Sunday 24 Jan - Tuesday 2 Feb

At the start of this period it will remain unsettled with north-westerly winds likely, bringing frequent showers and outbreaks of rain, particularly to the north and west. Likely falling as snow over high ground and at times to lower levels. Windy, especially in the north. Into this period unsettled conditions look most likely with low pressure dominant across the UK, bringing changeable weather with periods of rain, showers and strong winds at times. Northerly winds are expected at times, which increases the risk of snowfall especially in the north but may bring wintry hazards further south. In the south milder interludes may occur at times bringing at or above average temperatures. Overall temperatures are likely to be rather cold in the north but close to average in the south.

Tuesday 2 Feb - Tuesday 16 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though low pressure is likely to be dominant at first with an increased chance of northerly winds. This will therefore increase the risk of snowfall especially in the north along with colder than average temperatures. Potentially bringing wintry hazards more widely. Through mid-February higher pressure may develop for a time which would bring drier conditions with an increased likelihood of fog and cold nights.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Replace it with summery hazzards?

No No No

That opens the floodgates to sea fog, sea mist, Haar found on the North Sea and prevalent from May to August where it forms the climate of the Aberdonian ‘summer’ sic followed by hazardous (now here’s a proper meteorological term ‘Muck’ for the remainder of the year up there.

Don’t start me on wasps, hornets, caravans, Durdle Door, lack of thunderstorms/lightning, drought, heat haze, Spanish Plumes (not a proper one here for years mind you), ‘good growing weather’ i.e. moist horticultural growing conditions all too rare here nowadays in the Spring, metered water (bloody expensive, hard as bullets and knackers the kettle) and a lack of decent broccoli.

Sunday 24 Jan - Tuesday 2 Feb

At the start of this period it will remain unsettled with north-westerly winds likely, bringing frequent showers and outbreaks of rain, particularly to the north and west. Likely falling as snow over high ground and at times to lower levels. Windy, especially in the north. Into this period unsettled conditions look most likely with low pressure dominant across the UK, bringing changeable weather with periods of rain, showers and strong winds at times. Northerly winds are expected at times, which increases the risk of snowfall especially in the north but may bring wintry hazards further south. In the south milder interludes may occur at times bringing at or above average temperatures. Overall temperatures are likely to be rather cold in the north but close to average in the south.

 

Tuesday 2 Feb - Tuesday 16 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though low pressure is likely to be dominant at first with an increased chance of northerly winds. This will therefore increase the risk of snowfall especially in the north along with colder than average temperatures. Potentially bringing wintry hazards more widely. Through mid-February higher pressure may develop for a time which would bring drier conditions with an increased likelihood of fog and cold nights.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

The term 'Wintry Hazards' terminology continues I see!? - Becoming a habit I see?

One a more serious note - no return to any milder than average weather then? - Just milder interludes? Seems like the models could have it wrong next week or if they are right then this spell of milder weather next week will be brief I hope. Yes we all need to dry out after days of rain - another day of mild wet gunk here in SW and for many.

However, I notice the Met Office are now mentioning 'northerly winds'? - One to lookout in the models in the foreseeable future. 

 

The term 'Wintry Hazards' terminology continues I see!? - Becoming a habit I see?

One a more serious note - no return to any milder than average weather then? - Just milder interludes? Seems like the models could have it wrong next week or if they are right then this spell of milder weather next week will be brief I hope. Yes we all need to dry out after days of rain - another day of mild wet gunk here in SW and for many.

However, I notice the Met Office are now mentioning 'northerly winds'? - One to lookout in the models in the foreseeable future. 

The severe snow storms in Japan is the one should be use in here for wintry hazards. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-55708417

Some nice Glencoe images
http://www.winterhighland.info/cams/glencoe/

Yes and with more fresh snow on the way tomorrow and Thursday it could be a good weekend for skiing there - just a shame no one can go due to covid-19. I really feel the Gov have got this wrong - they should be encouraging people to go out esp to mountains/countryside and or the beach if they can.

