Not much change and of course their new catch phrase "Wintry Hazards". I believe because of the low confidence and model uncertainty they use the term "wintry hazards" to cover themselves because as previously said..

 

"Wintry hazards" can range from anything to slipping on ice to freezing fog to flooding, to freezing rain to heavy snow etc. So if any of these happen then they would have covered it in their forecast by stating it's a "wintry hazard!" So they don't face criticism from public. I also feel the "Wintry precipitation" is very vague too.

I agree with Gez - It would be an idea for the Met Office to make a glossary listing all their winter terminology/catch phrases they use in the forecasts so the public have a better understanding of their specific winter terminology phrases they always use.

As for the second part of the long range forecast "Greater than average chance of cold spells spreading across the whole of the UK at times with Wintry Hazards" - Remains a mystery - the shorter range models like GFS show anything but cold across the whole of the UK.   

They're just generalising with the terms 'Wintry Hazard' and 'wintry precipitation' as you'd expect in a long range forecast. 

It's positive that the signals are there for them currently, they'll be more specific in the shorter term if/when snow chances occur. Trying to predict snow at long range is a mugs game so rightly in my opinion they're highlighting the chance of a colder than average period with possible freezing fog, snow, ice etc etc .... all the things you'd associate with a colder spell in winter.  

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Reasonable amount of snow on Weather for the Week mid week on with cold ramper Bett. ‘may cause some disruption’ And a suggestion of more weather warnings for next weekend (whatever that means).

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Friday 22 Jan - Sunday 31 Jan

From Thursday onwards, rather cold and unsettled conditions look likely for most of the UK, as a low pressure system remains to the northeast. Northwesterly winds from this system are expected to bring frequent showers, particularly to north and west-facing coasts, and this will likely fall as snow over high level areas, and also down to lower levels at times. Atlantic low-pressure systems are expected to cross the south of the country at times, bringing rainfall and periods of slightly milder temperatures, and there will be a risk of snowfall on the boundary between the mild and cold air masses. Northern and central areas are more likely to be affected by wintry hazards during this period.

Sunday 31 Jan - Sunday 14 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for weaker than average westerly winds and for Atlantic low-pressure systems to track further south than normal. This will bring below-average temperatures to the north of the UK, with a greater than normal risk of wintry precipitation. Further south, there is a continued risk of unsettled conditions, with above-average rainfall and periods of slightly above average temperatures. There remains the potential for significant snowfall along the boundary between colder air to the north, and the milder air in the south, with the greatest risk across central and northern areas. Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells spreading across the whole UK at times with the associated risk of wintry hazards.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Friday 22 Jan - Sunday 31 Jan

From Thursday onwards, rather cold and unsettled conditions look likely for most of the UK, as a low pressure system remains to the northeast. Northwesterly winds from this system are expected to bring frequent showers, particularly to north and west-facing coasts, and this will likely fall as snow over high level areas, and also down to lower levels at times. Atlantic low-pressure systems are expected to cross the south of the country at times, bringing rainfall and periods of slightly milder temperatures, and there will be a risk of snowfall on the boundary between the mild and cold air masses. Northern and central areas are more likely to be affected by wintry hazards during this period.

Sunday 31 Jan - Sunday 14 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for weaker than average westerly winds and for Atlantic low-pressure systems to track further south than normal. This will bring below-average temperatures to the north of the UK, with a greater than normal risk of wintry precipitation. Further south, there is a continued risk of unsettled conditions, with above-average rainfall and periods of slightly above average temperatures. There remains the potential for significant snowfall along the boundary between colder air to the north, and the milder air in the south, with the greatest risk across central and northern areas. Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells spreading across the whole UK at times with the associated risk of wintry hazards.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Why can’t they get this right with the same issue almost everyday, it is a forecast updated to start on Friday and the second word is Thursday. Makes you wonder if anything has actually been updated which I suspect not!

Martin

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Why can’t they get this right with the same issue almost everyday, it is a forecast updated to start on Friday and the second word is Thursday. Makes you wonder if anything has actually been updated which I suspect not!

Martin

As far as I can work out, they usually update the time stamps at 4am and 4pm regardless of when the forecast is changed. For example our regional forecast currently has an update timestamp (at time of writing) of 16:00 UTC.

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Week ahead looks better than I thought in the S.E with less rain than I expected according to the BBC forecast. Pleasant tomorrow then maybe a bit wetter but not the forecast deluge in the S.E. Then becoming dry and more sunny with near or just below average temperatures and quite sunny with night frosts. Much better. Still a risk of snow in the north at times but no threat for the Southern half of the Country.

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Just watched the Countryfile forecast. Edinburgh stays cold all week and sits just to the north of the disruptive flooding rains which are causing concern for Yorkshire once more.
On Thursday gales and snow look likely on back edge of deepening depression in North Sea

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Week ahead looks better than I thought in the S.E with less rain than I expected according to the BBC forecast. Pleasant tomorrow then maybe a bit wetter but not the forecast deluge in the S.E. Then becoming dry and more sunny with near or just below average temperatures and quite sunny with night frosts. Much better. Still a risk of snow in the north at times but no threat for the Southern half of the Country.

