Might get up early to at least see some snowfall Neil
Miserable cold, snowless and mainly dull winter fare so far this year
Mind you Southerly tracking lows as shown by the GFS 06z output are perfect for snowfall in the Chilterns - let's hope it turns out that way.
There always seems to be a trade off between deep cold and dry with marginal temps and snow possibilities.
The Scandi High driving lows from the east or north east does seem to be getting more difficult to advect to our shores.
At least it won't be mild (all of the time)!

 

A quick push through of any leading snow tomorrow for parts of the SE. BBC forecast Sunday had highs 7-8C in the south on Sunday - I’d class that as near normal rather than ‘cold’. 
With next week looking fairly average temp wise it’s all quite uninspiring to be honest.

It's showing six hours of sleet and snow for here, followed by a hour of steady rain and two hours of patchy stuff. I think that's why the warning has gone out.

The warning suggests potentially 5-10cm for higher ground and as we're at 130 metres it might be quite 'interesting'.

For here next week it looks like 1-2 days with average temperatures (7-8c) before turning cold again. Maybe not hugely inspiring but at least it's the cold version of seasonal.

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Still not convinced by snow risk tomorrow even for central belt Scotland at height. But will keep a close eye... onset seems a bit earlier overnight

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‘not as cold next week, unsettled and rather windy’ BBC 1255 weather
Seems a slight change as midweek for Scotland was originally shown as <5dc and sleet everyday.

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Even yesterdays was forecasting -5C last night for here. Think it probably hadn't been updated as it didnt get below 0.4C and I doubt anyone in the region got that low. 

Lowest I can see in the SE was a mere -1.9C at Kenley. Few places even reached -1C in the south so that forecast was nonsense - the skies were never going to be clear enough to allow it.

Night-time British Isles weather extremes (reading.ac.uk)

 

Quite surprised to see the snow warning for tomorrow extend this far southwest. The temperature when the ppn arrives is forecast to be around 3C here and rising so any snow will be very transient round here. Can I be bothered to set an early alarm to at least see some falling snow, perhaps?

 

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Wednesday 20 Jan - Friday 29 Jan

Rain and strong winds clear from the southeast during Wednesday. Most areas will see bright and mostly dry conditions following, but showers will affect the north and northwest. From Thursday onwards rather cold and unsettled conditions look likely for most of the UK, northwesterly winds will bring frequent showers, particularly to north and west-facing coasts, falling as snow over high ground and also down to lower levels at times. Atlantic low-pressure systems are expected to cross the south of the county at times, bringing rainfall and periods of slightly milder temperatures, and there will be a risk of snowfall on the boundary between the mild and cold airmasses. Northern and central areas are more likely to be affected by wintry hazards during this period.

Friday 29 Jan - Friday 12 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for weaker than average westerly winds and for Atlantic low-pressure systems to track further south than normal. This will bring below-average temperatures to the north of the UK, as well as a higher likelihood of wintry precipitation. Further south, there is a continued risk of unsettled conditions, with above-average rainfall and periods of slightly above average temperatures. There remains the potential for significant snowfall along the boundary between colder air to the north and the milder air in the south, with the greatest risk across central and northern areas. Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells spreading across the whole UK at times with the associated risk of wintry hazards

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Wednesday 20 Jan - Friday 29 Jan

Rain and strong winds clear from the southeast during Wednesday. Most areas will see bright and mostly dry conditions following, but showers will affect the north and northwest. From Thursday onwards rather cold and unsettled conditions look likely for most of the UK, northwesterly winds will bring frequent showers, particularly to north and west-facing coasts, falling as snow over high ground and also down to lower levels at times. Atlantic low-pressure systems are expected to cross the south of the county at times, bringing rainfall and periods of slightly milder temperatures, and there will be a risk of snowfall on the boundary between the mild and cold airmasses. Northern and central areas are more likely to be affected by wintry hazards during this period.