I mean there is hardly going to be any covid on top of Cairgorms/Glencoe which is over 1,000ft ASL is there? Plus there is wind!

Viruses rarely spread outdoors anyway hence why we saw a decrease in cases over summer as more people were outdoors. - Just my thought anyway.

An Amber snow warning has been issued for the Borders

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

An unsettled month with variable temperatures.

_________________________________

Wednesday 20 January – Sunday 24 January

Stormy midweek with a colder weekend ahead.

The low pressure centre of Storm Christoph will move into the UK from the southwest on Wednesday afternoon. There will be bands of heavy rain for most of the day for England and Wales bringing a risk of further flooding. Scotland will start out mostly dry, but heavy snow bands will push into southern areas in the afternoon. Snow will mostly stay above 100m, but may occasionally fall lower than this. However, the warm front from Christoph will also bring in some mild air, with highs into double figure for some in southern England and Wales.

By Thursday, morning Storm Christoph will have tracked northwest through England and be sitting just east of Edinburgh. Heavy snow will persist through much of Thursday for Scotland. Again, most of the heavy snow accumulation will be above 100m, but wet snow may reach sea level in places. Strong winds will spread through eastern areas of England, but elsewhere in the county it will be a mostly sunny. Western coastal areas will have windy day with a few sharp showers.

From Friday and into the weekend, as Storm Christoph moves away to the northeast and fills, a northerly wind will bring some colder air from the North Atlantic.This will bring temperatures back down to near or below average. Some weak low pressure centres will keep things unsettled, cloudy, and feeling cold through the weekend, but strong winds and heavy rain are not expected.

Monday 25 January – Sunday 31 January

Turning wetter and milder with some cold snaps.

For the rest of January, a high pressure system building in strong over Greenland will play a major role in our weather pattern here in the UK. This is because the jet stream is being pushed further south in the Atlantic by this high. This more southward track of low pressure systems will allow them to pick up some milder sub-tropical air from the Atlantic and drag it into western Europe. This will be behind warm fronts, the first of which is likely to arrive on Monday 25th. This weather pattern is likely to persist through the week, so we will see low pressure systems bring milder air from the west and southwest along with plenty of rain and some stronger winds.

Between these lows there will be a few days of some sharp cold and dry weather as a brisk northerly wind develops. There is still some uncertainty on the exact timings of the frontal systems, but in general we can expect one every 2-4 days. As the next fronts move in over the colder air, there will be risks of some wintry weather for some areas, mainly the north.

Snow or freezing rain is possible, even to low levels at times. So, while a repeat of 2018's Beast of the East does not appear likely, that doesn't mean we will escape any potentially disruptive wintry weather.

Monday 1 February – Sunday 14 February

Staying unsettled and increasingly milder.

By early February, the high pressure system in Greenland is expected to begin to ease, but it will certainty take its time doing it. As it slowly weakens, lows will be able to move into Northwest Europe more freely, bringing some longer-lived mild spells associated with warm fronts. Between the low pressure systems, cold snaps are still likely, but will become increasingly shorter-lived. The temperature is likely to still be very changeable, shifting from a few degrees above average in the mild spells to several degrees below average in the cold snaps with some sharp frosts likely. Again, as with late January, some wintry weather is possible as fronts move in over the top of the colder air.

There are some signals that by mid-February it may tend to be milder most of the time.This will ease the risk for wintry weather (at least for everywhere but the Scottish Highlands!). However, there remains a significant risk that more prolonged cold could develop into mid-February, which would be caused by stronger high pressure to the north. Confidence is therefore very low at this range as computer model forecast skill as been very poor in recent days.

There is a high risk for more prolonged cold to develop into mid-February, which would be caused by stronger high pressure to the north. This would also be a drier pattern for the UK as the Atlantic low pressure systems mainly track south of us and head into France, Spain, and Portugal.

Further ahead

We will continue to monitor the Greenland high and try to pin down when the changeable and unsettled pattern will end, but after all, this is still Britain in winter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Monday 1 February – Sunday 14 February

Staying unsettled and increasingly milder.

