easy to jump on the back of others posts. Back in the real world, the infamous ‘lack of data’ theory has failed to deliver the Christmas candy charts. Or perhaps we should wait for the 00z?

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

who has ever said lack of data will deliver Christmas candy charts? All it does is raise the level of uncertainty- it could be uncertainly mild or cold or something in between- I don’t understand why you can’t grasp that? Best thing to do is just put this to bed and we will agree to disagree, it’s only model output discussion after all.

Surrey John
26 December 2018 07:35:30

Has anyone mentioned 1947?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

Sorry not old enough to have been born then, so no way I can remember it

 

Maybe more like a 1985 or 1986 winter (I forget which) is shaping up

 

 

Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire

35m ASL

Steve Murr
26 December 2018 08:08:11

 

My apologies for Steve. I know not what he speaks other than he appears to have had a little too much Christmas spirit. I mean if I really wanted to fill my boots I’d go back to pages 3 and 5 of this particular forum and old model threads where he has slated certain users (Ian) constantly and predicted December cold spells and snow. What was the one that time? “Did someone mention 1967?” Or some such. I may well have the year wrong, but anyway, I digress..

Bottom line is this is a forum for amateurs in the vain of Steve M, Tally, Beast, myself and countless others. The prementioned are also lucky to have expert analysis from the likes of Gavin P, Retron, Brian, CC and various others, and it’s this eclectic mix that makes this forum kind of unique. I don’t post as much as I used to, but still dip in time to time

Hope everyone had a good Xmas day. Happy new year and a majorly split PV to all of you. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Thanks for the reply - I dont really post here much any more either, theres good posters but seemingly more that dont really want to move the discussion on, hence why there is no commentary from me- but just for you...

Overnight euros good with my favourite the UKMO at a different party to the GFS

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0  144

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/  168 Cold air into the UK

The models are responding to the strats total change in modality going through a deceleration of the zonal wind spanning about 15 days ( were about halfway through ) from + 30M/S to ~ about -10M/S ( The ECM Emax was -6.3 M/S at day 9 yesterday & the hit & miss GFS was -6.04 from the 00z )

In this scenrio the problem with the GFS is its vertical resoltion V the ECM ( its not a high top model ) so all tye while the ECM has been seeing a split vortex the GFS just sees a blob of deceleration & warmth into the pole- so you just get a displacement of the vortex.

The GFS has been about 2 days behind the euros with the protracted QTR - which is now appearing at day 6 & 7 in the Euros, the deceleration of the strat is will quickly burrow downwards & impact the troposhere usually with a 1 or 2 wave pattern under 10 days. If you are lucky enough to be on the eastern side of the block you get cold very quick.

The 'split' locale will encourage an atlantic block because the 2 vortex lobes seperate East towards europe & West towards Canada -

The euros are now quickly moving to this scenario as the reversal downwells - Because the GFS has a weaker split signature then 'as yet' its response is muted- So all the people who blindly follow the GFS ( like Ian for example ) will be posting zonal charts etc for a day or so to come - but there will come a point ~ 24-36 hours time where even that model will slow the westerlies up.

I predict the inital wave of deep cold hits europe hard in ~ 6-7 days with masses of snow - The UK will be on the western periphery but could catch some- Its thereafter as the pattern slows things should continue to get better-

S

White Meadows
26 December 2018 08:14:14

 

who has ever said lack of data will deliver Christmas candy charts? 

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

Several have suggested it, I never said they guaranteed it. Look through from 23.12 onward and you see. Ballamar being one. I wonder when met office or some other reputable body will openly confirm how the theory damages their ability to forecast for 3 days? It would be interesting to read. 

doctormog
26 December 2018 08:22:17

I had actually scrolled through a load of charts in the early to mid January timeframe and overlooked the scenario hinted at in the Euro models. Based on the ECM 00z it appears to be transient but I’m not sure it was even there a couple of runs ago. Today is perhaps a transition day in terms of outlook or maybe it is just a Boxing Day blip.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_192_1.png

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

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