Friday 29 Jan - Friday 12 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for weaker than average westerly winds and for Atlantic low-pressure systems to track further south than normal. This will bring below-average temperatures to the north of the UK, as well as a higher likelihood of wintry precipitation. Further south, there is a continued risk of unsettled conditions, with above-average rainfall and periods of slightly above average temperatures. There remains the potential for significant snowfall along the boundary between colder air to the north and the milder air in the south, with the greatest risk across central and northern areas. Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells spreading across the whole UK at times with the associated risk of wintry hazards

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

What's up with the Met office and their new catchphrase "Wintry Hazards" over the past week? Will this be the norm? It's very vague like the so called wintry precipitation or wintry showers- i,e slipping on ice is a wintry hazard too as is freezing fog etc. 

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What's up with the Met office and their new catchphrase "Wintry Hazards" over the past week? Will this be the norm? It's very vague like the so called wintry precipitation or wintry showers- i,e slipping on ice is a wintry hazard too as is freezing fog etc. 

I think you have somewhat answered your own question.

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What's up with the Met office and their new catchphrase "Wintry Hazards" over the past week? Will this be the norm? It's very vague like the so called wintry precipitation or wintry showers- i,e slipping on ice is a wintry hazard too as is freezing fog etc. 

I really don't understand this sudden bout of irritation over 'wintry showers' and 'wintry precipitation'.  They are expressions that been in use for decades; the alternative is to talk of "precipitation in the form of rain, sleet, snow or hail" and I don't think there's much doubt which is tidier.

As for 'wintry hazards', the forecasts are aimed at the public, not enthusiasts like us.  A hazard is a hazard and that needs to be communicated. 

 

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I really don't understand this sudden bout of irritation over 'wintry showers' and 'wintry precipitation'.  They are expressions that been in use for decades; the alternative is to talk of "precipitation in the form of rain, sleet, snow or hail" and I don't think there's much doubt which is tidier.

As for 'wintry hazards', the forecasts are aimed at the public, not enthusiasts like us.  A hazard is a hazard and that needs to be communicated. 

 

Yes the latter "Wintry Hazards" was not used pre winter 20/21 - i just think it could be explained more and in greater detail too - it's far too vague and doesn't look professional for organisations like the Met Office.

 

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Just taken a screen capture of latest BBC forecast  for the snowfall event tomorrow: - Looks like cold rain for most with snowfall in the usual areas - maybe STEVE Aka Gusty could see a flake or two and maybe your Kieran/Moomin?

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Would be very surprised to see 10-20cm anywhere. From that to 8dc an hour or so later??

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Amber warning issued here.

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Would be very surprised to see 10-20cm anywhere. From that to 8dc an hour or so later??

I think the key word in those predictions is (up to) that way if you get a 3mm dusting they were right and if you get 10cm they were also right.

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Amber warning issued here.

Me to,  hopefully something decent tomorrow. 

 

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When was 10cm of snow classed as a amber warning?

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When was 10cm of snow classed as a amber warning?

heavy snow @ rush hour = high impact 😋

When was 10cm of snow classed as a amber warning?

 

When it's down south

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Yes the latter "Wintry Hazards" was not used pre winter 20/21 - i just think it could be explained more and in greater detail too - it's far too vague and doesn't look professional for organisations like the Met Office.

 

It would be good if the Met Office had a glossary of weather terms that they use in their forecasts. They must have their own list of what constitutes a wintry hazard or even a wintry shower, so why not publicise it if they want to communicate clearly? 

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Amber Warning? In all honesty it is a bit embarrassing for 5-10cm transient snowfall on a Saturday morning in a fairly rural part of the country. What is the worse that can happen? There was more snow yesterday (and last Friday) around here, that fell during the working week/rush hour/highly populated areas and didn't melt afterwards meaning the problems went on and on and on.

 

Don't mean that to sound bitter by the way, i do hope you get a good snowfall just perplexed by the warning system. 

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