GFS 5 day rainfall totals are 21mm IMBY so damp but not horribly so. I suspect that'll still be enough for some problems though just because of how saturated everything is.

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A serious weeks weather to come according to Chris Fawkes just now. Storm Christoph has been named and will bring 100-200mm of rain over North Wales, The Lakes, Pennines and Peaks on Tues & Wednesday. A large area likely to suffer serious flooding was highlighted across N England and right down into the Midlands.

Then as the storm moves NE Wed night and Thursday it will intensify in the North Sea and bring snow right down to sea level across Scotland with blizzards and a nasty snowfall across the southern Uplands

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A serious weeks weather to come according to Chris Fawkes just now. Storm Christoph has been named and will bring 100-200mm of rain over North Wales, The Lakes, Pennines and Peaks on Tues & Wednesday. A large area likely to suffer serious flooding was highlighted across N England and right down into the Midlands.

Then as the storm moves NE Wed night and Thursday it will intensify in the North Sea and bring snow right down to sea level across Scotland with blizzards and a nasty snowfall across the southern Uplands

Why he say nasty snowfall?  Snowfull are not nasty the rain are very nasty one. 

A serious weeks weather to come according to Chris Fawkes just now. Storm Christoph has been named and will bring 100-200mm of rain over North Wales, The Lakes, Pennines and Peaks on Tues & Wednesday. A large area likely to suffer serious flooding was highlighted across N England and right down into the Midlands.

Then as the storm moves NE Wed night and Thursday it will intensify in the North Sea and bring snow right down to sea level across Scotland away from eastern coastal areas with blizzards and a nasty snowfall across the southern Uplands

Fixed your post. 

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Saturday 23 Jan - Monday 1 Feb

Rather cold and unsettled conditions look likely for most of the UK, as a low pressure system remains to the northeast. Northwesterly winds from this system are expected to bring frequent showers, particularly to north and west-facing coasts, and this will likely fall as snow over high level areas, and also down to lower levels at times. Atlantic low-pressure systems are expected to cross the south/central parts of the country at times, bringing rainfall and periods of slightly milder temperatures, and there will be a risk of snowfall on the boundary between the mild and cold air masses. Northern and central areas are more likely to be affected by wintry hazards during this period. Temperatures mostly rather cold, but closer to average near approaching lows in the south.

Monday 1 Feb - Monday 15 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for weaker than average westerly winds and for Atlantic low-pressure systems to track further south than normal. This will bring below-average temperatures to the north of the UK, with a greater than normal risk of wintry precipitation. Further south, there is a continued risk of unsettled conditions, with above-average rainfall and periods of slightly above average temperatures. There remains the potential for significant snowfall along the boundary between colder air to the north, and the milder air in the south, with the greatest risk across central and northern areas. Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells spreading across the whole UK at times with the associated risk of wintry hazards.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

#wintryhazards 🙄

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#wintryhazards 🙄

Some areas could receive up to 150mms of rain - That is a 'wintry hazard!'

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BTW Matt Hugo just tweeted this:

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Fawksie saying some areas will get up to a foot of snow, may need ‘dug out’ and towns ‘cut off’ Risk of potential additional flooding seems of more concern however.

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Now, this is snow! Taken the last 10 days in Japan.

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Some areas could receive up to 150mms of rain - That is a 'wintry hazard!'

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BTW Matt Hugo just tweeted this:

Matt Hugo

@MattHugo81

"Latest EC Monthly provides further interest looking ahead. Latest charts highlight this potential second SSW warming and reversal by early Feb. Finally after not budging as yet this winter the MJO looks set to be on the move to phases that support further northern blocking too."

Yes it is but not as the Met Office calls it.

I think it’s time to euthanise this ‘Wintry Hazards’ cover all eventualities line that someone in Exeter or wherever thought would sound great at that meeting.

After all in the same context I can’t see them mentioning ‘Summer Hazards’ in the same way that ‘Wintry Hazards’ seemingly covers everything from snow to floods at the same time on these small islands in the North Atlantic. If you mean freezing just say it in the winter with the type of ice expected. Sleet, Snow, Black Frost, White Frost, Grass Frost preferably a proper Air Frost that leads to dry snow and a two week nationwide freeze up or if really pressed the old term ‘Wintry Showers’ though that’s still pushing it for me.

When it comes to Summer stay specific to weather types not cute two word liners and don’t mention anything as silly as a BBQ Summer or similar kiss of death terms that will come back to bite you when it inevitably goes Pete Tong. Where did that last one come from or was it a TWOism found only here?

Met Office please kill the term 'Wintry Hazards' before it gets out of control.

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Met Office please kill the term 'Wintry Hazards' before it gets out of control.

Couldn't agree more - flooding is a wintry hazard as is heavy snow and freezing fog and so on...? It's far too vague. I wonder if there will be a Spring Hazard and or "Autumnal hazard" terminology next?

Meanwhile - no shortage of cold in Siberia:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/extreme-cold-sends-temperatures-plummeting-to-73-below-zero-in-siberia/883874?utm_medium=push&utm_source=pushly&utm_content=777125&utm_campaign=pushly_manual

 

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Replace it with summery hazzards?

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Replace it with summery hazzards?

You could have a page titled: "Summery Hazzards" Summary.

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