By early February, the high pressure system in Greenland is expected to begin to ease, but it will certainty take its time doing it. As it slowly weakens, lows will be able to move into Northwest Europe more freely, bringing some longer-lived mild spells associated with warm fronts. Between the low pressure systems, cold snaps are still likely, but will become increasingly shorter-lived. The temperature is likely to still be very changeable, shifting from a few degrees above average in the mild spells to several degrees below average in the cold snaps with some sharp frosts likely. Again, as with late January, some wintry weather is possible as fronts move in over the top of the colder air.

There are some signals that by mid-February it may tend to be milder most of the time.This will ease the risk for wintry weather (at least for everywhere but the Scottish Highlands!). However, there remains a significant risk that more prolonged cold could develop into mid-February, which would be caused by stronger high pressure to the north. Confidence is therefore very low at this range as computer model forecast skill as been very poor in recent days.

There is a high risk for more prolonged cold to develop into mid-February, which would be caused by stronger high pressure to the north. This would also be a drier pattern for the UK as the Atlantic low pressure systems mainly track south of us and head into France, Spain, and Portugal.

Further ahead

We will continue to monitor the Greenland high and try to pin down when the changeable and unsettled pattern will end, but after all, this is still Britain in winter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

I don't get this? It's contradicting. How can they say "Turning Milder and by mid February it will turn milder for most of the time" yet then go to say "There remains a significant risk that more prolonged cold could develop by mid February." Then in the 3rd Paragraph say "There is a high risk of more prolonged cold weather to develop by Mid-February."

I mean what is it?

Another thing in their 2nd part of their update for the week on 25th January - 31st January. They say Turning wetter? As if it hasn't been wet enough already? When will/did it ever turn drier for it to turn wetter? 

As I read it, it is basically saying that expect more of the same but if the GH does build during late January early February then we could get some cold snowy weather. I would think they are not yet sure how the latest SSW will play out.

Monday 25 Jan - Wednesday 3 Feb

At the start of this period it will remain unsettled with north-westerly winds probable, bringing frequent showers and outbreaks of rain, particularly to the north and west. This will likely fall as snow over high ground and may at times to lower levels too. Windy, especially in the north. Further into this period unsettled conditions look most likely with low pressure dominant across the UK, bringing changeable weather with periods of rain, showers, and strong winds. Northerly winds are expected at times, increasing the risk of snowfall especially in the north but may also bring wintry hazards further south. In the south, milder interludes may occur bringing at or above average temperatures. Overall temperatures are likely to be rather cold in the north but close to average in the south.

Wednesday 3 Feb - Wednesday 17 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though low pressure is likely to be dominant at first with an increased chance of northerly winds. This will therefore increase the risk of snowfall especially in the north along with colder than average temperatures. Potentially bringing wintry hazards more widely. Through mid-February higher pressure may develop for a time which would bring drier conditions with an increased likelihood of fog and cold nights.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Cold with further wintry showers in the north, perhaps some more organised rain, sleet and snow across the south at times. Widespread overnight frost but sunshine for many by day.

Something to watch 

Met Office 10 Day trend:

https://youtu.be/ZFicNaD-unE

He's certainly focused on early next week and the potential for the low moving in from the Atlantic hitting colder air to produce a period of snow.

Could be interesting!

My BBC Weather app now showing heavy snow showers for Sunday 

Ben Rich showing snow across England and Wales on Sunday , could  give a covering at least ..........my words not his 

My BBC Weather app now showing heavy snow showers for Sunday 

Same here - nada on Met Office auto forecast though, and Arpege not interested.

 

Same here - nada on Met Office auto forecast though, and Arpege not interested.

The Beeb seem fairly confident ..................well confident enough to show a band crossing the UK 

BBC is based on ECM which indeed does show the system crossing the country Sunday, with a band of snow N England southwards, heaviest as it reaches East Anglia and the SE.

Still too far out to pin down details.